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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (UPDATED): Photographers, warm up your cameras. A CME is heading for Earth, and it could spark a good display of auroras when it arrives later today or tomorrow. NASA's computer model of the CME suggests it will reach Earth on Feb. 17th at 1800 UT. (Update: This time has passed with no CME yet.) First contact is expected to produce a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm, intensifying to moderate G2-class storming on Feb. 18th. During such storms, auroras can spill into the United States as far south as New York and Idaho. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
STRONG X2-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot AR3229 erupted on Feb. 17th (2016 UT), producing a strong X2-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet pulse:
Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Mariners, aviators and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal and other unusual propagation efftects at frequencies below 30 MHz for more than an hour after the flare.
The long-duration flare also launched a solar tsunami. It is the shadowy shock wave in this 193 angstrom movie from SDO:
The US Air Force has reported a Type II solar radio burst coming from the tsunami. The drift rate of the burst suggests a shock speed greater than 2400 km/s (5.4 million mph). Solar tsunamis and Type II radio bursts are closely linked to CMEs, and we should expect to see one soon emerging from the blast site.
Stay tuned for updates about this significant event. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
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VENUS AND JUPITER ARE CONVERGING: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look west. Venus and Jupiter are shining brightly in the twilight sky, converging for a close encounter less than 2 weeks from now. Petr Horálek sends this picture from Soneva Jani, Maldives:
"Planets Jupiter (above) and Venus (below) are converging beautifully, a little closer every evening," says Horálek. "This image shows both of them in a romantic view of the Maldivian Soneva Jani Island."
At closest approach on March 1st, the two planets will be just 0.5 degrees apart--a beautiful pairing and one of the best astrophoto-ops of 2023. They're already an eye-catching pair. Take a look and submit your photos here.
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THE INFINITY PEARL: Nothing says "I love you forever" like the Infinity Pearl. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched this unique pendant to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon. For more than 2 hours it floated 101,378+ feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:
You can have it for $249.95. The students are selling space pearls to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Measuring 9 mm in diameter, the Infinity Pearl is mounted on a sterling silver infinity twist and suspended from a matching 17 inch long sterling silver chain. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Feb 17 2023, the network reported 10 fireballs.
