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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 533.6 km/sec
density: 7.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A4
2205 UT Sep26
24-hr: C1
0038 UT Sep26
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 26 Sep 20
Sunspot AR2773 is small but growing, and it poses a threat for C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 11
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 26 Sep 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 190 days (71%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 26 Sep 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.79
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 26 Sep 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 73 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 26 Sep 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +8.9% High
48-hr change: -0.7%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 26 Sep 2020 @ 0600 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5
storm
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.9 nT
Bz: -1.7 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 26 Sep 20

Solar wind flowing from this large coronal hole should hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 28-29.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern-hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has ended. The southern season begins in November. Between now and then, Earth has no noctilucent clouds.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Sep 26 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
40 %
45 %
MINOR
25 %
25 %
SEVERE
05 %
05 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
05 %
MINOR
25 %
20 %
SEVERE
60 %
65 %
 
Saturday, Sep. 26, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too!

 

MOON-MARS CONJUNCTION: Mark your calendar. On Oct. 2nd, the nearly-full Moon will join Mars in the midnight sky for a bright conjunction. The get-together happens only 4 days before Mars' decade-class close approach to Earth, so it will be extra red and luminous. Don't miss it! [sky map]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: For the 4th day in a row, Earth's magnetic field is pulsing with the ebb and flow of solar wind, producing spectacular auroras around the Arctic Circle. Geir Svendsen of Lofoten, Norway, photographed this outburst during a G1-class geomagnetic storm on Sept. 26th:

"It was very colorful," he says. "Streamers of pink descended from overhead like a rainstorm of light."

Pink is significant. It means that particles from space are descending lower than usual in Earth's atmosphere. Most auroras are green--the color of oxygen atoms struck by electrons 100 km to 300 km above Earth's surface. Pink appears when electrons burrow deeper, striking nitrogen molecules at the 100 km level and below.

The light show is about to get even better. A large hole in the sun's atmosphere is facing Earth, spewing a stream of solar wind in our direction:

NOAA forecasters say G2-class geomagnetic storms are likely when the gaseous material arrives on Sept. 29th. If the storm unfolds as predicted, it would be the strongest since Aug. 30-31, 2019, when a similar G2-class event sparked auroras in northern-tier US states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

This is a good time of year for geomagnetic activity. During weeks around equinoxes, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field--a phenomenon called "the Russell-McPherron effect." Solar wind streams like the one approaching Earth now can flow through these cracks, fueling bright auroras. The stage is set! Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

C-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Solar activity is picking up. Sunspot AR2773 erupted during the early hours of Sept. 26th, producing a C1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

A pulse of radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere. This caused a minor radio blackout across the Pacifc Ocean: blackout map. Frequencies affected were mainly below 10 MHz.

This flare is one of the strongest of young Solar Cycle 25, and it breaks a 35-day string of deep quiet and almost complete spotlessness. It may have signaled the end of sunspot group AR2773, however, as the active region has begun to decay in the aftermath of the explosion. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE WOLFSONG SPACE PENDANT: Even during wildfire season, cosmic ray measurements must go on. On Sept. 10th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon through the smokey plume of the massive Creek Fire burning many miles away in California's Sierra National Forest. This pendant hitched a ride to the stratosphere, flying 118,800 feet above Earth's surface:

You can have it for $99.95. The students are selling wolfsong pendants to fund their cosmic ray monitoring program. Each piece of lupine jewelry comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Mars Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Sept. 24, 2020, the network reported 11 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 1 Southern Taurid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On September 26, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 SF5
2020-Sep-21
14.4 LD
7.4
24
2020 SA5
2020-Sep-21
5.5 LD
17.4
32
2020 RQ6
2020-Sep-21
3.4 LD
6.5
12
2020 SJ2
2020-Sep-21
3.8 LD
9.5
16
2020 SK3
2020-Sep-22
12.8 LD
9.1
33
2020 RD5
2020-Sep-22
10.6 LD
17.2
55
2020 SM2
2020-Sep-22
3.1 LD
4.5
7
2020 RB6
2020-Sep-22
6.7 LD
19.8
29
2020 RU7
2020-Sep-22
15.4 LD
6.3
31
2020 RE8
2020-Sep-23
18.1 LD
10.6
31
2020 RA2
2020-Sep-23
18.4 LD
5.4
22
2020 SN
2020-Sep-24
8.9 LD
6.9
38
2020 SC4
2020-Sep-24
15.1 LD
7.4
17
2020 ST3
2020-Sep-24
2.4 LD
4.8
4
2020 SW
2020-Sep-24
0.1 LD
7.7
5
2020 SN3
2020-Sep-24
1.7 LD
5.8
4
2020 SS4
2020-Sep-24
5.1 LD
8.6
48
2020 RO
2020-Sep-25
15.3 LD
11.8
78
2020 SH4
2020-Sep-25
4.2 LD
18.6
14
2020 SM
2020-Sep-25
15.6 LD
18.4
59
2020 SQ4
2020-Sep-26
0.9 LD
12.9
6
2020 RF4
2020-Sep-26
11.7 LD
13.8
42
2020 RF5
2020-Sep-27
14.1 LD
3.9
54
2020 SU4
2020-Sep-27
12.6 LD
9.1
65
2020 SO4
2020-Sep-27
6.7 LD
7.6
13
2020 SY4
2020-Sep-28
1.9 LD
16.1
11
2020 PM7
2020-Sep-29
7.5 LD
8.3
118
2020 SQ
2020-Sep-30
5.7 LD
5.9
12
2020 SO2
2020-Sep-30
18.1 LD
14.8
39
2020 SM4
2020-Oct-01
8.2 LD
7.6
10
2020 RJ3
2020-Oct-01
15.3 LD
15.5
70
2001 GP2
2020-Oct-01
6.1 LD
2.2
15
2020 RZ3
2020-Oct-02
15.6 LD
13.3
37
2020 SY3
2020-Oct-03
16.6 LD
7.8
24
2010 UC
2020-Oct-04
14.6 LD
3.2
12
2020 RV2
2020-Oct-05
14.9 LD
4.2
26
2020 RR2
2020-Oct-06
16.3 LD
4.1
28
2020 RK2
2020-Oct-07
10 LD
6.7
49
2019 SB6
2020-Oct-07
11.9 LD
7.6
16
2020 SX3
2020-Oct-08
4.4 LD
10.9
50
2020 RO1
2020-Oct-09
17.4 LD
3.2
29
2018 GD2
2020-Oct-13
16.4 LD
6.7
5
2020 RM6
2020-Oct-15
13 LD
7.7
39
2017 UH5
2020-Oct-20
8.9 LD
5.9
18
2020 SG3
2020-Oct-20
19.5 LD
5.3
33
2018 VG
2020-Oct-21
15.1 LD
6.7
12
2017 TK6
2020-Oct-24
17.3 LD
12.4
41
2008 GM2
2020-Oct-25
17.7 LD
3.6
8
2020 QD5
2020-Oct-26
10.1 LD
8.6
80
2020 OK5
2020-Oct-29
6.4 LD
1.3
27
2018 VP1
2020-Nov-02
1.1 LD
9.7
2
2020 HF4
2020-Nov-03
16.2 LD
2.9
11
2010 JL88
2020-Nov-05
10.5 LD
15.7
16
2019 XS
2020-Nov-07
15.4 LD
9.4
51
2018 VS4
2020-Nov-09
14.9 LD
10.1
25
2020 ST1
2020-Nov-14
19.1 LD
8.1
163
2019 VL5
2020-Nov-15
8.5 LD
8.2
23
2017 WJ16
2020-Nov-23
5 LD
4.8
49
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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