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POSSIBLE GLANCING-BLOW CME: NOAA forecasters say there is a slight chance that a CME might graze Earth today. It left the sun on Sept. 25th traveling near the edge of the Earth-strike zone. A glancing blow, if it occurs, would cause at most a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. CME alerts: SMS Text
PERIGEE HARVEST MOON: Everyone has heard of the Harvest Moon. It's the full Moon closest to the northern autumnal equinox. Tonight's Harvest Moon is special, though. It's a "perigee" Harvest Moon, 5 percent bigger and 13 percent brighter than usual. Mohamad Sol photographed it rising behind a lighthouse on Estartit beach in Spain:
What is a "perigee moon?" The Moon's orbit is an ellipse with one side ("perigee") about 50,000 km closer than the other ("apogee"). Full Moons that occur on the perigee side of the Moon's orbit are extra big and bright. This week's Moon becomes full within 32 hours of perigee, making it unusually close (359,910 km away) and, thus, a "perigee Harvest Moon."
Before the days of electric lights, farmers relied on moonlight to harvest ripening autumn crops after sunset. The extra-bright Harvest Moon of 2023 would've helped them collect a bumper crop. Submit your photos here.
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VAN GOGH WAVES IN THE MAGNETOSPHERE: When Vincent van Gogh painted "The Starry Night" in 1889, little did he know he was working at the forefront of 21st century astrophysics. A paper recently published in Nature Communications reveals that the same kind of waves pictured in the famous painting can cause geomagnetic storms on Earth.
Above: Vincent van Gogh's 'Starry Night', which he painted in 1889: more
Physicists call them "Kelvin Helmholtz waves." They ripple into existence when streams of gas flow past each other at different velocities. Van Gogh saw them in high clouds outside the window of his asylum in Saint-Rémy, France. They also form in space where the solar wind flows around Earth's magnetic field.
"We have found Kelvin-Helmholtz waves rippling down the flanks of Earth's magnetosphere," says Shiva Kavosi of Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University, lead author of the Nature paper. "NASA spacecraft are surfing the waves, and directly measuring their properties."
This was first suspected in the 1950s by theoreticians who made mathematical models of solar wind hitting Earth's magnetic field. However, until recently it was just an idea; there was no proof the waves existed. When Kavosi's team looked at data collected by NASA's THEMIS and MMS spacecraft since 2007, they saw clear evidence of Kelvin Helmholtz instabilities.
"The waves are huge," says Kavosi. "They are 2 to 6 Earth radii in wavelength and as much as 4 Earth radii in amplitude."
This computer model shows van Gogh waves moving down the flank of Earth's magnetosphere. Credit: Shiva Kasovi. [full-sized animation]
Imagine a wave taller than Earth curling over and breaking. That's exactly what happens. Kelvin-Helmholtz waves naturally break onto Earth's magnetic field, propelling energetic particles deep into the magnetosphere. This revs up Earth's radiation belts, triggering geomagnetic storms and auroras.
A key finding of Kavosi's paper is that the waves prefer equinoxes. They appear 3 times more frequently around the start of spring and fall than summer and winter. Researchers have long known that geomagnetic activity is highest around equinoxes. Kelvin-Helmholtz wave activity could be one reason why.
Our planet's seasonal dependence of geomagnetic activity has always been a bit of a puzzle. After all, the sun doesn't know when it's autumn on Earth. One idea holds that, around the time of the equinoxes, Earth's magnetic field links to the sun's because of the tilt of Earth's magnetic poles. This is called the Russell-McPherron effect after the researchers who first described it in 1973. Kavosi's research shows that Kelvin-Helmholtz waves might be important, too.
Northern autumn has just begun, which means Kelvin Helmholtz waves are rippling around our planet, stirring up "Starry Night" auroras. Happy autumn!
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SOLAR ECLIPSE TEST FLIGHT--SUCCESS! On Sept. 24th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a high-altitude balloon from eastern Nevada where, next month, there will be an annular solar eclipse. The balloon was released at sunrise so it would experience a range of lighting and temperature similar that of a deep eclipse. Everything worked--great flight (max. altitude 118767 feet), great landing, great photography. When we launch again on Oct. 14th, we should be able to photograph the Moon's shadow racing across the remote Nevada landscape.
