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20% CHANCE OF X-FLARES: Remember, Groundhog Day? Today's forecast is like a scene from that movie. Once again, AR3889 is threatening to produce an X-class solar flare--without actually producing one. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that could explode at any moment. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of X-flares on Nov. 14th. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
A RARE SINE WAVE IN THE MAGNETOSPHERE: Imagine you're at a hard rock concert. Waves of heavy metal crash against your eardrums, you can barely hear a thing, when, suddenly, the delicate trill of a flute cuts through the cacophony.
Something like that happened to Stuart Green of Lancashire UK during the severe geomagnetic storm of Oct. 10, 2024. "My backyard magnetogram was a riot," says Green. "But when I took a closer look, there was a delicate wave riding on top of the 'noise.'"
Green detected a rare "pulsation continuous"--or "Pc wave" for short. This is research jargon meaning, essentially, a pure sine wave in the magnetosphere. Pc waves are classified into 5 types depending on their frequency. Green's specimens are Pc1 and Pc2.
Usually, Pc waves are recorded only during periods of extreme quiet. They are delicate and hard to detect. Capturing one during riotous geomagnetic activity is extremely unusual. It is a testament to the sensitivity of Green's research-grade (albeit homemade) magnetometer--and the degree to which every mode of the magnetosphere was simultaneously activated by the Oct. 10th storm.
So what? These particular waves matter because they can help satellites survive severe space storms. Fast Pc1 and Pc2 waves scatter "killer electrons" out of the Van Allen radiation belts, making the region safer for satellites that orbit through the belts when they are supercharged by solar activity.
Would you like to monitor the magnetosphere for rare waves? Stuart Green's backyard magnetometer is a great DIY project. Here are the instructions.
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"I LOVE YOU MORE" MOONSTONE PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Nothing says "I love you" like a moonstone from space. This one hitched a ride on an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon, floating 112,201 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:
You can have it for $142.95. The students are selling these sterling silver infinity-wrapped moonstone pendants to support their ballooning program. Engraved with "I Love You More," it makes a romantic anniversary or birthday gift. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the moonstone in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
A SOLAR WIND STREAM IS AFFECTING EARTH: Today, a stream of solar wind is grazing Earth's magnetic field. It's not a fast-moving stream, but it is affecting our planet. Note the red-boxed region in this graph of solar wind data from NASA's ACE spacecraft:
The red box highlights south-pointing magnetic fields in the solar wind stream. These south-pointing fields are partially canceling our planet's north-pointing magnetic field. Resulting weak points (sometimes called "magnetic cracks") allow solar wind to enter Earth's magnetosphere, fueling geomagnetic unrest and Arctic auroras.
Arctic sky watchers, if you have pictures of the light show, submit them here.
