These sunspots have stable 'alpha-' and 'beta-class' magnetic fields that are unlikely to erupt. The chance of strong flares today is less thann 1%. Credit: SDO/HMI
Spotless Days Current Stretch: 0 days 2021 total: 60 days (19%) 2020 total: 208 days (57%) 2019 total: 281 days (77%) 2018 total: 221 days (61%) 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 2011 total: 2 days (<1%) 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 2008 total: 268 days (73%) 2007 total: 152 days (42%) 2006 total: 70 days (19%) Updated 14 Nov 2021
Thermosphere Climate Index today: 7.98x1010W Cool Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957) Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009) explanation | more data:gfx, txt Updated 14 Nov 2021
Cosmic RaysSolar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays. Oulu Neutron Counts Percentages of the Space Age average: today: +8.8% High 48-hr change: +0.0 % Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009) Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991) explanation |more data Updated 14 Nov 2021 @ 1700 UT
Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 0 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 3.5 nT Bz: -0.8 nT south more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 14 Nov 21
Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Nov. 17. Credit: SDO/AIA
Noctilucent CloudsThe northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th.
Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2021 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
30 %
MINOR
01 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
20 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
30 %
SEVERE
10 %
35 %
Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021
What's up in space
Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure!
ALL QUIET: Solar activity is low, and likely to remain so for the next 24 hours. There are two sunspots on the sun today. They both have stable magnetic fields that pose almost no threat for strong solar flares. Solar flare alerts:SMS Text.
MOLTEN MOON: On the coast of Taiwan, photographer Meiying Lee was watching the crescent Moon set on Nov 10th when a second Moon rose out of the waves to meet it. "It was a lovely inferior mirage," says Lee, who rapidly started taking pictures:
"The weather was good and the air was clear on Nov. 10th," says Lee. "This allowed me to see the Moon at very low elevation [as it sank into the waves of the Taiwan Straight]."
The mirage began when the Moon passed behind a layer of warm air hovering just above the sea surface. This kind of temperature anomaly is common; during the day, the sun heats the water, and at night the water returns some heat to the air just above it. Refraction in the warm air layer produces a lower (or 'inferior') image of the Moon, which rises as the actual Moon sets.
Lee took a closer look and found individual craters rising out of the waves:
"In this photo, Mare Crisium (Sea of Crises) and Mare Fecunditatis (Sea of Fertility) appear in the upright image and the inverted image," says Lee. "The lunar seas are connected together by the mirage."
Inferior mirages of the sun are photographed all the time. Inferior mirages of the Moon are harder to catch because there is less light to work with. "I was very lucky to catch this one," says Lee.
HUMMINGBIRD-SUNFLOWER PENDANT: This pendant has a secret compartment--and it has touched the edge of space. On Nov. 4, 2021, our Sterling Silver Hummingbird-Sunflower Pendant flew to the stratosphere on board an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloon:
You can have it for $133.95. Inscribed on the back with "Always on my mind, Forever in my heart," each pendant comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. These make great Christmas gifts.
Bonus: The pendant contains a tiny chamber, which you may fill with the ashes of a loved one or anything else you wish to keep close to your heart.
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 14, 2021, the network reported 15 fireballs. (9 sporadics, 4 Leonids, 1 northern Taurid, 1 November omega Orionid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 14, 2021 there were 2234 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation:
Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time.
Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.
Technical notes:
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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