To help pay for the flight, this pendant went along for the ride:
You can have it for $129.95. The handmade pendant shows an annular eclipse in progress, with the new Moon turning the sun into a ring of fire. Buy the pendent now and for no additional charge we will fly it back to the stratosphere during the annular eclipse. Just make a note in the COMMENTS BOX of your shopping cart: "Fly my pendant again!"
Note: We have photographed the shadow of an eclipse before. Here's what the total eclipse of Aug. 21, 2017, looked like from the stratosphere over the Nebraska-Wyoming border:
Total eclipses make deep black shadows, in this case blacking out more than 70 miles of terrain. What does the shadow of an *annular* eclipse look like? We hope to find out. It should be fuzzier around the edges, and not nearly as dark in the middle. An overview from the stratosphere could provide a unique picture.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Sep 28, 2023, the network reported 2 fireballs.
(2 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On September 28, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2023 ST6 | 2023-Sep-23 | 17.3 LD | 36.4 | 39 |
2023 SC3 | 2023-Sep-23 | 16.4 LD | 9.6 | 15 |
2023 SQ6 | 2023-Sep-23 | 2.3 LD | 9.7 | 15 |
2023 SF7 | 2023-Sep-23 | 18.6 LD | 8.4 | 21 |
2023 RU3 | 2023-Sep-23 | 19.8 LD | 11.6 | 34 |
2023 SO6 | 2023-Sep-23 | 6.7 LD | 8.1 | 17 |
2023 SM5 | 2023-Sep-23 | 1 LD | 11.5 | 18 |
2023 SV2 | 2023-Sep-23 | 4.5 LD | 12.8 | 14 |
2023 SW5 | 2023-Sep-23 | 9.4 LD | 10.9 | 30 |
2023 RD15 | 2023-Sep-24 | 6 LD | 5 | 15 |
2023 SQ1 | 2023-Sep-24 | 5.4 LD | 20.5 | 20 |
2023 SD3 | 2023-Sep-24 | 15.7 LD | 3.5 | 16 |
2023 SB2 | 2023-Sep-24 | 6.9 LD | 8 | 11 |
2023 SP3 | 2023-Sep-24 | 0.9 LD | 11.7 | 17 |
2023 ST2 | 2023-Sep-25 | 7.8 LD | 21.2 | 21 |
2023 SH7 | 2023-Sep-25 | 0.1 LD | 8.6 | 2 |
2023 SZ | 2023-Sep-25 | 5.6 LD | 4.3 | 24 |
2023 SY3 | 2023-Sep-26 | 3.4 LD | 7.9 | 15 |
2023 SO5 | 2023-Sep-26 | 13 LD | 16.8 | 24 |
2023 SX7 | 2023-Sep-26 | 11.2 LD | 10.4 | 35 |
2019 SF6 | 2023-Sep-26 | 16.7 LD | 8.6 | 20 |
2023 SP6 | 2023-Sep-26 | 1.5 LD | 17 | 9 |
2023 SE2 | 2023-Sep-27 | 7.7 LD | 23.9 | 25 |
2023 SF6 | 2023-Sep-27 | 3.8 LD | 17.4 | 20 |
2023 SY1 | 2023-Sep-28 | 7.2 LD | 10.1 | 12 |
2023 RF3 | 2023-Sep-28 | 15.4 LD | 7.7 | 38 |
2023 SW6 | 2023-Sep-28 | 3.5 LD | 11.9 | 18 |
