| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 2 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 3.8 nT Bz: -0.3 nT south more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 2345 UT Coronal Holes: 22 May 20 Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should graze Earth on May 22-23. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds NLC season has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected a blue cloud over the north pole on May 17th--one of the earliest starts in the spacecraft's 14 year history. Check here for daily images from AIM. Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar Updated at: SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2020 May 22 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 01 % | 01 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2020 May 22 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 05 % | 05 % | MINOR | 01 % | 01 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 15 % | 15 % | SEVERE | 05 % | 05 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too! | | | NO SUNSPOTS, ALMOST ALL THE TIME: So far this year, the sun has been blank (without sunspots) 78% of the time. If this rate of spotlessness continues, 2020 will break the Space Age record for low sunspot counts. The previous record was set in 2019 with 77%. Two years in a row with so few sunspots adds up to a very deep Solar Minimum. Worried? Don't. The next solar cycle is coming. MERCURY-VENUS CONJUNCTION: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look west. Venus and Mercury are in conjunction. David Blanchard sends this picture from Flagstaff, AZ: "Mercury and Venus, separated by just 1°, cast parallel reflections of light on Upper Lake Mary," says Blanchard. "What a view!" Actually, the view is about to improve. On May 23rd and 24th, an exquisitely thin crescent Moon will join the show, forming a celestial triangle on one night and an almost-straight line the next. It's a nice way to end the day. Sky maps: May 22, 23, 24. Realtime Conjunction Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter MORNING COMET SWAN: Comet SWAN (C/2020 F8) is not easy to see. Days away from its close approach to the sun, SWAN makes only the briefest appearance in the pre-dawn sky, just above the northeastern horizon where it is nearly swallowed by the glow of sunrise. The low-hanging comet is easily blocked by trees, buildings ... and clouds: Michael Jaeger of Stixendorf, Austria, captured this short movie of Comet SWAN on May 21st. Jaeger is one of the world's finest photographers of comets, and perhaps only he could turn a cloudy morning into such an artful shot. In fact, Comet SWAN is turning into a bit of a disappointment. Following a naked-eye outburst in late April, the comet was widely expected to put on a good show this month. Instead, it is fizzling. Current estimates of SWAN's magnitude range from +7 to +6--that is, just below the threshold for naked-eye visibility. On May 27th, Comet SWAN will swing past the sun near the orbit of Mercury. There, intense solar heat might either re-energize the comet or, more likely, doom it. Astronomers are encouraged to monitor developments. For the rest of the month, the comet may be found in the constellation Perseus; point your optics here. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter THE SPACE HAMMER: Are you looking for a far-out Father's Day gift? Consider the Space Hammer. On May 2nd, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew a payload of hammers to the edge of space, 35.0 km (115,000 feet) above Earth's surface onboard a high altitude helium balloon. You can have one for $97.95: These compact 8 oz. hammers are light enough to fly on a balloon yet dense enough to deliver a powerful blow. The magnetic head holds a nail for one-handed starting, and the stubby 6 in. length is perfect for tight work areas. Each space hammer comes with a unique gift card showing the tool floating at the top of Earth's atmosphere. The interior of the card tells the story of the flight and confirms that this gift has been to the edge of space and back again. