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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A CME was expected to pass near Earth on March 17th. However, solar wind data contain no evidence of a close encounter. It missed. Another CME is coming, and it could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 19th. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible if/when the CME arrives. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
A SAHARA DUST STORM IN EUROPE: A few hundred million kilograms of desert dust just swirled across Europe. Jordi L. Coy photographed the scene from southern Spain on March 15th:
"It looks like the apocalypse," says Coy. "The atmospheric phenomenon will go down in history as the largest incursion into the Iberian Peninsula since record-keeping began. In the image, you can see the city of Elda under a dense blanket of sand, and on the crest of the mountain a person observing."
The gritty dust comes from the Sahara desert in Africa. This animation from Europe's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service shows a massive plume covering Spain on March 15th before dispersing into northern Europe:
Plumes of Sahara dust drift over Europe multiple times each year. Researchers are calling this event "exceptional." Very high concentrations of coarse particulate matter (PM10) were recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. Dust has coated European ski slopes and glaciers, hastening seasonal melts. By the end of the week, hazy skies are expected as far north as Britain and Denmark.
more images: from Michael Karrer of Austria; from Erwin Jaklitsch of Oberwagenburg - Kloten, Switzerland; from Dorothea Grolig of Vienna Woods, Austria;
CME WIPES OUT COSMIC RAYS: The March 13th CME did more than spark bright auroras. It also wiped out a lot of cosmic rays. Neutron monitors at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, recorded a sharp drop in cosmic radiation just after the CME arrived:
This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a coronal mass ejection (CME) sweeps past Earth and pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.
There's something odd about this Forbush decrease. It's a double dip decrease. Cosmic rays dropped precipitously on March 13th--then they surged midday on March 14th--then they dropped precipitously again. The up-and-down may be a sign of structure inside the CME.
As Solar Cycle 25 intensifies, more and more CMEs will sweep past Earth. Forbush decreases will become increasingly common and may even begin to overlap. This will cause a persistent decline in cosmic rays around our planet.
A recent paper in the Astrophysical Journal looked at the last two solar cycles and compared the daily rate of CMEs to the strength of cosmic rays. The plot, above, shows the results. At the peak of Solar Cycle 24, the sun was spitting out more than 5 CMEs per day; at the same time, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) dropped more than 60%.
Evidence is mounting that new Solar Cycle 25 will be stronger than Solar Cycle 24. If so, CMEs will be more abundant and cosmic rays even more depressed--a welcome reduction for astronauts, air travelers, and even some mountain climbers.
Meanwhile, the March 13th Forbush decrease is still underway. Cosmic rays remain depressed 4 full days after the CME arrived.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
STERLING SILVER DOLPHIN PENDANT: On Feb. 28, 2022, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray research balloon. This sterling silver dolphin hitched a ride, flying 111,101 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of Central California:
You can have it for $142.95. Leaping through blue crystal waves, the playful cetacean is 100% 925 sterling silver. It comes with a matching 18-inch sterling silver chain The entire pendant is lead-free, nickel-free, cadmium-free, and totally hypoallergenic.
Each pendant comes with a greeting card showing the dolphin in flight, and telling the story of its trip to the edge of space and back again. All sales support the student's cosmic ray research program.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Mar 18, 2022, the network reported 3 fireballs.