2013 TG6 | 2023-Sep-28 | 3.6 LD | 4.1 | 17 |
2023 SE4 | 2023-Sep-29 | 5.3 LD | 4.6 | 14 |
2023 RF9 | 2023-Sep-29 | 10.6 LD | 9.2 | 26 |
2023 SC4 | 2023-Sep-30 | 12.4 LD | 8.3 | 22 |
2023 SA6 | 2023-Sep-30 | 16.4 LD | 9.7 | 22 |
2009 UG | 2023-Sep-30 | 6.1 LD | 9 | 78 |
2023 SY2 | 2023-Oct-01 | 9.1 LD | 9.9 | 21 |
349507 | 2023-Oct-03 | 16.5 LD | 21 | 696 |
2022 FX1 | 2023-Oct-04 | 20 LD | 9.9 | 25 |
2023 SN6 | 2023-Oct-04 | 12.6 LD | 8.5 | 27 |
2019 QO5 | 2023-Oct-05 | 19.9 LD | 9.4 | 61 |
2023 RF10 | 2023-Oct-05 | 15.8 LD | 5.8 | 27 |
2023 QC8 | 2023-Oct-05 | 15.8 LD | 6.3 | 43 |
2022 TD | 2023-Oct-07 | 8.9 LD | 9.4 | 10 |
2023 RR29 | 2023-Oct-07 | 9.2 LD | 8.1 | 35 |
2023 SA1 | 2023-Oct-08 | 17.9 LD | 5.9 | 26 |
2018 ER1 | 2023-Oct-08 | 12.5 LD | 5.3 | 27 |
2022 UX1 | 2023-Oct-11 | 3.1 LD | 8.6 | 9 |
2023 RD11 | 2023-Oct-11 | 12.8 LD | 9.6 | 39 |
2015 KW120 | 2023-Oct-12 | 18.2 LD | 13 | 22 |
2021 NT14 | 2023-Oct-13 | 18.6 LD | 8.6 | 254 |
2011 GA | 2023-Oct-15 | 6.8 LD | 16.6 | 230 |
2007 SQ6 | 2023-Oct-15 | 19.4 LD | 6.5 | 130 |
2019 UZ3 | 2023-Oct-16 | 9.6 LD | 8.3 | 14 |
1998 HH49 | 2023-Oct-17 | 3.1 LD | 14.8 | 193 |
2022 UO10 | 2023-Oct-19 | 7.8 LD | 9.8 | 16 |
2020 UR | 2023-Oct-20 | 5.8 LD | 12.9 | 9 |
2020 FM6 | 2023-Oct-23 | 15.5 LD | 15.9 | 149 |
2019 HH4 | 2023-Oct-24 | 13.3 LD | 20 | 365 |
2023 RA4 | 2023-Oct-24 | 8.4 LD | 3.9 | 49 |
2021 SZ4 | 2023-Oct-26 | 14 LD | 30 | 287 |
302169 | 2023-Oct-26 | 12.7 LD | 25.7 | 374 |
525229 | 2023-Oct-30 | 10.6 LD | 17.4 | 200 |
2013 UV3 | 2023-Nov-01 | 14.7 LD | 15.4 | 16 |
2016 WY | 2023-Nov-02 | 9.1 LD | 3.9 | 5 |
363505 | 2023-Nov-02 | 13.7 LD | 8 | 709 |
2022 JF | 2023-Nov-03 | 15.2 LD | 17.2 | 39 |
2023 QP8 | 2023-Nov-03 | 17.1 LD | 8.8 | 174 |
2016 VW2 | 2023-Nov-03 | 10.1 LD | 8.1 | 20 |
2019 UH7 | 2023-Nov-04 | 9.9 LD | 5.9 | 11 |
2014 BA3 | 2023-Nov-13 | 15.7 LD | 2.7 | 8 |
2021 TN3 | 2023-Nov-15 | 17 LD | 6.3 | 31 |
2019 VL5 | 2023-Nov-16 | 8.5 LD | 8.2 | 24 |
2019 LB1 | 2023-Nov-18 | 15.8 LD | 4.2 | 14 |
2016 DK1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 5.3 LD | 6.8 | 11 |
2022 VR1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 8.1 LD | 6.1 | 39 |
2019 UT6 | 2023-Nov-24 | 9 LD | 13.2 | 141 |
2019 CZ2 | 2023-Nov-25 | 2.8 LD | 5.8 | 43 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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