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LEONID METEOR SHOWER: Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet Tempel-Tuttle, source of the annual Leonid meteor shower. In some years, dense ribbons of comet dust produce Leonid meteor storms. 2021 is not a storm year. Forecasters expect no more than 10 to 15 meteors per hour when the shower peaks on Nov. 17th.
SPACE WEATHER AND THE RUSSIAN ASAT STRIKE: Russia just destroyed one of its own satellites. On Nov. 15, 2021, a missile launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome struck Kosmos 1408, shattering the old satellite into thousands of pieces. Debris came so close to the ISS that astronauts took shelter in their crew capsules, just in case they had to abandon ship.
Littering Earth orbit with debris is never a good idea. Space weather could make it much worse. To understand why, turn back the clock 18 years to the Halloween Storms of October 2003, when our planet "lost" half its satellites.
Above: Northern Lights over Houston, Texas, on Oct. 29, 2003. Credit: Christie Ponder [photo gallery]
Solar Cycle 23 was winding down. Space weather forecasters were talking about how quiet things would soon become when, suddenly, the sun unleashed two of the strongest solar flares of the Space Age: An X17 flare on Oct. 28th followed by an X10 flare on Oct. 29th. Powerful CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field only 19 hours later, sparking 3 days of severe to extreme geomagnetic storms.
An "after action report" from NOAA lists some of the storm's side effects: Commercial airlines scrambled to redirect flights from the poles, where radiation levels were suddenly high. Each detour cost as much as $100,000. Many Earth-orbiting satellites experienced reboots and even unwanted thruster firings. Some operators simply gave up and turned their instruments off. Goddard's Space Science Mission Operations Team estimates that 59% of NASA's Earth and space science satellites were affected.
There's a dawning awareness that something else important happened, too. Many of Earth's satellites were misplaced.
In a 2020 paper entitled "Flying Through Uncertainty," a team of researchers led by Thomas Berger at the University of Colorado's Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center report a little-known anecdote from USAF satellite operators. During the Halloween storms, they recalled, "the majority of [low Earth orbiting] satellites were temporarily lost, requiring several days of around-the-clock work to reestablish [their positions]."
"The Halloween storms pumped an extra 3 Terrawatts of power into Earth's upper atmosphere," explains Martin Mlynczak, principal investigator of NASA's SABER spacecraft, which measured the energy dump. "We didn't feel it down on the planet's surface, but it was a big event for Earth orbiting satellites. The extra power puffed up the atmosphere, sharply increasing aerodynamic drag."
Above: A simulation of orbital position errors caused by a moderate geomagnetic storm for 2,653 objects in the USAF catalog. From "Flying Through Uncertainty." [full caption]
Simulations show that even moderate geomagnetic storms can shift the position of a satellite by 10 km or more. The Halloween Storms created far larger uncertainties. This is a problem because, when you're in a shooting gallery, you can't dodge the bullets unless you know where they are.
"Fortunately, the Halloween storm did not cause any major collisions that we know of," write Berger and his co-authors. "But if a geomagnetic storm on the level of the 2003 event were to occur today, the situation could be very different. Most satellite operators today have never experienced anything like the Halloween 2003 storm."
Right now radars and telescopes in the United States Space Surveillance Network are surely working to pinpoint the debris of Kosmos 1408. Orbital solutions will allow collision warnings to be issued; satellites can dodge. However, a strong geomagnetic storm could wipe out their findings in an instant.
Intensifying geomagnetic activity is almost certain as young Solar Cycle 25 gains steam in the years ahead. It's something to think about the next time you launch an ASAT weapon...
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION SPARKS AURORAS: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Nov. 15th: data. "Suddenly, the whole sky exploded with colorful auroras," reports Markus Varik from Tromsø, Norway:
"We were surprised by this display because the forecast called for low geomagnetic activity," he says.
Indeed, forecasters were surprised. CIRs are notoriously hard to predict, and this one was not expected to arrive for another 24 hours--if it existed at all.
CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving streams of solar wind. Inside a CIR, solar wind plasma is compressed, sometimes even forming magnetized shock-like structures. They strike with the effect of a mini-CME.
Earth is now inside a fast-moving stream of solar wind following behind the CIR. With wind speeds topping 600 km/s, the Arctic aurora show could continue through Nov. 16th. Stay tuned! Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
A TARDIS AT THE EDGE OF SPACE: By popular demand, we present Dr. Who's Tardis at the Edge of Space. The famous time traveling police box hitched a ride on a cosmic ray balloon during the strongest geomagnetic storm of new Solar Cycle 25. Here it is floating above 99% of Earth's atmosphere on Nov. 3, 2021:
You can have it for $134.95. It makes a great gift for Dr. Who fans and comes with a bonus figurine of the fifth Dr. Who (Peter Davison), who flew inside the police box. The Tardis comes with a greeting card showing the police box in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 15, 2021, the network reported 14 fireballs.
