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ALL QUIET: Solar activity is low and it is likely to remain so through Christmas. All of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun have relatively stable magnetic fields that pose a threat for, at most, minor C-class flares. The situation could change next week when one or more farside sunspots come over the horizon. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
CRYOVOLCANIC COMET OCCULTATION: What are the odds? For the second time in little more than a week, cryovolcanic Comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann is about to occult a star, giving astronomers an opportunity to trace the comet's strangely spherical shape. The shadow track on Dec. 27th cuts across many populated areas in western USA:
"This event may prove to be the best this decade, so observers please do try and cover it," says Dr. Richard Miles of the British Astronomical Association, a leading researcher of 29P. "It involves a 13th magnitude star," with occultation times range from 12:20:10 UT in San Antonio, Texas, to 12:21:30 UT in Redding, California.
"A video record, preferably with absolute timing, is required," he adds. "Frame exposure times of 0.25 sec or shorter are recommended. The current weather forecast suggests that the north-western half of the track will be plagued by cloud. Most of New Mexico and Texas look to have largely clear skies early on the Tuesday morning."
For updates, check the MISSION 29P website.
CHRISTMAS COMET ALERT (UPDATED): If it's not too late, ask for a telescope for Christmas. Comet ZTF (C/2022 E3) is approaching Earth for a close encounter next month, and it already looks great. Michael Jaeger of Martinsberg, Austria, photographed the two-tailed interplanetary snowball on Dec. 22nd:
"This comet has become an exciting object," says Jaeger, "Although it will not reach maximum brightness until late January or February, it already shows two tails and a bright green atmosphere."
Discovered in March 2022 by the Zwicky Transient Facility, Comet ZTF is falling in from the outer solar system. Perihelion (closest approach to the sun) will occur on Jan. 12, 2023, at a distance of 1.11 AU. Closest approach to Earth follows on Feb. 1, 2023, at a distance of 0.28 AU. Between those two dates, the comet could hit magnitude 5 or 6, technically visible to the unaided eye.
The two tails Jaeger saw are the dust tail and the ion tail. The ion tail is made of gas and is blown directly away from the sun by the solar wind. The heavier dust tail is curved and more closely traces the comet's orbit.
According to Jaeger, the comet is currently 8th magnitude, which makes it an easy target for mid-sized backyard telescopes. A New Moon over Christmas weekend will provide dark skies for comet-finding. Point your optics here.
more images: from Alan C. Tough using a telescope in Mayhill, New Mexico; from Johnny Barton of Robinson, Texas; from Graziano Ventre of Bellagio Via Lattea, Italy
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GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.
These unique gifts have floated above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out. Don't forget to enter coupon code "SPACESANTA" at checkout for a 10% holiday discount.
