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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on May 23rd when a CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. A miss is just as likely as a hit, so this is an uncertain forecast. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
TREES REMEMBER AN ICE AGE SOLAR STORM: More than 14 thousand years ago, there was a solar storm so big, trees still remember it. Dwarfing modern solar storms, the event would devastate technology if it happened again today. Spoiler alert: It could.
Subfossil trees along the banks of the Drouzet river in France [ref]
The record-strong storm is described by a paper in the upcoming July 2025 edition of the peer-reviewed journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. It occured in 12,350 BC and is classified as a "Miyake Event."
Miyake Events are solar storms that make the Carrington Event of 1859 look puny. Trees "remember" them in their rings, which store the carbon-14 created by gargantuan storms. At least six Miyake Events have been discovered and confirmed since Fusa Miyake found the first one in 2012. The list so far includes 664-663 BC, 774 AD, 993 AD, 5259 BC, 7176 BC, and 12,350 BC.
The Miyake Event of 12,350 BC is especially intriguing. It appears as a carbon-14 spike in Scots Pine trees along the banks of the Drouzet river in France, with a matching beryllium-10 spike in Greenland ice cores. The event was global and, based on the size of the spikes, very big.
At first, no one could say how big the storm was because it happened during the Ice Age.
Carbon-14 storage is complicated. When a solar storm creates carbon-14 in the upper atmosphere, the radioisotope doesn't immediately appear in the woody flesh of trees. Getting there involves months to years of atmospheric circulation influenced by climate and geography, and even then the carbon-14 has to arrive during the tree's growing season, otherwise it won't be "taken up." High-altitude trees are favored because they encounter the carbon-14 first, while different species each have their own sensitivity.
All these factors are a harder to tease out in the Ice Age. Most known Miyake Events occurred after the Ice Age, during the Holocene, a period of relatively stable and warm climate starting about 12,000 years ago. Climate scientists have atmospheric circulation models for the Holocene, so interpreting Miyake Events in 7176 BC, 5259 BC, 664-663 BC, 993 AD, 774 AD was relatively straightforward. Not so, the event of 12,350 BC.
To solve this problem, Kseniia Golubenko and Ilya Usoskin from the University of Oulu in Finland developed a chemistry-climate model (SOCOL:14C-Ex) specifically for Ice Age solar storms. It takes into account ice sheet boundaries, sea levels, and geomagnetic fields that existed during the Pleistocene's Late Glacial period. Using this model, they were able to interpret tree ring data for 12,350 BC.
According to their paper, 12,350 BC is the biggest Miyake Event yet. It produced a hailstorm of solar particles 500 times greater than the most intense solar particle storm recorded by modern satellites in 2005. During the 2005 event, an airline passenger flying over the poles might have received a year's worth of sea-level cosmic radiation in just one hour. During the 12350 BC event, the same dose would have been received in a mere eight seconds.
This would seem to set a new standard for worst-case scenarios in space weather. However, the real news is deeper: The door to the Ice Age has been kicked open by SOCOL:14C-Ex. Older tree rings may now be interpreted with confidence, potentially revealing even worse storms.
Stay tuned for more news from the trees.
THE REDSHIFT PENDANT: Give a gift that’s truly out of this world. The Redshift Pendant has journeyed to the edge of space, lifted 104,002 ft above our planet by an Earth to Sky cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $179.95. The premium Swarovski crystal has a deep ruby hue inspired by the expansion of the Universe--or "redshift" in the love language of astronomy. It is surrounded by a dozen glittering 5A cubic zirconia nuggets in a frame plated with hypoallergenic 18k rose gold. Also, it comes with a photo of the pendant in space for a truly unforgettable presentation.
The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each pendant comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
HOUSE-SIZED ASTEROID BUZZES EARTH: Newly discovered asteroid 2025 KF made a close approach to Earth last night—skimming by at a distance of just 0.3 lunar distances (72,000 miles). Australian astrophotographer Dennis Simmons captured the space rock's fleeting visit from Brisbane:
"I'd been browsing Spaceweather when I noticed the flyby alert," says Simmons. "So I set up to see if I could record this fast-moving NEO."
The 20-meter-wide asteroid was speeding across the night sky at a rate that challenged amateur tracking systems. Simmons relied on NASA JPL Horizons data rather than his mount’s native planetarium software, which was off by nearly 6 degrees. "JPL was bang on the target," he confirmed.
2025 KF was discovered only two days ago by astronomers at the MAP project in Chile's Atacama Desert. Despite its close approach, the asteroid posed no danger to Earth. One day, though, such an advance warning might save us from Armageddon.