(10 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On February 17, 2023 there were 2330 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2023 CR3 | 2023-Feb-12 | 14.5 LD | 6.5 | 24 |
| 2023 CK2 | 2023-Feb-12 | 15.7 LD | 20.6 | 103 |
| 2023 CL1 | 2023-Feb-12 | 2.2 LD | 10.9 | 12 |
| 2023 CJ1 | 2023-Feb-13 | 12.5 LD | 7.2 | 28 |
| 2023 CB3 | 2023-Feb-13 | 11.9 LD | 6.9 | 16 |
| 2021 EP4 | 2023-Feb-13 | 19 LD | 6.1 | 5 |
| 2023 CU1 | 2023-Feb-14 | 5.7 LD | 8.6 | 15 |
| 2023 DB | 2023-Feb-14 | 6.8 LD | 3.6 | 16 |
| 2023 CH2 | 2023-Feb-14 | 1.1 LD | 10.1 | 19 |
| 2023 CP | 2023-Feb-14 | 17.2 LD | 3.4 | 36 |
| 2023 CZ1 | 2023-Feb-14 | 17.7 LD | 8.6 | 15 |
| 2023 CP2 | 2023-Feb-14 | 2.9 LD | 5.1 | 9 |
| 2023 CN2 | 2023-Feb-15 | 4.6 LD | 9.7 | 10 |
| 2023 CT1 | 2023-Feb-15 | 2.2 LD | 16.9 | 17 |
| 199145 | 2023-Feb-16 | 12 LD | 24.6 | 770 |
| 2023 CF2 | 2023-Feb-16 | 3.9 LD | 7.9 | 8 |
| 2023 CV1 | 2023-Feb-16 | 10.6 LD | 7.3 | 37 |
| 2023 CJ2 | 2023-Feb-16 | 6.8 LD | 8.2 | 29 |
| 2022 RG | 2023-Feb-16 | 8.2 LD | 3 | 25 |
| 2023 CG2 | 2023-Feb-16 | 1.3 LD | 21.3 | 14 |
| 2023 CA3 | 2023-Feb-17 | 5.9 LD | 12.4 | 14 |
| 2023 CS3 | 2023-Feb-17 | 9.4 LD | 4.7 | 15 |
| 2023 CY1 | 2023-Feb-17 | 4.6 LD | 6.7 | 20 |
| 2023 CW2 | 2023-Feb-17 | 1.6 LD | 2.3 | 4 |
| 2020 DG4 | 2023-Feb-17 | 1.4 LD | 6.9 | 8 |
| 2023 CC1 | 2023-Feb-18 | 15 LD | 12.2 | 41 |
| 2023 CS2 | 2023-Feb-18 | 4.3 LD | 7.6 | 9 |
| 2023 CE2 | 2023-Feb-18 | 13.6 LD | 16.1 | 28 |
| 2023 CH1 | 2023-Feb-18 | 7.6 LD | 7.5 | 16 |
| 2023 CW | 2023-Feb-18 | 6.7 LD | 7.6 | 26 |
| 2020 CX1 | 2023-Feb-19 | 17.4 LD | 7.7 | 53 |
| 2023 CR2 | 2023-Feb-20 | 19.3 LD | 17.4 | 21 |
| 37638 | 2023-Feb-21 | 17 LD | 11.1 | 493 |
| 2023 AA2 | 2023-Feb-22 | 17.4 LD | 10.1 | 133 |
| 2023 CM2 | 2023-Feb-22 | 2.1 LD | 11.2 | 21 |
| 2023 CS1 | 2023-Feb-23 | 15.1 LD | 9.1 | 30 |
| 2023 CG1 | 2023-Feb-25 | 15.2 LD | 6.5 | 32 |
| 2023 DA | 2023-Feb-26 | 2.8 LD | 5.9 | 18 |
| 2023 CX2 | 2023-Feb-27 | 7.6 LD | 2.3 | 11 |
| 2023 CC2 | 2023-Feb-27 | 16.2 LD | 5.1 | 32 |
| 2012 DK31 | 2023-Feb-27 | 12.6 LD | 15.5 | 143 |
| 2006 BE55 | 2023-Feb-28 | 9.4 LD | 13.3 | 145 |
| 2021 QW | 2023-Mar-03 | 13.9 LD | 12.1 | 79 |
| 2017 BM123 | 2023-Mar-03 | 12.1 LD | 7.8 | 61 |
| 2007 ED125 | 2023-Mar-03 | 11.7 LD | 13.1 | 224 |
| 2015 EG | 2023-Mar-04 | 13.9 LD | 10.6 | 27 |
| 2023 BK5 | 2023-Mar-05 | 17.8 LD | 8.4 | 62 |
| 535844 | 2023-Mar-07 | 10.5 LD | 7.7 | 149 |
| 2020 FQ | 2023-Mar-09 | 14 LD | 6.3 | 13 |
| 2020 FV4 | 2023-Mar-13 | 17.6 LD | 8.2 | 30 |
| 2023 CM | 2023-Mar-14 | 10.3 LD | 14 | 190 |
| 2018 UQ1 | 2023-Mar-17 | 10.7 LD | 11.7 | 143 |
| 2016 WH | 2023-Mar-19 | 18.1 LD | 11.8 | 14 |
| 2018 FE3 | 2023-Mar-21 | 10.1 LD | 5.4 | 13 |
| 2022 YK4 | 2023-Mar-29 | 11.9 LD | 2.3 | 25 |
| 2017 SE12 | 2023-Mar-30 | 5.2 LD | 8.4 | 15 |
| 2016 GH1 | 2023-Mar-30 | 7.7 LD | 5.8 | 11 |
| 2022 GO3 | 2023-Apr-02 | 17 LD | 11.6 | 15 |
| 2021 GN1 | 2023-Apr-02 | 17.7 LD | 14.2 | 18 |
| 2018 FD | 2023-Apr-07 | 17.9 LD | 8.2 | 47 |
| 2019 GK21 | 2023-Apr-13 | 15.2 LD | 8.1 | 27 |
| 2022 YK9 | 2023-Apr-13 | 19.9 LD | 9.9 | 175 |
| 436774 | 2023-Apr-13 | 12.5 LD | 17.6 | 719 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | the underlying science of space weather |
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