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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 347.7 km/sec
density: 5.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2347 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A1
2126 UT Oct06
24-hr: A1
0615 UT Oct06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2300 UT
Daily Sun: 06 Oct 18
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 06 Oct 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day
2018 total: 159 days (57%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 06 Oct 2018


The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 06 Oct 2018

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.7 nT
Bz: 0.5 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2347 UT
Coronal Holes: 06 Oct 18

Solar wind flowing from this large coronal hole should reach Earth on Oct. 7-8. Credit: SDO/AIA
Noctilucent Clouds The season for noctilucent clouds (NLCs) in the northern hemisphere has come to an end. Images from NASA's AIM spacecraft show no NLCs around the north pole.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 09-03-2018 14:55:02
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2018 Oct 05 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2018 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
35 %
MINOR
01 %
35 %
SEVERE
01 %
20 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
20 %
05 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
10 %
75 %
 
Saturday, Oct. 6, 2018
What's up in space
       
 

Lights Over Lapland has a brand-new website full of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Take a look at our aurora activities and book your once-in-a-lifetime trip with us today!

 

G2-CLASS GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A large canyon-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere is facing Earth and spewing a stream of solar wind in our direction. NOAA forecasters say there is a 75% chance of geomagnetic storms on Oct. 7-8 when the gaseous material arrives. Storm levels could reach category G2. Such storms can affect migratory animals that use magnetic cues for navigation and spark auroras visible in the USA as far south as, e.g., Maine, Michigan and Washington. Free: Aurora alerts.

GIGANTIC JETS SEEN FROM SPACE: Last month, Frankie Lucena watched a barrage of Gigantic Jets shoot up from decaying Tropical Storm Isaac as it passed his home in Puerto Rico. Using Lucena's video of the outburst, researchers have pinpointed the same jets in images from the GOES-16 satellite looking straight down on the storm:

Gigantic Jets are a powerful form of upward-directed lightning related to sprites. Before 2017, Gigantic Jet sightings numbered in the dozens. All by itself, Tropical Storm Isaac produced at least 8 Gigantic Jets in a single night. Researchers still don't know why some storms produce many of these exotic bolts, and others none.

The satellite images of Isaac's Gigantic Jets come from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) onboard GOES-16. GLM is a near-infrared/optical sensor that can detect momentary changes in an optical scene, indicating the presence of lightning in cloudtops. "This experimental method of analyzing a Gigantic Jet was first thought of by Levi Boggs of the Florida Institute of Technology and he is currently writing a paper on this subject," says Lucena.

Realtime Gigantic Jet Photo Gallery

FLY ME TO THE MOONSTONE: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Nothing says "I love you" like a moonstone from the edge of space. On June 12th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew this moonstone wrapped in a sterling silver Celtic love knot 34.1 km (111,877 feet) above Earth's surface:

You can have it for $149.95. The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. Sales support the Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray ballooning program and hands-on STEM research.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

COMING SOON, THE COMET OF THE YEAR: Astronomers are calling Comet 46P/Wirtanen the "comet of the year." On Dec. 16th, the kilometer-wide ball of dirty ice will come within 11.5 million km of Earth, potentially making it a naked eye object for several weeks. However, it's not the comet of the year yet. "For now, Comet Wirtanen is still rather faint," reports Maximilian Teodorescu, who photographed it from Magurele, Romania:

That tiny fuzzball near the center of Teodorescu's image is 46P/Wirtanen passing through the southern constellation Fornax on Oct. 5th. Forecasters expect it to brighten at least 200-fold by December. Comets are frequently unpredictable so the peak brightness is uncertain. Some forecasters think 46P/Wirtanen could ultimately reach magnitude +3 or +4, making it not a Great Comet but a very good one, visible to the unaided eye and a wonderful target for binoculars or small telescopes.

Comet Wirtanen passes through the inner solar system every 5.4 years. Right now it is near the orbit of Mars, and it is heading in our direction. Click on the image to explore the comet's approach, courtesy of NASA/JPL:

Got a picture of Comet 46P/Wirtanen? Submit it here.

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery


Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Oct. 6, 2018, the network reported 64 fireballs.
(64 , 0 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On October 6, 2018 there were 1923 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2018 SM3
2018-Oct-02
18.5 LD
8.3
30
2018 TB
2018-Oct-02
4.8 LD
8.5
37
2018 SD3
2018-Oct-02
5.4 LD
7.7
9
2018 TP
2018-Oct-02
18.1 LD
17.5
146
2018 SC3
2018-Oct-04
6.2 LD
8
21
2018 SQ2
2018-Oct-04
18.7 LD
7.8
37
2018 SP1
2018-Oct-04
15.3 LD
16.8
85
2018 TU
2018-Oct-05
2 LD
11.7
11
2018 EB
2018-Oct-07
15.5 LD
15.1
155
2018 SG3
2018-Oct-08
6.7 LD
5.9
14
2018 SM2
2018-Oct-10
11.4 LD
10.1
89
2018 SL3
2018-Oct-15
9.1 LD
13.4
34
2014 US7
2018-Oct-17
3.2 LD
8.7
19
2013 UG1
2018-Oct-18
10.4 LD
13.4
123
2016 GC221
2018-Oct-18
8.7 LD
14.4
39
475534
2018-Oct-29
7.5 LD
18.1
204
2002 VE68
2018-Nov-04
14.7 LD
8.6
282
2010 VQ
2018-Nov-07
15.6 LD
3.8
10
2009 WB105
2018-Nov-25
15.2 LD
18.9
71
2008 WD14
2018-Nov-27
7.4 LD
9.3
93
2001 WO15
2018-Nov-28
13.6 LD
11.7
107
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather
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