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec 22, 2022, the network reported 7 fireballs.
(4 sporadics, 2 Ursids, 1 December Leonis Minorid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On December 22, 2022 there were 2320 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2022 YO1 | 2022-Dec-17 | 0.1 LD | 15.4 | 4 |
| 2022 YM1 | 2022-Dec-17 | 1.6 LD | 2.7 | 6 |
| 2022 WU11 | 2022-Dec-17 | 11.7 LD | 10.6 | 31 |
| 2016 YE | 2022-Dec-18 | 18.6 LD | 4.8 | 23 |
| 2022 YJ | 2022-Dec-18 | 0.7 LD | 24.8 | 6 |
| 2022 YS1 | 2022-Dec-18 | 8 LD | 26 | 55 |
| 2022 WX5 | 2022-Dec-18 | 20.1 LD | 4.2 | 34 |
| 2022 YX1 | 2022-Dec-18 | 0.7 LD | 7.6 | 7 |
| 2022 YC | 2022-Dec-18 | 1 LD | 5 | 5 |
| 2022 XC1 | 2022-Dec-18 | 8.3 LD | 7.1 | 21 |
| 2022 YP2 | 2022-Dec-19 | 4.9 LD | 14.8 | 37 |
| 2022 YQ | 2022-Dec-19 | 4.2 LD | 14.7 | 8 |
| 2022 YO2 | 2022-Dec-20 | 3.7 LD | 7.4 | 18 |
| 2014 HK129 | 2022-Dec-20 | 6.7 LD | 11.6 | 216 |
| 2022 YE2 | 2022-Dec-21 | 13.9 LD | 17.3 | 54 |
| 2017 XQ60 | 2022-Dec-21 | 18.8 LD | 16 | 45 |
| 2022 YK | 2022-Dec-22 | 3.2 LD | 2.8 | 7 |
| 2022 YG | 2022-Dec-22 | 6.3 LD | 5.5 | 17 |
| 2022 UD9 | 2022-Dec-22 | 4.6 LD | 10.3 | 159 |
| 2022 YG2 | 2022-Dec-22 | 1 LD | 6.4 | 7 |
| 2022 RD2 | 2022-Dec-22 | 13.9 LD | 1.1 | 7 |
| 2022 YN | 2022-Dec-23 | 20 LD | 6.8 | 25 |
| 2022 YB | 2022-Dec-23 | 10.3 LD | 5.8 | 27 |
| 2022 YO | 2022-Dec-24 | 3.5 LD | 9.3 | 13 |
| 2022 XN | 2022-Dec-24 | 8.5 LD | 11 | 47 |
| 2022 XM1 | 2022-Dec-24 | 9.7 LD | 12.7 | 31 |
| 2022 YL1 | 2022-Dec-25 | 7.7 LD | 12.2 | 51 |
| 2022 YY1 | 2022-Dec-25 | 5.2 LD | 14.7 | 23 |
| 2013 YA14 | 2022-Dec-25 | 2.7 LD | 10.5 | 68 |
| 2022 TE14 | 2022-Dec-25 | 11.2 LD | 7 | 127 |
| 2018 YK2 | 2022-Dec-26 | 15.8 LD | 15.1 | 98 |
| 2022 YB1 | 2022-Dec-26 | 5.7 LD | 14.8 | 26 |
| 2019 LT5 | 2022-Dec-27 | 16.2 LD | 15 | 118 |
| 2022 YG1 | 2022-Dec-27 | 11.3 LD | 16 | 26 |
| 2022 WV9 | 2022-Dec-27 | 6.5 LD | 7.2 | 47 |
| 2010 XC15 | 2022-Dec-27 | 2 LD | 10.1 | 182 |
| 2022 XL1 | 2022-Dec-27 | 7.6 LD | 8.4 | 30 |
| 2022 YL | 2022-Dec-27 | 7.9 LD | 5.7 | 19 |
| 2021 AE | 2022-Dec-28 | 16.5 LD | 15 | 23 |
| 2022 YR1 | 2023-Jan-01 | 16.3 LD | 6 | 21 |
| 2021 NF | 2023-Jan-02 | 17.9 LD | 11.3 | 40 |
| 2011 WR41 | 2023-Jan-03 | 15.8 LD | 8.9 | 34 |
| 2019 AY3 | 2023-Jan-04 | 16.8 LD | 19.7 | 62 |
| 2022 YN1 | 2023-Jan-06 | 18.3 LD | 5.5 | 57 |
| 2021 TL | 2023-Jan-09 | 14.2 LD | 8.5 | 75 |
| 2014 LJ | 2023-Jan-14 | 4.8 LD | 3.5 | 7 |
| 2012 BV13 | 2023-Jan-16 | 12.2 LD | 6.7 | 134 |
| 2020 BP | 2023-Jan-20 | 5.2 LD | 16.9 | 26 |
| 2019 BO2 | 2023-Jan-24 | 12.1 LD | 16.2 | 21 |
| 2019 BZ4 | 2023-Jan-24 | 16.5 LD | 5.6 | 20 |
| 2020 BZ14 | 2023-Jan-26 | 8.8 LD | 6.7 | 54 |
| 2022 SO113 | 2023-Jan-29 | 10.5 LD | 3.5 | 73 |
| 2017 DU34 | 2023-Feb-02 | 13.3 LD | 11.2 | 16 |
| 367789 | 2023-Feb-03 | 4.7 LD | 9.9 | 149 |
| 2020 OO1 | 2023-Feb-04 | 4.8 LD | 7.7 | 19 |
| 2022 CX1 | 2023-Feb-09 | 17.4 LD | 13.2 | 14 |
| 2021 EP4 | 2023-Feb-13 | 19 LD | 6.1 | 5 |
| 199145 | 2023-Feb-16 | 12 LD | 24.6 | 756 |
| 2022 RG | 2023-Feb-16 | 8.2 LD | 3 | 24 |
| 2020 DG4 | 2023-Feb-17 | 1.4 LD | 6.9 | 8 |
| 2020 CX1 | 2023-Feb-19 | 17.4 LD | 7.7 | 53 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | the underlying science of space weather |
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