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On May 22, 2020, the network reported 28 fireballs. (28 sporadics) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On May 22, 2020 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2020 JY | 2020-May-17 | 6.3 LD | 11.8 | 43 | 2020 JL1 | 2020-May-17 | 4.1 LD | 10.4 | 8 | 2020 KW | 2020-May-18 | 1.3 LD | 7.2 | 7 | 2020 JE2 | 2020-May-18 | 2.2 LD | 13.8 | 10 | 2020 HG9 | 2020-May-18 | 15.6 LD | 10.6 | 75 | 2020 KA | 2020-May-19 | 2 LD | 5.8 | 12 | 2020 JD2 | 2020-May-19 | 10 LD | 9.5 | 28 | 2020 KR | 2020-May-20 | 1 LD | 13.8 | 9 | 2020 KV2 | 2020-May-20 | 19.5 LD | 7.9 | 24 | 2020 KP | 2020-May-21 | 2.7 LD | 13.4 | 9 | 136795 | 2020-May-21 | 16.1 LD | 11.7 | 892 | 2020 JE1 | 2020-May-22 | 14.4 LD | 7.5 | 38 | 2020 KF2 | 2020-May-22 | 16.9 LD | 6 | 21 | 2020 KW1 | 2020-May-22 | 1.5 LD | 8.1 | 6 | 2020 KD1 | 2020-May-22 | 1 LD | 8.9 | 10 | 2020 JH2 | 2020-May-22 | 10.8 LD | 15 | 43 | 2020 JY1 | 2020-May-22 | 3.1 LD | 8.7 | 30 | 2020 KU | 2020-May-23 | 1 LD | 7.1 | 7 | 2020 JR1 | 2020-May-23 | 3.8 LD | 6.2 | 10 | 2020 KJ | 2020-May-23 | 9 LD | 15.7 | 44 | 2020 JX | 2020-May-23 | 19.5 LD | 8 | 62 | 2020 KX | 2020-May-24 | 12.3 LD | 7.5 | 20 | 2020 JZ1 | 2020-May-24 | 11.6 LD | 5.6 | 25 | 2020 KU2 | 2020-May-25 | 9.5 LD | 13.8 | 25 | 2020 JP2 | 2020-May-27 | 11.6 LD | 8.6 | 18 | 2020 JN3 | 2020-May-27 | 4.3 LD | 5.7 | 11 | 2020 KV | 2020-May-28 | 7.2 LD | 12.6 | 34 | 2020 JM1 | 2020-May-28 | 9.5 LD | 5.8 | 21 | 2020 JV2 | 2020-May-29 | 9.2 LD | 11.5 | 24 | 2020 KB | 2020-May-29 | 7.5 LD | 12.2 | 39 | 2020 KU1 | 2020-May-29 | 15.4 LD | 12.4 | 42 | 2020 KV1 | 2020-May-29 | 10.1 LD | 4.8 | 21 | 2020 KN2 | 2020-Jun-02 | 5.8 LD | 8.4 | 19 | 2020 KF | 2020-Jun-02 | 12.1 LD | 10.8 | 25 | 2020 KJ1 | 2020-Jun-02 | 5.5 LD | 5.1 | 19 | 163348 | 2020-Jun-06 | 13.3 LD | 11.1 | 339 | 2020 KO1 | 2020-Jun-06 | 15.5 LD | 7.3 | 36 | 2020 KQ1 | 2020-Jun-06 | 13.4 LD | 14.9 | 55 | 2013 XA22 | 2020-Jun-08 | 7.6 LD | 6.7 | 98 | 2020 KY | 2020-Jun-10 | 17.3 LD | 2.4 | 19 | 2020 JQ2 | 2020-Jun-11 | 15.2 LD | 4.5 | 24 | 2020 JS1 | 2020-Jun-11 | 9.9 LD | 5 | 19 | 2020 JU1 | 2020-Jun-13 | 19 LD | 6.6 | 47 | 2017 MF7 | 2020-Jun-14 | 3.7 LD | 10.9 | 23 | 2018 PD22 | 2020-Jun-19 | 17.2 LD | 14.6 | 56 | 2020 KR1 | 2020-Jun-22 | 11.6 LD | 6.8 | 43 | 441987 | 2020-Jun-24 | 9.8 LD | 12.9 | 186 | 2017 FW128 | 2020-Jun-25 | 6.9 LD | 5.4 | 11 | 2020 JX1 | 2020-Jun-29 | 3.3 LD | 5 | 60 | 2019 AC3 | 2020-Jul-01 | 10.5 LD | 3.4 | 12 | 2007 UN12 | 2020-Jul-04 | 16.7 LD | 2.9 | 6 | 2009 OS5 | 2020-Jul-13 | 17.6 LD | 2.6 | 45 | 2016 DY30 | 2020-Jul-19 | 9 LD | 15.1 | 3 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%. E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight. The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level. To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight. SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015: The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes: In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather | | To find reviews of new online casino sites in the UK try The Casino DB where there are hundreds of online casino reviews complete with bonuses and ratings. Get a bonus when playing at a new casino in the UK. The Genie got you covered! Looking for a new online casino? Try Casimpo the new site dedicated to making online casino simple and easy for all. | | These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! | | | | | | | | | | | | ©2019 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. | |