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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 364.2 km/sec
density: 2.31 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1146 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M6
1919 UT Mar18
24-hr: M6
1919 UT Mar18
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 18 Mar 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
A new and apparently complex sunspot group is emerging at the circled location. It poses a threat for strong M-class solar flares (based on the fact that M-flares were observed while it was still behind the sun's eastern limb). Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 86
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 18 Mar 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 18 Mar 2024


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.07x1010 W Warm
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 17 Mar 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 151 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 18 Mar 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -2.8% Low
48-hr change: +0.4%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 18 Mar 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2.33 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2.33
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.12 nT
Bz: 0.00 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1147 UT
Coronal Holes: 18 Mar 24

Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 24th.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Mar. 18, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is much too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The southern season for NLCs is over. The first clouds were detected inside the Antarctic Circle on Dec. 4, 2023, by the NOAA 21 satellite. The same satellite detected the last cloud on Feb. 21, 2024. Daily maps are now blank:

noctilucent clouds
Updated: Feb 22, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). Now that the southern season has ended, attention turns to the northern hemisphere. The first NLCs should appear inside the Arctic Circle in mid to late May.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2024 Mar 18 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
40 %
40 %
CLASS X
05 %
05 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2024 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
40 %
MINOR
05 %
25 %
SEVERE
01 %
05 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
05 %
MINOR
15 %
20 %
SEVERE
15 %
65 %
 
Monday, Mar. 18, 2024
What's up in space
       
 

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by ChatGPT and other Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Yesterday's "canyon of fire" CME (described below) could graze our planet's magnetic field on March 20th. If so, the timing would be perfect for equinox auroras. At this time of year, even a glancing blow from a CME can spark geomagnetic storms thanks to the springtime Russell-McPherron effect. NOAA forecasters say that G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on both March 20th and 21st in response to the incoming CME. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

CANYON OF FIRE ERUPTION (UPDATED): A large filament of magnetism stretching across the sun's southern hemisphere erupted on March 17th, carving a "canyon of fire" in the sun's atmosphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the blast:

Debris from the explosion produced a partial halo CME, seen here in a SOHO coronagraph movie. A NASA model of the storm cloud suggests it could strike Earth's magnetic field on March 20th, sparking high-latitude auroras on the first night of Northern Spring. NOAA's model generally agrees, but predicts a later arrival on March 21st. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE CROOKED TAIL OF COMET 12P: Something's not right with the tail of Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks. It's crooked. Astrophotographer Borut Prasnikar captured the phenomenon in this wide angle shot from Blegos, Slovenia:

"Here is the comet with its dynamic tail above Triglav, the highest peak in Slovenia," says Prasnikar. "Comet 12P was passing by the Andromeda Galaxy on March 13th when I took the photo, and I was able to capture them both with a 20x30-second exposure."

Why is 12P's tail bent? Researchers call it a "disconnection event," caused by a CME (or fast solar wind stream) hitting the comet. One of the earliest recorded examples of this phenomenon occured in April 2007 when NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft watched a CME strike Comet Encke and rip its tail completely off: movie.

This is just the beginning. Comet 12P is moving toward the sun for a close encounter (0.78 au) on April 21st. The comet is crossing Earth's orbit right now, so it will be closer to the sun than we are for the next 4 weeks. CMEs will be hitting it harder than ever, increasing the odds of additional disconnection events.

more images: from Alan C. Tough of Elgin, Moray, Scotland; from Dave Weixelman of Elk Creek, CA; from Fins Eirexas of Camariñas, Galiza, Iberian Penninsula;

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

18K GOLD "LOVE YOU TO THE MOON" LOCKET: This is a very special locket. It's heart-shaped, plated with 18K gold, and we will fly it again during this year's total eclipse of the sun. Keep reading...

On Jan. 26, 2024, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched this locket to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon. At the apex of the flight, it floated 111,535 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:

Buy it now for $149.95, and we'll fly it again--FOR FREE--during the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024. The students will be launching multiple balloons from the path of totality in Texas. Your pendant will go along for the ride, touching the shadow of the Moon at the edge of space. (Simply type "FLY IT AGAIN" in the comments box at checkout.)

