Solar wind
speed: 390.3 km/sec
density: 8.18 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0135 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5 2112 UT Oct17
24-hr: M2 0505 UT Oct17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0140 UT
Daily Sun: 17 Oct 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
New sunspot 3856 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 135
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 17 Oct 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 17 Oct 2024

Thermosphere Climate Index
 today: 33.01x1010 W Hot
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 16 Oct 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 168 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 17 Oct 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -8.3% Low
48-hr change: +2.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 17 Oct 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2.00 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3.00 quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.07 nT
Bz: 6.68 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0135 UT
Coronal Holes: 17 Oct 24

A stream of solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could graze Earth on Oct. 18-19. Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Oct. 14, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is much too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The northern season for NLCs is underway--but not for long. The first clouds were detected inside the Arctic Circle on May 25, 2024, by the NOAA 21 satellite. After peaking in July, the clouds are now in rapid decline. This is typical for the month of August, which usually brings the end of NLC season in the northern hemisphere.

noctilucent clouds
Updated: Aug. 28, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). In the daily map, above, each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2024 Oct 17 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
60 %
60 %
CLASS X
10 %
10 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2024 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
30 %
30 %
MINOR
05 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
30 %
30 %
SEVERE
40 %
40 %
 
Friday, Oct. 18, 2024
What's up in space
       
 

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

 

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: New sunspot 3856 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Oct. 17th. The sunspot is directly facing Earth, so any flares will be geoeffective. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

ACTIVITY IN THE CORE OF COMET TSUCHINSHAN-ATLAS: Now that Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is climbing higher in the evening sky, astronomers are taking a closer look at its core. There's a lot happening in there. Maximilian Teodorescu sends this close-up from Calugareni, Romania:

"Some very nice details resulted from my Oct. 16th imaging session, including jets around the nucleus of Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS," says Teodorescu. "To reveal these structures I processed and stacked 350 images using the Larson-Sekanina algorithm."

Nick James of the Bristish Astronomical Association has looked at Teodorescu's images and says "they look realistic. The parabolic hoods, in particular, are characteristic of active comets. I have seen similar structures in my own images of the comet on Oct. 14th."

With plumes of dust and gas actively flowing into the comet's atmosphere, it should remain a good target for astrophotographers for many nights to come even as the comet recedes from Earth. Stay tuned!

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

COMET TSUCHINSHAN-ATLAS AND THE NORTHERN LIGHTS: Twilight, moonlight, Northern Lights and a comet. Wioleta Gorecka saw them all last night in Hvalfjörður, Iceland:

"The season for Northern Lights has begun here in Iceland, so it was only a matter of time before I caught auroras alongside Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS," says Gorecka. "I really like to see how beautiful they look side by side."

Update: Naked-eye observations of the comet aren't as easy as they were a few nights ago. This is caused by two factors: Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is starting to dim as it moves further from Earth, and, on top of that, it has to compete with full Moonlight. Nevertheless, observers say the comet is still an easy target for binoculars and smartphones. Point your phone toward the west after sunset and take a 10 second exposure in Night Mode. You might be surprised at what you catch.

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE NEW MOONCAT: On Oct. 11th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon into a severe geomagnetic storm. Their mission: To discover the storm's effect on atmospheric radiation. The New Mooncat went along for the ride.

You can have it for $199.95. Wrapped around a circular stone of polished black onyx, the golden cat floated through the stratosphere for almost 3 hours while radiation sensors in the payload measured the storm. The pendant comes with a greeting card showing the cat in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back.

