| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 1 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 3.5 nT Bz: 0.5 nT north more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 2258 UT Coronal Holes: 14 Dec 18 Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 16th. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds (NLCs) has begun! NASA's AIM spacecraft is detecting electric blue clouds at the edge of space over Antarctica. Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar Updated at: 12-14-2018 16:55:02 SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2018 Dec 14 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 01 % | 01 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2018 Dec 14 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 10 % | 20 % | MINOR | 01 % | 05 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 20 % | MINOR | 15 % | 30 % | SEVERE | 15 % | 25 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Lights Over Lapland has a brand-new website full of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Take a look at our aurora activities and book your once-in-a-lifetime trip with us today! | | | GEOMAGNETIC UNREST PREDICTED: A shallow hole in the sun's atmosphere is facing Earth, spewing a minor stream of solar wind toward our planet. Polar geomagnetic unrest is likely when the gaseous material arrives on Dec. 16th. This event will probably not rise to the level of a geomagnetic storm, but could spark Arctic auroras anyway. Free: Aurora Alerts. METEORS FROM A ROCK COMET: The annual Geminid meteor shower is peaking today, Dec. 14th, as Earth passes through a gravelly stream of debris from rock comet 3200 Phaethon. Observers with the International Meteor Organization are reporting more than 85 meteors per hour. Amirreza Kamkar photographed this bright Geminid streaking over the Lut Desert in Kerman, Iran: On the night of Dec. 13th, I was taking nightscape images in the Lut Desert, a natural World Heritage site located near Kerman, Iran," says Kamkar. "As moonlight illuminated the scene, making shadows in the foreground, a Geminid cut through the sky overhead. It was like being in a science fiction movie!" Geminid meteors may be seen at any time of night, but the best time is during the hours before dawn when the constellation Gemini is high in the sky. Orient yourself using this sky map. Realtime Meteor Photo Gallery CHRISTMAS COMET WIRTANEN: Comet 46P/Wirtanen is approaching Earth for an historic encounter on Dec. 16th--one of the 10 closest comet flybys of the Space Age. Some people are calling it the "Christmas Comet." Indeed, it seems to be an excellent tree-topper: "I took this picture from the forest outside Bleikvassli, Norway, on Dec. 12th" says photographer Tommy Eliassen. "The comet is in the constellation Taurus, which I positioned behind a tall tree for this Christmas composition." Although the comet is coming very close to Earth, it is not very bright. Wirtanen's icy nucleus is small (~1 km) compared to greater comets such as Hale-Bopp (~30 km) and Halley (~15 km). At the moment it is glowing like a 4th magnitude star, barely visible to the unaided eye. Now for the good news: This comet is an easy target for digital cameras with exposures as short as 10 to 30 seconds. Astrophotographer Juan Carlos Casado offers some advice to novices: "Use Raw file format, a fast lens (at least f/2.8) and ISO settings between 1600 and 3200. The exposure will depend on the focal length. I normally use the 500 rule–that is, exposure = 500 / focal length (mm). It also helps in areas with light pollution to use an antipollution filter. I am now using Optolong L-Pro clip filter which gives excellent color balance." On the nights of closest approach, 46P/Wirtanen can be found in the constellation Taurus high in the sky before midnight. Sky watchers in the northern hemisphere may orient themselves using these sky maps: Dec. 14, Dec. 15, Dec. 16 Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery CHRISTMAS GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: So far in 2018, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have launched 42 space weather balloons to the stratosphere, measuring cosmic rays over 3 continents, 2 hemispheres, and 7 different US states. You can help them pay their helium bill by purchasing a Christmas gift from the edge of space: Every item in the Earth to Sky Store has flown to the stratosphere alongside an array of cosmic ray sensors. Carried aloft by giant balloons, these unique gifts travel above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out! Don't forget to enter coupon code "SPACESANTA" at checkout for a 10% holiday discount. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Dec. 14, 2018, the network reported 284 fireballs. (209 , 69 sporadics, 3 , 2 , 1) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On December 14, 2018 there were 1936 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2018 XV2 | 2018-Dec-08 | 13.5 LD | 6.4 | 27 | 2018 XP2 | 2018-Dec-08 | 1 LD | 25.3 | 9 | 2018 XW | 2018-Dec-08 | 9.3 LD | 8.3 | 38 | 2013 VX4 | 2018-Dec-09 | 4.1 LD | 6.6 | 65 | 2001 XG1 | 2018-Dec-10 | 7.9 LD | 14.2 | 78 | 2018 VX6 | 2018-Dec-10 | 16.6 LD | 11.2 | 74 | 2018 XA2 | 2018-Dec-10 | 17.9 LD | 6.2 | 16 | 2018 XM2 | 2018-Dec-12 | 14 LD | 12.9 | 31 | 2018 XL1 | 2018-Dec-12 | 2.4 LD | 6.2 | 15 | 2018 XJ1 | 2018-Dec-13 | 5.6 LD | 6.3 | 18 | 2015 XX169 | 2018-Dec-13 | 17 LD | 5.8 | 12 | 2018 XE2 | 2018-Dec-14 | 10.7 LD | 21.1 | 39 | 2018 VO9 | 2018-Dec-15 | 2.6 LD | 2.9 | 15 | 2018 XH1 | 2018-Dec-15 | 11.6 LD | 6.7 | 25 | 2017 XQ60 | 2018-Dec-21 | 11.3 LD | 15.6 | 47 | 163899 | 2018-Dec-22 | 7.4 LD | 6.2 | 1232 | 418849 | 2018-Dec-23 | 16.6 LD | 17.6 | 269 | 2014 AD16 | 2019-Jan-04 | 12.9 LD | 9.4 | 12 | 2016 AZ8 | 2019-Jan-07 | 11.6 LD | 9.1 | 224 | 2013 YM2 | 2019-Jan-09 | 7.3 LD | 4.3 | 20 | 2018 XN | 2019-Jan-14 | 11.9 LD | 5.6 | 59 | 2013 CW32 | 2019-Jan-29 | 13.9 LD | 16.4 | 148 | 2013 RV9 | 2019-Feb-06 | 17.9 LD | 5.9 | 68 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%. E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight. The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level. To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight. SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015: The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes: In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather | | If you are a Youtuber and want to buy real Youtube views than try out Buyrealsocial.com for the best results possible! | | To find reviews of new online casino sites in the UK try The Casino DB where there are hundreds of online casino reviews complete with bonuses and ratings. Looking for a new online casino? Try Casimpo the new site dedicated to making online casino simple and easy for all. | | These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! | | | | | | | | | | | | ©2018 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. | |