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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 505.3 km/sec
density: 6.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2
1948 UT Feb03
24-hr: A2
1203 UT Feb03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 03 Feb 21
High-latitude sunspot 2801 is small and poses little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 12
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 02 Feb 2021

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2021 total: 17 days (50%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 03 Feb 2021


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.57
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 02 Feb 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 73 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 03 Feb 2021

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +8.1% High
48-hr change: -0.7%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 03 Feb 2021 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4
unsettled
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.3 nT
Bz: -5.2 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 03 Feb 21

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 6-7.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds is now underway. Electric-blue clouds are ringing the South Pole.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2021 Feb 03 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2021 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
20 %
10 %
MINOR
05 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
20 %
MINOR
25 %
20 %
SEVERE
25 %
10 %
 
Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021
What's up in space
       
 

Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too!

 

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: What made the auroras of Feb. 2nd so good? It was a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving streams of solar wind. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, creating density gradients and shock waves that can rock Earth's magnetic field much like a CME. A CIR hit Earth on Feb. 2nd and ... see below. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

MIND-BENDING AURORAS: Usually, when aurora tour guide Marianne Bergli sees mind-bending auroras over Tromsø, Norway, she is surrounded by clients. Last night, she was all alone. "The lights were incredible--just fantastic," she says. "And I enjoyed the display all by myself."

"Every color in the heavens cycled through the sky," she says. "It. Was. Amazing."

This is what happens when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hits Earth during a global pandemic: Lots of auroras, few tourists. Despite the lack of witnesses, though, the outburst really happened.

In the wake of the CIR, solar wind is now blowing around Earth at speeds near 500 km/s. If these conditions persist, more Arctic mind-benders are possible on Feb. 3rd. Says Bergli, "you are welcome to join us." Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

VALENTINE'S GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Does someone in your life love space? Shop the Earth to Sky Store for their perfect Valentine's gift. All items in the store have flown to the stratosphere on board cosmic ray research balloons--and from now until Feb. 14th, everything is 10% off:

Each purchase comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again. Don't forget to enter the coupon code "ILOVESPACE" for your Valentine's discount!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Feb. 02, 2021, the network reported 10 fireballs.
(10 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On February 3, 2021 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2021 CD
2021-Jan-29
6.5 LD
9.1
13
2021 AG7
2021-Jan-29
11 LD
16.6
62
2021 BK3
2021-Jan-29
8.3 LD
11.4
45
2021 AF7
2021-Jan-29
17.8 LD
6.7
33
2021 BJ3
2021-Jan-31
9.7 LD
10.8
35
2020 TB12
2021-Feb-01
6.8 LD
8.9
145
2016 CL136
2021-Feb-01
13.8 LD
18.1
186
2020 SO
2021-Feb-02
0.6 LD
1.8
9
2018 PN22
2021-Feb-05
12.8 LD
2.5
11
2018 CH2
2021-Feb-05
14.6 LD
9.9
9
2021 BT
2021-Feb-07
18.7 LD
14
75
2008 DB
2021-Feb-10
13.1 LD
6
25
2019 YP5
2021-Feb-10
8.2 LD
13.5
123
2021 CA
2021-Feb-13
19.1 LD
10.2
60
2021 BM
2021-Feb-17
6 LD
2.9
31
2020 CX1
2021-Feb-18
4.9 LD
8.3
55
2020 BV9
2021-Feb-22
14.7 LD
7.6
22
2020 XU6
2021-Feb-22
10.7 LD
8.4
213
2015 EQ
2021-Feb-23
18 LD
10.5
21
2011 DW
2021-Mar-01
13.9 LD
13.6
89
2011 EH17
2021-Mar-02
9.6 LD
16.8
43
2016 DV1
2021-Mar-02
3.9 LD
18.4
39
1999 RM45
2021-Mar-02
7.7 LD
20
468
2020 SP
2021-Mar-03
18.4 LD
3.9
14
535844
2021-Mar-10
14.2 LD
7.3
162
2020 FM
2021-Mar-10
18.2 LD
13.3
57
2011 YW10
2021-Mar-12
19.8 LD
13.2
45
231937
2021-Mar-21
5.3 LD
34.4
1024
2020 GE
2021-Mar-27
12.7 LD
1.5
8
2019 GM1
2021-Mar-31
15.1 LD
3.9
14
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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