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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 411.1 km/sec
density: 8.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A7
2116 UT Oct03
24-hr: A7
2310 UT Oct02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2300 UT
Daily Sun: 03 Oct 19
Decaying sunspot AR2749 has a magnetic polarity that identifies it as a member of old Solar Cycle 24. It poses no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
Sunspot number: 11
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 03 Oct 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2019 total: 199 days (72%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 03 Oct 2019


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.79
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 03 Oct 2019

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 03 Oct 2019

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2019 are near a Space Age peak.



Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.4% High
30-day change: +0.9%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 03 Oct 2019 @ 1500 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.7 nT
Bz: -1.0 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 03 Oct 19

Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on Oct. 3rd or 4th.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern season for noctilucent clouds has ended. NASA's AIM spacecraft is no longer detecting electric-blue clouds around the Arctic Circle.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 09-03-2019 13:55:02 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2019 Oct 03 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2019 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
05 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
25 %
25 %
SEVERE
25 %
25 %
 
Thursday, Oct. 3, 2019
What's up in space
       
 

Solar minimum is here - but even now strangely beautiful auroras are dancing around the poles. Deep inside the Arctic Circle, the expert guides of Aurora Holidays in Utsjoki, Finland, can help you chase them. Book now!

 

SUNSET CONJUNCTION: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look southwest. The crescent Moon is passing by Jupiter only a few degrees away. Try to catch them before the sky fades completely black. A bright conjunction of Jupiter and the Moon framed by twilight blue is extra beautiful. Sky map: Oct 3rd.

COSMIC RAYS ARE NEARING A SPACE AGE RECORD: Solar Minimum is underway, and it's a deep one. Sunspot counts suggest it is one of the deepest minima of the past century. The sun's magnetic field has become weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron monitors at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, show that cosmic rays are percentage points away from a Space Age record:

Researchers at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory have been monitoring cosmic rays since 1964. When cosmic rays hit Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that rain down on Earth's surface. Among these particles are neutrons. Detectors in Oulu count neutrons as a proxy for cosmic rays.

As the top panel shows, cosmic rays naturally wax and wane with the 11-year solar cycle. During Solar Maximum cosmic rays are weak; during Solar Minimum they are strong. The Space Age record for cosmic rays was set in late 2009-early 2010 near the end of a very deep Solar Minimum.

Records, they say, are meant to be broken. As 2019 comes to a close, neutron counts at Oulu are approaching the very high levels seen in 2009-2010. A new record could be just weeks or months away. This is important because excess cosmic rays pose a health hazard to astronauts and polar air travelers, affect the electro-chemistry of Earth's upper atmosphere, and may help trigger lightning.

Because cosmic rays are such an important form of space weather, we've added a new data feed to our web site. It's right here. Every day you can see how Oulu neutron counts are changing. The values are expressed as percentages of the "Space Age average"--that is, the average of all neutron counts since 1964.

This data feed is made possible by the extraordinary dedication and decades-long monitoring program of the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland. Thank you!

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE ANTARES PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Consider the Antares Pendant. On Aug. 19, 2019, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon to the edge of space, 104,002 ft high. This ruby-red crystal necklace went along for the ride:

You can have it for $179.95. The students are selling these white gold-plated pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. The glittering Swarovski crystal has a deep ruby hue inspired by the red-supergiant star Antares in Scorpio. Each one comes with greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Oct. 3, 2019, the network reported 22 fireballs.
(21 sporadics, 1 southern Taurid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On October 3, 2019 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2019 SX8
2019-Sep-28
1 LD
8.4
6
2019 SF9
2019-Sep-28
2 LD
14.3
47
2019 TE
2019-Sep-28
0.9 LD
19.6
9
2019 TA
2019-Sep-29
1.2 LD
6.2
5
2019 SE5
2019-Sep-29
5.7 LD
6.6
15
2019 SO1
2019-Sep-29
11.3 LD
7.5
16
2019 SA5
2019-Sep-29
19.2 LD
7.8
25
2019 TD
2019-Sep-29
0.3 LD
10.1
5
2019 TF
2019-Sep-29
18 LD
10
11
2019 SN4
2019-Sep-29
6.5 LD
19.6
48
2019 TC
2019-Sep-29
14.5 LD
12.3
17
2019 SH3
2019-Sep-30
3.1 LD
14.2
27
2019 SN3
2019-Sep-30
2.2 LD
7.7
16
2019 SP
2019-Sep-30
6.6 LD
15.1
46
2019 TR
2019-Oct-01
15.7 LD
8.1
29
2019 SJ9
2019-Oct-01
7.8 LD
8.4
14
2019 SM8
2019-Oct-01
0.4 LD
14.2
5
2019 SE8
2019-Oct-01
2.8 LD
22.8
15
2019 SE9
2019-Oct-01
14.1 LD
4.1
37
2018 FK5
2019-Oct-01
13.3 LD
10.5
8
2019 SD8
2019-Oct-02
1.4 LD
10.9
12
2019 SX3
2019-Oct-02
8.7 LD
8.7
30
2019 SA6
2019-Oct-02
11.8 LD
16.6
30
2018 LG4
2019-Oct-02
13.8 LD
8.1
12
2019 SL8
2019-Oct-03
7.9 LD
13.3
24
2019 SP3
2019-Oct-03
1 LD
8.7
20
2019 SH9
2019-Oct-03
4.6 LD
14.9
10
2019 TK
2019-Oct-03
1.2 LD
13.9
9
2017 TJ4
2019-Oct-05
13.5 LD
8.9
32
2019 SZ4
2019-Oct-06
18.7 LD
6.5
25
2019 TH
2019-Oct-06
14.7 LD
11.5
26
2019 RK
2019-Oct-08
16.7 LD
3
30
2019 SB6
2019-Oct-08
7.8 LD
7.8
16
2019 TM
2019-Oct-08
9.4 LD
12.9
37
2019 SL7
2019-Oct-09
1.4 LD
17.1
22
2019 SX5
2019-Oct-10
17.7 LD
21.8
85
2019 SK8
2019-Oct-12
10.5 LD
8.5
21
2019 SV9
2019-Oct-12
8.6 LD
13.6
30
2019 SE2
2019-Oct-12
19.2 LD
10.2
54
2019 SR8
2019-Oct-16
13.5 LD
9.8
26
2019 SJ8
2019-Oct-19
11.6 LD
7.4
47
162082
2019-Oct-25
16.2 LD
11.2
589
2017 TG5
2019-Oct-25
14.4 LD
11.9
34
2015 JD1
2019-Nov-03
12.9 LD
11.9
269
2010 JG
2019-Nov-12
19.6 LD
14.9
235
481394
2019-Nov-21
11.3 LD
7.9
372
2008 EA9
2019-Nov-23
10.5 LD
2.2
10
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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