The students of Earth to Sky Calculus are selling space jewelry to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Don't wait for Christmas--get yours now!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On 0ct 16, 2024, the network reported 19 fireballs.
(15 sporadics, 2 southern Taurids, 1 epsilon Geminid, 1 Orionid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On October 18, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
363027
2024-Oct-12
9.3 LD
16.6
431
2024 TU2
2024-Oct-12
16.2 LD
5.1
15
2024 TB7
2024-Oct-12
1.3 LD
8
5
2024 TK11
2024-Oct-12
1.6 LD
13.1
8
2020 GE1
2024-Oct-12
20.1 LD
4.3
14
2024 TC2
2024-Oct-12
6.4 LD
7.8
17
2022 UX1
2024-Oct-12
19.9 LD
9.9
9
2024 TN20
2024-Oct-12
2 LD
9.5
14
2008 UU95
2024-Oct-12
13.5 LD
15.6
66
2024 TK21
2024-Oct-12
1.1 LD
9.4
31
2024 TW11
2024-Oct-12
5.2 LD
18.8
19
2024 TO5
2024-Oct-12
17.5 LD
11.7
20
2024 TM2
2024-Oct-12
3.6 LD
5.7
8
2024 TX5
2024-Oct-13
11.9 LD
6.5
18
2024 TA7
2024-Oct-13
1.4 LD
8.6
13
2024 SM4
2024-Oct-13
18.9 LD
13.8
56
2021 TK11
2024-Oct-14
8 LD
10.6
7
2024 TH3
2024-Oct-14
12 LD
7
17
2024 TA12
2024-Oct-14
0.8 LD
6
5
2024 TM20
2024-Oct-15
0.3 LD
18.2
14
2024 TO4
2024-Oct-15
4.6 LD
6.1
14
2024 TX11
2024-Oct-15
7.3 LD
6
17
2024 TO9
2024-Oct-15
8.7 LD
8.3
17
2022 TB41
2024-Oct-15
10 LD
6
4
2024 UA
2024-Oct-15
4.1 LD
5.2
16
2024 SD2
2024-Oct-17
10.1 LD
6.1
26
2019 UH14
2024-Oct-17
8 LD
10.3
62
2024 TC15
2024-Oct-17
4.8 LD
9.2
15
2024 RV50
2024-Oct-18
19.4 LD
15.6
227
2024 TY21
2024-Oct-19
3.5 LD
15.5
13
2024 SH1
2024-Oct-20
6.4 LD
2.7
15
2024 SE4
2024-Oct-22
6.9 LD
2.2
10
2015 HM1
2024-Oct-24
14.4 LD
10.9
32
2024 TP17
2024-Oct-24
12.1 LD
5.8
54
363305
2024-Oct-24
11.8 LD
4.9
186
2024 TR6
2024-Oct-24
14.8 LD
15.2
48
2021 UE2
2024-Oct-24
13.6 LD
7.1
40
2023 TG14
2024-Oct-24
6.6 LD
6.9
24
2024 TB2
2024-Oct-26
3.1 LD
2.9
35
2007 UT3
2024-Oct-26
17.7 LD
10.4
23
2016 BF1
2024-Oct-27
10.4 LD
9.2
30
2024 SE26
2024-Oct-28
9.8 LD
12.6
106
2020 WG
2024-Oct-28
8.7 LD
9.4
160
2024 SU13
2024-Oct-29
10.9 LD
6
32
2021 CV1
2024-Oct-30
14.4 LD
23.6
38
2023 KX3
2024-Oct-31
18.8 LD
2.4
25
2022 UD21
2024-Oct-31
11.4 LD
11.8
27
2016 VA
2024-Nov-01
1.5 LD
21.2
11
2024 TX13
2024-Nov-03
1.9 LD
7.6
42
2023 VS
2024-Nov-04
15.2 LD
4.3
4
2022 JM
2024-Nov-06
19.7 LD
6.2
6
2019 WB7
2024-Nov-11
17.3 LD
5.7
43
2020 UL3
2024-Nov-12
4.1 LD
10.5
80
2020 AB2
2024-Nov-13
18.9 LD
7.2
14
2019 VU5
2024-Nov-14
12 LD
23.3
46
2019 VL5
2024-Nov-14
9.6 LD
8.5
24
2023 WK3
2024-Nov-18
16.1 LD
14.5
272
2012 KO11
2024-Nov-20
6.2 LD
9.4
43
2020 VX4
2024-Nov-20
10.5 LD
10.5
11
2009 WB105
2024-Nov-25
15.1 LD
18.9
71
2006 WB
2024-Nov-26
2.3 LD
4.2
98
2018 DC4
2024-Nov-29
18.8 LD
4.5
12
2019 JN2
2024-Nov-30
9.4 LD
7.7
25
2021 XZ
2024-Dec-02
13.2 LD
7.4
8
447755
2024-Dec-03
14.4 LD
12.2
402
2020 XR
2024-Dec-04
5.8 LD
12.3
388
2021 WA5
2024-Dec-05
9.8 LD
5.9
12
2018 XU3
2024-Dec-11
16.8 LD
10.8
28
2007 XB23
2024-Dec-11
1.2 LD
4.8
14
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Starlink Satellite Statistics
  current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics.
The Aerospace Corporation
  Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

Spaceweather.com welcomes these supporters of science communication: RV Sales and Arizona Web Design & SEO and Dentist in Phoenix, AZand Plan B Facility Services | Pest Control in Phoenix | HVAC repair in South Jersey 

To get the best views of the cosmos, check out the Phoenix Window Glass Replacement experts for all your window and glass needs
Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area.
NASA Near Earth Asteroid Home Page

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T CrB NOVA WATCH
today: m=10.4 (Oct 18)
yesterday: m=10.0
more: AAVSO data

Explanation: When the nova explodes, the visual magnitude of the star (m) will jump from +10 (invisible to the naked eye) to +2 (about as bright as the North Star).



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