(7 sporadics, 4 Leonids, 3 northern Taurids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On November 16, 2021 there were 2238 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2021 VC12 | 2021-Nov-11 | 16.6 LD | 7.4 | 21 |
2021 UA5 | 2021-Nov-11 | 11.2 LD | 9.3 | 24 |
2021 VH2 | 2021-Nov-11 | 2.9 LD | 2.3 | 7 |
2021 VW6 | 2021-Nov-11 | 1.3 LD | 17 | 6 |
2021 VM12 | 2021-Nov-11 | 13.8 LD | 7.4 | 25 |
2021 VY7 | 2021-Nov-11 | 0.8 LD | 12.4 | 5 |
2021 UE10 | 2021-Nov-12 | 15 LD | 5 | 19 |
2007 VD138 | 2021-Nov-12 | 16 LD | 7.7 | 44 |
2021 VC7 | 2021-Nov-12 | 0.5 LD | 18.6 | 8 |
2021 VR5 | 2021-Nov-12 | 1 LD | 14.7 | 15 |
2021 VU8 | 2021-Nov-12 | 7.3 LD | 13.4 | 17 |
2021 UX8 | 2021-Nov-12 | 19 LD | 6.3 | 25 |
2021 VY4 | 2021-Nov-12 | 2.3 LD | 13.8 | 18 |
2004 UE | 2021-Nov-13 | 11.1 LD | 13.2 | 186 |
2021 VQ22 | 2021-Nov-13 | 8.5 LD | 8.7 | 23 |
2021 UO3 | 2021-Nov-13 | 4.6 LD | 6.6 | 16 |
2021 VQ2 | 2021-Nov-13 | 12.9 LD | 7.2 | 14 |
2021 VM22 | 2021-Nov-13 | 2.3 LD | 9.9 | 12 |
2021 UM9 | 2021-Nov-13 | 4.6 LD | 11.2 | 59 |
2021 VJ8 | 2021-Nov-13 | 5.6 LD | 8.5 | 15 |
2021 VA3 | 2021-Nov-14 | 13 LD | 8.2 | 17 |
2021 VG3 | 2021-Nov-15 | 10.2 LD | 11.4 | 19 |
2016 VR | 2021-Nov-15 | 8.2 LD | 8.7 | 19 |
2021 VM1 | 2021-Nov-15 | 9.2 LD | 14.6 | 23 |
2010 VK139 | 2021-Nov-15 | 6.1 LD | 13.9 | 65 |
2019 VL5 | 2021-Nov-15 | 8.5 LD | 8.1 | 24 |
2021 VL22 | 2021-Nov-16 | 9.1 LD | 9.8 | 19 |
2021 VQ6 | 2021-Nov-16 | 8.5 LD | 10.4 | 26 |
2021 VP8 | 2021-Nov-16 | 12.3 LD | 5.5 | 20 |
2021 VS5 | 2021-Nov-17 | 3.6 LD | 8.5 | 19 |
2021 VR6 | 2021-Nov-17 | 7.6 LD | 9 | 17 |
2021 VK10 | 2021-Nov-18 | 5.9 LD | 14.3 | 22 |
2021 VC9 | 2021-Nov-19 | 7 LD | 7.3 | 14 |
2021 VW22 | 2021-Nov-19 | 13.6 LD | 8.5 | 16 |
2021 VJ11 | 2021-Nov-19 | 6.8 LD | 10.6 | 25 |
2021 VR | 2021-Nov-19 | 15.5 LD | 13.3 | 73 |
2016 JG12 | 2021-Nov-20 | 14.4 LD | 7.5 | 111 |
2021 TR15 | 2021-Nov-20 | 11.9 LD | 7 | 42 |
2021 VP10 | 2021-Nov-20 | 2 LD | 8.3 | 9 |
2021 KH2 | 2021-Nov-21 | 19.3 LD | 6.5 | 31 |
2021 VW5 | 2021-Nov-21 | 15.6 LD | 3.4 | 17 |
3361 | 2021-Nov-21 | 15.1 LD | 8.1 | 504 |
2021 VL16 | 2021-Nov-23 | 14.3 LD | 8.4 | 19 |
2014 WF201 | 2021-Nov-24 | 13.2 LD | 5.5 | 27 |
2021 VR4 | 2021-Nov-25 | 2.1 LD | 7.7 | 17 |
2009 WB105 | 2021-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 |
2021 VF11 | 2021-Nov-25 | 18.6 LD | 1.3 | 14 |
2019 BB5 | 2021-Nov-25 | 18.8 LD | 8.3 | 16 |
2021 VM | 2021-Nov-27 | 9.4 LD | 8.9 | 30 |
2021 VO12 | 2021-Nov-28 | 7.3 LD | 13.5 | 52 |
1994 WR12 | 2021-Nov-29 | 16.1 LD | 8.8 | 123 |
2021 UP4 | 2021-Dec-04 | 13.9 LD | 8.3 | 53 |
2021 VX7 | 2021-Dec-06 | 14.8 LD | 6.1 | 42 |
4660 | 2021-Dec-11 | 10.3 LD | 6.6 | 759 |
2019 XQ1 | 2021-Dec-13 | 14.1 LD | 9.1 | 30 |
2021 VT6 | 2021-Dec-14 | 7.7 LD | 6.9 | 55 |
2004 YC | 2021-Dec-15 | 18.4 LD | 8.1 | 27 |
163899 | 2021-Dec-17 | 14.2 LD | 5.6 | 1093 |
2021 LX3 | 2021-Dec-18 | 19.7 LD | 6.5 | 124 |
2016 YY10 | 2021-Dec-21 | 11.3 LD | 9.2 | 23 |
2017 XQ60 | 2021-Dec-21 | 13.7 LD | 15.7 | 47 |
2016 TR54 | 2021-Dec-24 | 16.9 LD | 15.5 | 135 |
2018 AH | 2021-Dec-27 | 11.9 LD | 12.7 | 112 |
2017 AE3 | 2021-Dec-29 | 9.3 LD | 19.1 | 155 |
2014 YE15 | 2022-Jan-06 | 19.3 LD | 6.4 | 8 |
2020 AP1 | 2022-Jan-07 | 4.6 LD | 5.7 | 4 |
2013 YD48 | 2022-Jan-11 | 14.6 LD | 14.8 | 107 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation:
Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time.
Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.
Technical notes:
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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