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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 495.6 km/sec
density: 4.07 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1146 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5
2129 UT Dec15
24-hr: M6
0734 UT Dec15
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 15 Dec 23
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
Sunspot AR3514 poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 126
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 15 Dec 2023

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 15 Dec 2023


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.34x1010 W Warm
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 14 Dec 2023

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 155 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 15 Dec 2023

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -5.0% Low
48-hr change: -1.0%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 15 Dec 2023 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3.33 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3.33
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 11.26 nT
Bz: -3.37 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1146 UT
Coronal Holes: 15 Dec 23

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Dec. 19th.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds
The northern season for NLCs began on May 26th. The first clouds were detected inside the Arctic Circle by the NOAA 21 satellite. An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). For the rest of the season, daily maps from NOAA 21 will be presented here:


Updated: Aug. 29, 2023

Each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

What happened to NASA's AIM spacecraft, which has been monitoring NLCs since 2007? Earlier this year, the spacecraft's battery failed. As a result AIM is offline, perhaps permanently. There may be some hope of a recovery as AIM's orbit precesses into full sunlight in 2024. Until then, we will maintain AIM's iconic "daily daisy," frozen at Feb. 28, 2023, as a show of thanks for years of service and hope for future daisies:
Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar
Updated Dec15
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2023 Dec 15 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
55 %
55 %
CLASS X
25 %
25 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2023 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
35 %
35 %
MINOR
30 %
30 %
SEVERE
15 %
15 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
20 %
20 %
 
Friday, Dec. 15, 2023
What's up in space
       
 

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by ChatGPT and other Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 15th at 1216 UT. It was a weak impact that did not spark a full-fledged geomagnetic storm. It might, however, set the stage for a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 17th when a CME from yesterday's X-flare is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. Storm levels could reach category G2 (Moderate). CME alerts: SMS Text

A FUSILLADE OF SOLAR FLARES: Sunspot 3514 continued to flare today with a strong M7-class event following close on the heels of yesterday's X2.8-class boomer. The X-flare on Dec. 14th was the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.

Only the fact that AR3514 is approaching the sun's western limb prevents it from causing strong geomagnetic storms here on Earth. Eruptions from the sunspot are a little off-target. Nevertheless, we will not escape unscathed. The X2.8-class flare hurled a fast-moving CME into space, and it will probably graze Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 17th. We are still awaiting the results of NOAA modeling to confirm the timing of impact and the possible strength of any resulting geomagnetic storm. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

AMBER DRAGONFLY SPACE PENDANT: This dragonfly has touched space. On Nov. 28th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon, 109,228 feet above California's Sierra Nevada:

You can have it for $179.95. Made of genuine Baltic Amber with a sterling silver exoskeleton, the pendant measures 1 1/4 inch and comes with a matching 18-inch sterling silver chain. The wings of the dragonfly include four pieces of natural amber colored Cognac, Olive Green and Honey Yellow.