(3 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On March 18, 2022 there were 2271 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2022 DX2 | 2022-Mar-13 | 15.7 LD | 12.7 | 35 |
2022 DR3 | 2022-Mar-13 | 15.7 LD | 12.4 | 32 |
2018 GY | 2022-Mar-13 | 11.9 LD | 10.7 | 43 |
2022 BX1 | 2022-Mar-13 | 20.1 LD | 11 | 161 |
2022 ES3 | 2022-Mar-13 | 0.9 LD | 18.3 | 13 |
2022 EO4 | 2022-Mar-13 | 2.8 LD | 15.6 | 30 |
2022 EA1 | 2022-Mar-14 | 8.1 LD | 5.5 | 13 |
2022 EC6 | 2022-Mar-14 | 8.4 LD | 7.2 | 14 |
2022 EK4 | 2022-Mar-14 | 4.8 LD | 8.3 | 19 |
2022 FA | 2022-Mar-15 | 0.5 LD | 10.2 | 14 |
2022 ED4 | 2022-Mar-15 | 2.1 LD | 17 | 17 |
2022 DP3 | 2022-Mar-15 | 3 LD | 10.8 | 41 |
2022 EG3 | 2022-Mar-15 | 13.7 LD | 6.5 | 8 |
2022 FB | 2022-Mar-16 | 2.3 LD | 8.2 | 17 |
2022 EF4 | 2022-Mar-16 | 6.9 LD | 12.1 | 26 |
2019 PH1 | 2022-Mar-17 | 12.3 LD | 15.9 | 37 |
2022 EU6 | 2022-Mar-17 | 7.7 LD | 23.2 | 34 |
2022 EM6 | 2022-Mar-17 | 7.5 LD | 23.2 | 36 |
2022 EL6 | 2022-Mar-17 | 5.4 LD | 18.9 | 34 |
2022 EU3 | 2022-Mar-17 | 14.2 LD | 5 | 14 |
2022 DB2 | 2022-Mar-18 | 10.9 LD | 8.6 | 52 |
2016 FZ12 | 2022-Mar-19 | 2.2 LD | 8.3 | 16 |
2022 DX | 2022-Mar-19 | 8.5 LD | 1.5 | 8 |
2022 ER5 | 2022-Mar-20 | 2.1 LD | 12.3 | 27 |
2022 EQ6 | 2022-Mar-20 | 7.6 LD | 9 | 21 |
2022 EE4 | 2022-Mar-21 | 18 LD | 16.9 | 33 |
2022 DG3 | 2022-Mar-21 | 18.3 LD | 7.2 | 37 |
2020 SQ | 2022-Mar-21 | 2.8 LD | 6 | 12 |
2022 EA5 | 2022-Mar-23 | 14.9 LD | 8 | 19 |
2013 BO76 | 2022-Mar-24 | 13.3 LD | 13.8 | 271 |
2011 GE3 | 2022-Mar-26 | 7.6 LD | 7 | 22 |
2012 FX35 | 2022-Mar-26 | 13.7 LD | 5.9 | 25 |
2022 EL5 | 2022-Mar-29 | 7.1 LD | 3 | 12 |
2010 GD35 | 2022-Mar-29 | 17.7 LD | 12.5 | 43 |
2020 FW5 | 2022-Mar-30 | 8.9 LD | 13.1 | 27 |
2022 EK1 | 2022-Mar-30 | 19 LD | 7.6 | 44 |
2022 DX4 | 2022-Mar-31 | 16.7 LD | 6 | 38 |
2007 FF1 | 2022-Apr-01 | 19.4 LD | 12.8 | 155 |
2021 GN1 | 2022-Apr-02 | 14.4 LD | 14.3 | 19 |
2016 GW221 | 2022-Apr-02 | 9.8 LD | 5.9 | 41 |
2022 EN2 | 2022-Apr-04 | 18.7 LD | 5.6 | 41 |
2012 TV | 2022-Apr-05 | 19.2 LD | 18.1 | 32 |
2020 GH1 | 2022-Apr-09 | 16.8 LD | 7.2 | 28 |
2017 TO2 | 2022-Apr-10 | 17.9 LD | 11.6 | 78 |
363599 | 2022-Apr-12 | 19.3 LD | 24.5 | 221 |
2020 TQ6 | 2022-Apr-18 | 13.4 LD | 15.4 | 43 |
2017 UR2 | 2022-Apr-22 | 19.4 LD | 9.3 | 10 |
2020 VN1 | 2022-Apr-25 | 19.3 LD | 2.3 | 9 |
418135 | 2022-Apr-28 | 8.5 LD | 10.4 | 443 |
2017 XO2 | 2022-May-01 | 18.8 LD | 12.4 | 118 |
2017 HG1 | 2022-May-04 | 18.2 LD | 6 | 11 |
467460 | 2022-May-09 | 14.9 LD | 11.3 | 513 |
2019 JE | 2022-May-11 | 4.9 LD | 7.2 | 20 |
2012 UX68 | 2022-May-15 | 2.8 LD | 8.2 | 54 |
388945 | 2022-May-15 | 15 LD | 8.2 | 287 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2021): Our balloons have just measured a sudden drop in atmospheric radiation. It happened during the strong geomagnetic storms of Nov. 3-4, 2021. Here are the data:
This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a CME from the sun sweeps past Earth and literally pushes cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.
We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush Decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our dataset.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes, so we can sample radiation where planes fly. This plot shows how the Forbush decrease was restricted to the stratosphere; it did not affect lower levels of the atmosphere:
The dose rates shown above are expressed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) link cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
.Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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