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On May 21, 2025, the network reported 8 fireballs.
(8 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On May 22, 2025 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2025 HD19 | 2025-May-17 | 7.3 LD | 9 | 28 |
| 2025 KA | 2025-May-17 | 4.2 LD | 11.8 | 23 |
| 2025 KD | 2025-May-18 | 3.6 LD | 6.7 | 24 |
| 2025 KN | 2025-May-18 | 3.8 LD | 10.7 | 14 |
| 2025 KY | 2025-May-19 | 1.9 LD | 14.7 | 13 |
| 2025 KZ | 2025-May-19 | 2.1 LD | 18.1 | 19 |
| 2025 KE | 2025-May-19 | 12.1 LD | 7.8 | 59 |
| 2008 ST | 2025-May-20 | 13.5 LD | 2.5 | 14 |
| 2025 JE1 | 2025-May-20 | 11.4 LD | 1.4 | 24 |
| 2025 KO | 2025-May-21 | 20.1 LD | 6.7 | 34 |
| 2025 KB1 | 2025-May-21 | 7.5 LD | 8.3 | 30 |
| 2025 KF | 2025-May-21 | 0.3 LD | 11.6 | 14 |
| 2025 KH | 2025-May-22 | 2.9 LD | 11.4 | 12 |
| 2025 KE1 | 2025-May-23 | 0.5 LD | 18.7 | 18 |
| 2025 KC | 2025-May-23 | 2.7 LD | 7.5 | 17 |
| 387746 | 2025-May-24 | 17.4 LD | 8.3 | 339 |
| 2025 KL | 2025-May-24 | 8 LD | 8.2 | 15 |
| 2025 KM | 2025-May-25 | 4 LD | 3.6 | 8 |
| 2014 KF22 | 2025-May-25 | 9.1 LD | 11.5 | 19 |
| 390725 | 2025-May-25 | 18.4 LD | 13.5 | 410 |
| 2025 JP | 2025-May-27 | 13.4 LD | 7 | 25 |
| 2025 KW | 2025-May-28 | 12.9 LD | 13.5 | 29 |
| 2025 JR | 2025-May-28 | 12.1 LD | 11.3 | 80 |
| 2025 FU5 | 2025-May-28 | 13.4 LD | 7.3 | 92 |
| 2025 KR | 2025-May-29 | 12.9 LD | 13.8 | 43 |
| 2025 KK | 2025-May-30 | 1.9 LD | 4.5 | 11 |
| 2022 KP3 | 2025-May-30 | 10.2 LD | 7.7 | 7 |
| 2025 KP | 2025-May-30 | 3.2 LD | 11.5 | 31 |
| 2025 KC1 | 2025-May-31 | 5.3 LD | 8.8 | 22 |
| 2025 KG | 2025-Jun-04 | 15.2 LD | 3.5 | 19 |
| 424482 | 2025-Jun-05 | 9.1 LD | 6.2 | 421 |
| 2020 LQ | 2025-Jun-06 | 17.3 LD | 11.8 | 34 |
| 2018 LE4 | 2025-Jun-07 | 12.2 LD | 13.3 | 62 |
| 2014 LL26 | 2025-Jun-08 | 8 LD | 5.2 | 31 |
| 2015 XR1 | 2025-Jun-12 | 18.1 LD | 12.6 | 81 |
| 2022 KQ5 | 2025-Jun-12 | 13.6 LD | 5.1 | 5 |
| 2023 XO15 | 2025-Jun-15 | 17.8 LD | 3.4 | 24 |
| 2025 HN6 | 2025-Jun-16 | 6.4 LD | 2.3 | 24 |
| 2000 LF3 | 2025-Jun-17 | 18.9 LD | 14.5 | 169 |
| 2023 XU2 | 2025-Jun-18 | 11.1 LD | 15.6 | 32 |
| 2003 AY2 | 2025-Jun-22 | 14.2 LD | 15.9 | 386 |
| 2014 DH | 2025-Jun-28 | 17.1 LD | 12.1 | 17 |
| 2019 JM | 2025-Jul-09 | 16.6 LD | 6.9 | 14 |
| 2019 NW5 | 2025-Jul-09 | 15.2 LD | 16.5 | 65 |
| 2005 VO5 | 2025-Jul-11 | 15.9 LD | 14.4 | 382 |
| 2022 YS5 | 2025-Jul-17 | 17.4 LD | 6.1 | 38 |
| 2018 BY6 | 2025-Jul-19 | 13.7 LD | 7.4 | 69 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
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