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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on June 28th when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. It was launched into space during the early hours of June 25th by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun's southern hemisphere. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

THAT NOVA YOU'VE HEARD ABOUT IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE: By the time you finish reading this story, there could be a new star in the night sky. Recurrent nova T CrB (pronounced "tee-core-bore") is poised on the knife edge of a once-in-a-lifetime explosion.

"Our best estimate for the time of eruption is close to now," says Brad Schaefer, Professor Emeritus of Astronomy at Louisiana State University.

Schaefer is a leading expert on T CrB. He's been studying the star since he was a teenager. "When I was 18 year old, I calculated when T CrB should erupt again, and I've been waiting for this moment ever since," he says.

Above: A T CrB infographic created by South Korean astronomer Bum-Suk Yeom

T CrB is a "recurrent nova." That means it erupts not just once, but over and over again. Its explosion in 1866 was the first nova astronomers had ever seen in detail. "No one knew what caused it," says Schaefer. Another blast in 1946 established its period (79 or 80 years) and led researchers to the modern interpretation:

Located 3000 light years away, T CrB is a binary star system consisting of an ancient red giant circled by a hot white dwarf. Hydrogen from the red giant spills onto the surface of the white dwarf. It takes about 80 years to accumulate a critical mass, then--BOOM--a thermonuclear explosion occurs. "It's an H-bomb that blows up on an incredibly large scale," says Schaefer.

After an explosion, the process resets and repeats. Looking at old light curves, Schaefer realized that T CrB tells us when it's about to explode. Approximately 1.1 years before each blow-up, there's a "pre-eruption dip" in brightness. Amateur astronomers working with the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) detected the pre-eruption dip in March 2023:

Above: The pre-eruption dip in March 2023

"If the star behaves in 2023-2024 as it did in 1945-1946, then the next eruption should take place in 2024.4+-0.3," says Schaefer. "That's May 2024 plus or minus a few months."

The explosion will be visible to the naked eye. Schaefer expects it to be about as bright as the North Star (2nd magnitude). When it blows, T CrB will burst forth as an extra jewel in the "Northern Crown" (the constellation Corona Borealis), easy to find high in the summer night sky between Hercules and Bootes.

"T CrB will be the brightest nova for generations," says Schaefer. "It's a chance for everyone in the world to step outside, look up, and see the hellfire."

Observing tips: (1) Tonight, go outside and see what Corona Borealis normally looks like: sky map. Then, when the nova explodes, you'll be able to tell the difference. (2) Sign up for Space Weather Alerts. All subscribers (Basic and Pro) will receive an immediate text message when the nova explodes.

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GEOMAGNETIC BLACK PEARL: On May 10, 2024, a CME slammed into Earth's magnetic field, sparking the biggest geomagnetic storm in 35 years. Moments later, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon directly into the storm. The Geomagnetic Black Pearl went along for the ride:

You can have it for $279.95. Measuring 9 mm in diameter, and mounted inside a sterling silver heart, this premium Tahitian pearl floated through the stratosphere for 3 hours while sensors onboard the balloon's payload measured the storm's radiation.

Later, when the sun set and the sky grew dark, red and green auroras danced above the Sierra Nevada mountains of California where the balloon was launched. A picture of these auroras is included with the pearl, along with a greeting card showing the necklace in flight.

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On Jun 26, 2024, the network reported 13 fireballs.
(13 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:

Asteroid	Date(UT)	Miss Distance	Velocity (km/s)	Diameter (m)
2024 LG5	2024-Jun-21	6.1 LD	7.5	17
2024 LO2	2024-Jun-21	14.2 LD	9.1	28
2024 LJ	2024-Jun-22	8.8 LD	18.5	67
2024 KN1	2024-Jun-23	14.7 LD	4.6	28
2024 KJ	2024-Jun-25	13.7 LD	4.5	25
2024 LO5	2024-Jun-25	5.1 LD	7.9	19
2019 NJ	2024-Jun-27	17.2 LD	10.1	66
415029	2024-Jun-27	17.3 LD	25.9	2304
2022 MM1	2024-Jun-28	7.8 LD	10.9	39
2010 XN	2024-Jun-28	14.1 LD	11.3	52
2022 HD1	2024-Jun-29	16.5 LD	7.2	63
2024 MK	2024-Jun-29	0.8 LD	9.4	154
2017 MB3	2024-Jun-30	5 LD	6.5	30
2024 JJ25	2024-Jun-30	10.5 LD	9.4	117
2024 LJ2	2024-Jul-01	19.8 LD	10.4	83
2022 BY39	2024-Jul-02	13.2 LD	3	4
2024 LH	2024-Jul-02	4.4 LD	4.3	32
2024 KQ1	2024-Jul-04	14.9 LD	6.9	57
2022 YS5	2024-Jul-11	11 LD	5.8	38
2024 BY15	2024-Jul-16	16.2 LD	0.7	16
2024 LY2	2024-Jul-23	12 LD	7.8	87
2011 MW1	2024-Jul-25	10.1 LD	8	120
2011 AM24	2024-Jul-26	16.8 LD	6.2	281
523664	2024-Jul-28	14.9 LD	23.7	680
2020 PN1	2024-Aug-02	18 LD	5.5	29
2023 HB7	2024-Aug-05	14.6 LD	6.1	32
2017 TU1	2024-Aug-05	10.1 LD	10.1	22
2024 KH3	2024-Aug-10	14.6 LD	11.4	197
2021 GY1	2024-Aug-16	17.7 LD	6.3	59
2024 JV33	2024-Aug-19	12 LD	11.1	220
2022 BF2	2024-Aug-19	19.7 LD	16.4	91

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.

Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

Essential web links

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

The official U.S. government space weather bureau

Atmospheric Optics

The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.

Solar Dynamics Observatory

Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.

STEREO

3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory

Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.

SolarMonitor.org

information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary

Starlink Satellite Statistics

current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics.

The Aerospace Corporation

Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries

Daily Sunspot Summaries

from the NOAA Space Environment Center

NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts

fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.

Aurora 30 min forecast

from the NOAA Space Environment Center

Live Aurora Webcam

from Lights over Lapland

Heliophysics

the underlying science of space weather

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