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 13, 2024, the network reported 29 fireballs.
(25 sporadics, 2 northern Taurid, 1 Leonid, 1 November iota Draconid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On November 14, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2024 UU9 | 2024-Nov-09 | 14.5 LD | 8.8 | 17 |
| 2024 VE | 2024-Nov-09 | 5.5 LD | 10.4 | 23 |
| 2024 UU4 | 2024-Nov-09 | 19.4 LD | 5.7 | 15 |
| 2024 VB3 | 2024-Nov-09 | 9.3 LD | 7.2 | 24 |
| 2024 VL2 | 2024-Nov-09 | 8.1 LD | 6.8 | 26 |
| 2024 UZ | 2024-Nov-10 | 16.4 LD | 4.9 | 19 |
| 2024 VY3 | 2024-Nov-10 | 2 LD | 11 | 10 |
| 2024 UC3 | 2024-Nov-10 | 11 LD | 6.6 | 28 |
| 2024 UK8 | 2024-Nov-11 | 19.7 LD | 18.7 | 21 |
| 2024 VC3 | 2024-Nov-11 | 15.9 LD | 12.9 | 45 |
| 2024 VA4 | 2024-Nov-11 | 2.8 LD | 10 | 32 |
| 2019 WB7 | 2024-Nov-11 | 17.3 LD | 5.7 | 43 |
| 2024 VP4 | 2024-Nov-11 | 0.8 LD | 3.7 | 7 |
| 2024 UE4 | 2024-Nov-11 | 3.4 LD | 12.5 | 29 |
| 2024 VH1 | 2024-Nov-12 | 1.3 LD | 10 | 17 |
| 2020 UL3 | 2024-Nov-12 | 4.1 LD | 10.5 | 80 |
| 2020 AB2 | 2024-Nov-13 | 18.9 LD | 7.2 | 14 |
| 2024 VO2 | 2024-Nov-13 | 11.4 LD | 6.8 | 14 |
| 2024 VX3 | 2024-Nov-13 | 0.4 LD | 7 | 8 |
| 2024 VV1 | 2024-Nov-14 | 19 LD | 6 | 15 |
| 2024 UA10 | 2024-Nov-14 | 19.1 LD | 15.5 | 31 |
| 2019 VU5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 12 LD | 23.3 | 46 |
| 2019 VL5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 9.6 LD | 8.5 | 24 |
| 2024 UE13 | 2024-Nov-15 | 19.7 LD | 7.9 | 27 |
| 2024 VK3 | 2024-Nov-16 | 1.1 LD | 11.1 | 12 |
| 2024 VS3 | 2024-Nov-16 | 4.3 LD | 13.1 | 21 |
| 2024 VC4 | 2024-Nov-16 | 6.5 LD | 19.3 | 29 |
| 2024 VZ2 | 2024-Nov-17 | 3.3 LD | 10.2 | 22 |
| 2024 UC5 | 2024-Nov-17 | 10.8 LD | 4.2 | 20 |
| 2024 VT3 | 2024-Nov-18 | 12.6 LD | 12.3 | 41 |
| 2023 WK3 | 2024-Nov-18 | 16.1 LD | 14.5 | 272 |
| 2024 UZ10 | 2024-Nov-18 | 11.6 LD | 13.2 | 47 |
| 2024 VU2 | 2024-Nov-19 | 15.1 LD | 8.7 | 40 |
| 2012 KO11 | 2024-Nov-20 | 6.2 LD | 9.4 | 43 |
| 2024 UW9 | 2024-Nov-20 | 13.5 LD | 14.8 | 45 |
| 2020 VX4 | 2024-Nov-20 | 10.5 LD | 10.5 | 11 |
| 2010 WC | 2024-Nov-21 | 1.9 LD | 9.1 | 31 |
| 2024 VY2 | 2024-Nov-24 | 16.4 LD | 13.3 | 54 |
| 2009 WB105 | 2024-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 |
| 2006 WB | 2024-Nov-26 | 2.3 LD | 4.2 | 98 |
| 2018 DC4 | 2024-Nov-29 | 18.8 LD | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2019 JN2 | 2024-Nov-30 | 9.4 LD | 7.7 | 25 |
| 2021 XZ | 2024-Dec-02 | 13.2 LD | 7.4 | 8 |
| 447755 | 2024-Dec-03 | 14.4 LD | 12.2 | 402 |
| 2020 XR | 2024-Dec-04 | 5.8 LD | 12.3 | 388 |
| 2021 WA5 | 2024-Dec-05 | 9.8 LD | 5.9 | 12 |
| 2024 UU3 | 2024-Dec-08 | 16.9 LD | 4.8 | 38 |
| 2018 XU3 | 2024-Dec-11 | 16.8 LD | 10.8 | 28 |
| 2007 XB23 | 2024-Dec-11 | 1.2 LD | 4.8 | 14 |
| 2022 YO1 | 2024-Dec-17 | 2 LD | 14.3 | 4 |
| 2020 XY4 | 2024-Dec-19 | 12.8 LD | 8.8 | 14 |
| 2017 YD2 | 2024-Dec-27 | 18 LD | 9.9 | 6 |
| 2024 AV2 | 2024-Dec-31 | 6.7 LD | 7.8 | 17 |
| 2021 AO4 | 2025-Jan-04 | 6.9 LD | 15.1 | 11 |
| 2020 BC6 | 2025-Jan-05 | 9.6 LD | 22.2 | 248 |
| 2024 BM1 | 2025-Jan-08 | 11.5 LD | 9.1 | 22 |
| 2024 PT5 | 2025-Jan-09 | 4.7 LD | 1 | 12 |
| 2023 OS3 | 2025-Jan-09 | 19.9 LD | 3.1 | 10 |
| 2012 UK171 | 2025-Jan-11 | 10.7 LD | 6.4 | 46 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
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| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
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