The locket, which opens to hold a personal photo or other small item, comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Mar 17, 2024, the network reported 1 fireball.
(1 sporadic)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On March 18, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2024 EC3
2024-Mar-13
2.3 LD
7.2
7
2024 EL1
2024-Mar-13
8.5 LD
7.9
18
2024 EJ4
2024-Mar-13
0.1 LD
8.7
5
2024 EH3
2024-Mar-14
6.5 LD
10.1
28
2024 EK3
2024-Mar-15
1.6 LD
6.8
6
2020 FU
2024-Mar-15
14.9 LD
15.5
19
2024 EK4
2024-Mar-16
10.5 LD
4.3
10
2024 CJ8
2024-Mar-16
17.3 LD
12.1
81
2024 EQ
2024-Mar-16
6.9 LD
10.7
22
2024 EK
2024-Mar-16
7 LD
7.6
15
2024 EX2
2024-Mar-16
5.8 LD
6.2
19
2024 FD
2024-Mar-16
2.1 LD
10.2
12
2024 ER4
2024-Mar-17
0.4 LD
8.3
12
2024 EP3
2024-Mar-17
11.1 LD
8.9
41
2024 ED3
2024-Mar-18
3.5 LD
9.9
31
2024 EN3
2024-Mar-18
5.6 LD
6.4
16
2024 EN
2024-Mar-18
3.9 LD
12
46
2020 FD
2024-Mar-18
4.5 LD
15.1
10
2024 BD7
2024-Mar-19
18.8 LD
10.1
140
2024 EQ3
2024-Mar-20
12 LD
10.8
14
2024 EZ3
2024-Mar-20
11.6 LD
5.8
25
2024 EY3
2024-Mar-20
12 LD
11.6
44
2024 EU4
2024-Mar-23
18.9 LD
28.3
133
2024 EL4
2024-Mar-23
14.7 LD
11.8
38
2024 EC4
2024-Mar-24
19.5 LD
4
27
2019 CJ
2024-Mar-24
12.4 LD
4.4
28
2021 CF6
2024-Mar-25
14.6 LD
8.3
62
2024 EA3
2024-Mar-27
8.2 LD
10.8
46
2024 EO4
2024-Mar-27
13.1 LD
14.9
39
2024 EO3
2024-Mar-28
10.1 LD
11.4
39
2024 ES4
2024-Mar-28
17.8 LD
5.1
25
2024 ED4
2024-Mar-29
14.5 LD
7.8
18
2023 RO49
2024-Mar-29
14.1 LD
4.3
45
2015 MB54
2024-Mar-30
11.7 LD
3.8
54
2024 DQ
2024-Mar-30
6.4 LD
2.9
41
2018 CC14
2024-Apr-03
19.6 LD
8.9
115
2023 GC2
2024-Apr-04
8.7 LD
5.7
12
2005 FG
2024-Apr-08
18.4 LD
5.5
57
2020 BP13
2024-Apr-09
15.2 LD
6.8
209
2021 RJ19
2024-Apr-12
19.6 LD
11.4
25
2021 GQ5
2024-Apr-13
8.8 LD
7.5
7
2023 FN13
2024-Apr-14
3.3 LD
4.9
13
2022 UO1
2024-Apr-14
16.7 LD
14
33
517681
2024-Apr-15
18.4 LD
14.2
589
439437
2024-Apr-15
8.5 LD
16.5
609
2023 HU3
2024-Apr-18
15.9 LD
19.1
35
2021 JW2
2024-Apr-19
1.6 LD
5.1
11
2017 SA20
2024-Apr-19
3.8 LD
6.2
8
2021 VH2
2024-Apr-25
9.3 LD
2.7
6
2021 GD3
2024-Apr-30
11.4 LD
3.5
14
2022 TN1
2024-Apr-30
18.6 LD
17.7
295
2022 AA5
2024-May-02
12 LD
8.9
67
2021 JG9
2024-May-10
16.9 LD
16.1
32
2016 FT14
2024-May-10
19.9 LD
5.9
39
2015 KJ19
2024-May-14
15.8 LD
23.1
112
2014 WF6
2024-May-14
7.2 LD
18.9
47
2021 JN10
2024-May-14
17.5 LD
13.2
33
2021 JJ
2024-May-15
17.2 LD
5.8
28
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Starlink Satellite Statistics
  current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page
The Aerospace Corporation
  Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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