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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 437.5 km/sec
density: 3.6 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2347 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A9
1918 UT Nov25
24-hr: A9
0313 UT Nov25
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2300 UT
Daily Sun: 25 Nov 19
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 25 Nov 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 12 days
2019 total: 248 days (75%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 25 Nov 2019


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.90
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 24
Nov 2019

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 25 Nov 2019

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2019 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.5% High
7-day change: -0.0%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 25 Nov 2019 @ 0600 UT

Since 2015, Earth to Sky cosmic ray balloons launched weekly from California have also detected significant increases in atmospheric radiation. Dose rates reported below are in the stratosphere at approx. 100,000 ft.

California Cosmic Ray Balloons
Monitoring started in March 2015
now: 4.46 uGy/hr High
change since 2015: +18%
Max: 4.79 uGy/hr High
(10/2019)
Min: 3.80 uGy/hr Low (05/2015)
explanation | more data
Updated 16 Nov 2019

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 1.1 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
Coronal Holes: 25 Nov 19

Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on Nov. 27-28.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds began on Nov. 15th--the earliest start in recorded history. Check here for daily images from NASA's AIM spacecraft.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 11-24-2019 17:55:03 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2019 Nov 25 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2019 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
25 %
15 %
MINOR
05 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
20 %
MINOR
25 %
25 %
SEVERE
30 %
20 %
 
Monday, Nov. 25, 2019
What's up in space
       
 

Solar minimum is here - but even now strangely beautiful auroras are dancing around the poles. Deep inside the Arctic Circle, the expert guides of Aurora Holidays in Utsjoki, Finland, can help you chase them. Book now!

 

A NEW HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A southern hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere and it is spewing solar wind toward Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 27-28. Arctic auroras are likely when the gaseous material arrives. However, we don't yet know if this newly-opened hole is capable of causing a full-fledged geomagnetic storm. Stay tuned for updates. Aurora alerts: SMS text.

VENUS-JUPITER CONJUNCTION: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look southwest. Venus and Jupiter are in conjunction, beaming through the sunset beautifully close together. Juan Carlos Casado photographed the pair last night from Llers in Catalonia, Spain:

"The person's silhouette is my daughter Izar (12 years old), which means 'star' in the Basque language," explains Casado. "Izar is also the name of the star ε Bootis, and is considered one of the most beautiful double stars in the sky."

The two planets were at their closest on Nov. 24th--about 1.4 degrees apart. They are separating now, but slowly, so that they will remain an eye-catching pair for some nights to come. On Nov. 27th and 28th, the whisper-thin crescent Moon will join them, forming a heavenly triangle in the sunset sky. Sky maps: Nov. 24, 25, 26, 27, 28.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE SUNFLOWER SPACE PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Consider the sunflower space pendant. On Oct. 18, 2019, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon to the stratosphere. This cheerful pendant went along for the ride, 109,923 feet high:

You can have it for $109.92 (its altitude divided by 1000). The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each rose gold-plated pendant comes with a greeting card showing the flower in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again. They make great birthday, anniversary and Christmas gifts.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

STARLINK SATELLITES PHOTOBOMB A METEOR SHOWER: Yes, there was an outburst of alpha Monocerotid meteors on Nov. 22nd. As predicted by forecasters Esko Lyytinen and Peter Jenniskens (NASA/Ames), Earth grazed a filament of comet dust, prompting a modest flurry of meteors to emerge from the constellation Monoceros (the Unicorn). In La Palma on the Canary islands, a Global Meteor Network camera captured the display--and something more. Starlink photobombed the meteor shower:


Video credit: Denis Vida, University of Western Ontario

Dozens of Starlink satellites flew through the camera's field of view, putting on a display that rivaled the meteor shower itself. The score: alpha Monocerotids 90, Starlink 50. And the Starlink satellites were much brighter.

"It was a real eye-opener," remarked Bill Cooke, the lead of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office, when he saw the video. "This kind of thing could force us to change how we write software to auto-detect meteors."

Starlink is a venture by SpaceX. The idea is to launch 12,000 or more satellites into Earth orbit, surrounding our planet and providing global internet coverage even to people in remote areas. The first batch of 60 Starlink satellites launched in May 2019 surprised astronomers and prompted the International Astronomical Union to issue a statement of concern. Filling the sky with artificial stars might not be good for astronomy, they suggested.


Above: The alpha Monocerotid (AMO) outburst recorded at La Palma. Credit: Denis Vida, University of Western Ontario

The satellites that flew over La Palma during the alpha Monocerotid shower on Nov. 22nd came from a 2nd batch of 60 launched on Nov. 11, 2019. To be fair to Starlink, the train did not stop the camera from successfully recording the shower as shown in the histogram above. However, sharing the sky could become more challenging in the years ahead as Starlink expands from dozens to potentially thousands of satellites.

Meanwhile, congratulations to Lyytinen and Jenniskens for successfully predicting the alpha Monocerotids. They nailed the timing of the encounter. Earth passed by the filament of dust around 0500 UT, within 10 minutes of the forecast. The intensity of the outburst was less than they expected by a factor of 5 to 10. "That could mean we crossed the dust trail further away from the parent comet than we expected, suggesting that the comet is moving away from us," notes Jenniskens.

If you would like to see the Starlink satellites for yourself, flyby predictions are available at Heavens-Above.com.


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Nov. 24, 2019, the network reported 10 fireballs.
(10 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 25, 2019 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2019 UK6
2019-Nov-20
15.4 LD
7.7
71
2019 WN
2019-Nov-20
16.8 LD
10
32
2019 WF
2019-Nov-20
1.6 LD
11.6
14
2019 WE
2019-Nov-20
3.3 LD
8.5
16
481394
2019-Nov-21
11.3 LD
7.9
372
2019 VK
2019-Nov-21
5.8 LD
7.6
43
2019 WT1
2019-Nov-21
8.4 LD
8.4
15
2019 WM
2019-Nov-21
7.8 LD
12.4
18
2019 WU1
2019-Nov-23
8.7 LD
9.3
19
2008 EA9
2019-Nov-23
10.5 LD
2.2
10
2019 WU
2019-Nov-24
5.7 LD
11.4
13
2019 VF1
2019-Nov-25
13.3 LD
17.2
90
2019 WN1
2019-Dec-01
4.3 LD
10.1
18
2017 AP4
2019-Dec-03
8.5 LD
7.5
15
2019 WW
2019-Dec-05
8.6 LD
9.8
41
2018 XW2
2019-Dec-07
17.4 LD
13
28
2019 VH5
2019-Dec-08
18 LD
9.8
72
216258
2019-Dec-20
15.3 LD
11.8
324
2013 XY20
2019-Dec-21
18.4 LD
1.9
28
2017 XQ60
2019-Dec-22
11 LD
15.6
47
310442
2019-Dec-26
19 LD
12.3
372
2019 AE3
2020-Jan-02
4.9 LD
8.2
13
2019 UO
2020-Jan-10
11.8 LD
9.4
367
2011 EP51
2020-Jan-15
19.6 LD
7.1
32
2017 RZ15
2020-Jan-15
12.1 LD
7.4
14
2009 BH2
2020-Jan-18
14.6 LD
17.9
118
2013 DU
2020-Jan-20
15.3 LD
6.4
59
2019 TF2
2020-Jan-23
16.2 LD
1.6
18
2018 BM5
2020-Jan-23
13.1 LD
8.6
12
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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