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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Jul 03 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
70
% |
70
% |
CLASS X |
20
% |
20
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Jul 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
35
% |
40
% |
MINOR |
35
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
20
% |
05
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
20
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
15
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
15
% |
60
% |
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|
|
 |
|
|
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This is an AI Free Zone: AI is everywhere -- except here. Spaceweather.com is written by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. If you find a mistake, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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WEEKEND AURORA WATCH--CONTINUED: Last night's strong geomagnetic storm is over, but another storm could be in the offing. NOAA models suggest that a second CME will graze Earth during the late hours of July 4th. If it makes contact, this CME could cause a G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storm. The auroras would not be as bright as last night, but fireworks photos might capture an unusually colorful background. Aurora Alerts: SMS Text
MIDSUMMER GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Midsummer auroras are rare, but last night (July 3/4) they blanketed the USA during a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. The display was caused by a CME strike on July 3rd, which was hurled in our direction by an X1-class solar flare three days earlier. After the impact, observers in more than 30 US states reported seeing auroras.
"Holy smokes!" says Roger Hill, who photographed the geomagnetic glow through an electrical storm over Bennett, Colorado (+39.8N latitude):
"The geomagnetic storm became strong just as a cluster of severe thunderstorms formed east of our house," says Hill. "The result? A *really cool* photo-op."
We've also received reports from New Mexico, Kentucky, Utah, Colorado, Washington, Pennsylvania, New York, Idaho, Virginia, Wyoming, Ohio, Oregon, Nevada, California, Arizona--and almost every northern-tier state near the US-Canadian border.
It is unusual to have such a strong display so close to the summer solstice. Two reasons: (1) Short summer nights narrow the observing window. Persistent twilight can make even the strongest auroras impossible to see. (2) Auroras dislike solstices. The same Russell-McPherron Effect that boosts auroras around equinoxes also suppresses auroras around solstices. It took an "X-class CME" to overcome these obstacles.
Did you miss the show? Next time get a heads-up from our new Backyard Astronomy Alert Service.
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
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Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On July 4, 2026, the network reported 43 fireballs.
(43 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On July 4, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 MJ1 |
2026-Jun-30 |
1.5 LD |
4.3 |
12 |
| 2026 MD |
2026-Jun-30 |
7.8 LD |
11 |
45 |
| 2026 MW2 |
2026-Jun-30 |
5.1 LD |
9.7 |
23 |
| 523808 |
2026-Jul-04 |
9.1 LD |
16.8 |
479 |
| 2026 MP3 |
2026-Jul-05 |
10.9 LD |
18.1 |
46 |
| 2023 YO1 |
2026-Jul-05 |
6.5 LD |
2.7 |
23 |
| 2026 MO1 |
2026-Jul-08 |
5.9 LD |
9.4 |
35 |
| 2026 MQ1 |
2026-Jul-10 |
11.8 LD |
10.4 |
45 |
| 2007 AA2 |
2026-Jul-11 |
17.8 LD |
7.2 |
43 |
| 2026 MQ3 |
2026-Jul-16 |
12.4 LD |
8.6 |
147 |
| 2025 PN7 |
2026-Jul-17 |
11.6 LD |
2.6 |
19 |
| 2025 MB90 |
2026-Jul-19 |
5 LD |
9.6 |
54 |
| 2020 OM |
2026-Jul-21 |
9.1 LD |
9.5 |
15 |
| 2026 KU3 |
2026-Jul-24 |
7.7 LD |
8.6 |
80 |
| 2020 UR1 |
2026-Jul-25 |
18.8 LD |
7.6 |
28 |
| 2015 BF |
2026-Jul-26 |
17.3 LD |
12.5 |
17 |
| 2025 OW |
2026-Jul-30 |
16.1 LD |
20.1 |
70 |
| 2024 RM10 |
2026-Aug-05 |
13.6 LD |
7.5 |
24 |
| 173561 |
2026-Aug-09 |
13.1 LD |
16.2 |
756 |
| 2019 NY2 |
2026-Aug-10 |
6.6 LD |
9.6 |
195 |
| 2016 BV14 |
2026-Aug-10 |
19.1 LD |
21.1 |
162 |
| 2013 QC11 |
2026-Aug-13 |
14.5 LD |
19 |
172 |
| 2025 AL2 |
2026-Aug-16 |
2.8 LD |
12.5 |
100 |
| 2025 DU7 |
2026-Aug-19 |
8.7 LD |
2.9 |
5 |
| 2025 FY11 |
2026-Aug-20 |
19.2 LD |
3.5 |
6 |
| 2023 RL |
2026-Aug-25 |
12.9 LD |
4.8 |
7 |
| 523609 |
2026-Aug-27 |
18.5 LD |
22.7 |
441 |
| 2025 QM9 |
2026-Aug-28 |
15.2 LD |
11.1 |
20 |
| 221455 |
2026-Aug-28 |
9.4 LD |
19 |
443 |
| 2017 BP31 |
2026-Aug-28 |
11.2 LD |
20.5 |
382 |
| 2007 EK |
2026-Aug-30 |
10.9 LD |
9.1 |
5 |
| 2017 RH16 |
2026-Aug-31 |
8.7 LD |
12.1 |
21 |
| 2025 CL3 |
2026-Sep-01 |
9.6 LD |
13.5 |
30 |
| 2018 RD2 |
2026-Sep-01 |
19.5 LD |
9.6 |
14 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
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current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
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Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
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from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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the
underlying science of space weather |
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