The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Dec 14, 2023, the network reported 176 fireballs.
(129 Geminids, 42 sporadics, 3 December Monocerotids, 1 Comae Berenicids, 1 sigma Hydrid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On December 15, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2023 XP2
2023-Dec-10
5.8 LD
10.3
19
2023 WH
2023-Dec-10
11.9 LD
8.9
39
2020 HX3
2023-Dec-10
9.8 LD
15.7
13
2020 XC3
2023-Dec-10
20 LD
14.6
111
2023 XL13
2023-Dec-10
18.8 LD
10.8
25
2023 XH3
2023-Dec-10
4.6 LD
15.1
14
2023 XT4
2023-Dec-10
4.4 LD
8.9
16
2023 XC13
2023-Dec-11
3.3 LD
25.6
16
2023 XZ13
2023-Dec-11
2.3 LD
8.7
8
2023 XP1
2023-Dec-11
15.2 LD
9.6
40
2023 XH2
2023-Dec-11
5 LD
10
19
2010 XF3
2023-Dec-11
19.4 LD
4
46
2023 XN3
2023-Dec-12
13.7 LD
8.4
16
2023 WO3
2023-Dec-12
9.3 LD
9.3
42
2023 XZ2
2023-Dec-12
3.4 LD
6.7
10
2023 XO1
2023-Dec-12
4.3 LD
7.2
14
2023 XH7
2023-Dec-13
2.5 LD
19.8
11
2023 XU4
2023-Dec-14
3.9 LD
6.2
12
2023 XB12
2023-Dec-14
13.1 LD
4.9
27
2023 XO10
2023-Dec-14
10.5 LD
16.5
18
2023 XB3
2023-Dec-14
13.9 LD
9.9
15
2023 XZ11
2023-Dec-15
3.7 LD
14.7
33
2023 WV23
2023-Dec-15
5.2 LD
6.6
60
2023 XL4
2023-Dec-15
11.4 LD
6.6
22
2023 XK10
2023-Dec-15
17.7 LD
13.6
45
2023 XY2
2023-Dec-15
9.7 LD
13.4
35
2023 XU12
2023-Dec-15
12.7 LD
4.7
14
2023 XK4
2023-Dec-15
3.4 LD
4.2
15
2023 XV2
2023-Dec-15
15.9 LD
6.5
22
2023 XJ13
2023-Dec-16
9.7 LD
9.2
14
2023 XJ10
2023-Dec-17
8.3 LD
16.1
29
2023 XH1
2023-Dec-17
15.2 LD
5.4
17
2023 XA14
2023-Dec-17
10.7 LD
5.4
12
2023 XL11
2023-Dec-18
6.2 LD
11.7
17
2023 XF2
2023-Dec-19
9.8 LD
8
22
2016 XD2
2023-Dec-19
18.8 LD
6.9
59
2023 XS
2023-Dec-19
11.5 LD
9.1
31
341843
2023-Dec-20
16.5 LD
5.3
344
2018 YJ2
2023-Dec-21
18.4 LD
13.1
154
2022 YG
2023-Dec-22
11.2 LD
5.1
17
2023 VD6
2023-Dec-23
10.6 LD
15.5
159
2023 XN10
2023-Dec-23
18.4 LD
9.9
67
2020 YO3
2023-Dec-23
3.6 LD
16.6
42
2023 XN11
2023-Dec-24
9.3 LD
10.4
42
2010 UE51
2023-Dec-24
9 LD
1.3
7
2023 XP13
2023-Dec-24
11.8 LD
18.7
26
2020 YR2
2023-Dec-25
13.8 LD
8
8
2023 XJ3
2023-Dec-25
16.5 LD
9.2
54
2020 KT4
2023-Dec-25
13.4 LD
7.3
76
2023 XO7
2023-Dec-26
6.3 LD
6.7
22
2023 XE12
2023-Dec-31
14.7 LD
11.8
41
2021 AM6
2023-Dec-31
18.3 LD
6.6
17
2019 KK5
2024-Jan-03
10.6 LD
20.9
98
2002 AY1
2024-Jan-08
15.2 LD
17.3
230
2023 XN13
2024-Jan-09
15.7 LD
1.4
8
2020 AC1
2024-Jan-11
19.3 LD
5.3
7
2023 WZ3
2024-Jan-11
16.1 LD
4
35
2021 CZ2
2024-Jan-16
8 LD
14.3
113
2021 BL3
2024-Jan-23
17.2 LD
23.4
41
2017 BG92
2024-Jan-25
11.8 LD
6.3
6
2011 CQ1
2024-Jan-26
11.3 LD
4.6
1
2007 EG
2024-Jan-30
16 LD
8.6
43
2008 OS7
2024-Feb-02
7.5 LD
18.2
285
2019 CC5
2024-Feb-04
19.2 LD
15
139
2023 SP1
2024-Feb-07
14.3 LD
11.8
256
2020 DK
2024-Feb-12
8.9 LD
9.9
22
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Starlink Satellite Statistics
  current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page
The Aerospace Corporation
  Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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