 |
| |
Switch to: Europe, USA, New
Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp=
0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
explanation | more
data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.0
nT
Bz: -1.1
nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1611
UT
Coronal Holes: 13 Nov 21
Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Nov. 17. Credit: SDO/AIA
Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
|
Updated at: 2021 Nov 12 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
05
% |
05
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2021 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
10
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
01
% |
01
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
20
% |
20
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
10
% |
10
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| |
|
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Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure!
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QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is low. However, sunspot AR2894 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that could erupt this weekend. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of M-class flares during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
COMET LEONARD IS COMING: The brightest comet of the year is heading for Earth. On Dec. 12, 2021, Comet Leonard (C/2021 A1) will be just 35 million kilometers away and could be visible to the naked eye in the early morning sky. This is what it looked like last night:
Austrian astrophotographer Michael Jaeger took the picture on Nov. 11th using an 11-inch telescope. The comet was shining like a 9th magnitude star in the northern constellation Canes Venatici (the Hunting Dogs). A close up (inset) reveals a narrow jet of gas emerging from the comet's atmosphere. This is the comet's "ion tail."
During the next month, the comet's brightness will sharply increase, perhaps more than 100 fold. Most forecasters agree that Comet Leonard will reach magnitude +4, an easy target for small telescopes and visible to the naked eye from dark-sky sites during the second week of December.
Above: The blue curve traces the predicted brightness of Comet Leonard. Crosses are recent observations. Credit: Comet Observation Database
As the comet approaches the sun in early January, forward scattering of sunlight through the comet's dusty atmosphere could create an additional surge in brightness to magnitude +1. The same phenomenon worked on Comet McNaught in 2007, making it visible in broad daylight. Stay tuned for updates as Comet Leonard draws near.
Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
HUMMINGBIRD-SUNFLOWER PENDANT: This pendant has a secret compartment--and it has touched the edge of space. On Nov. 4, 2021, our Sterling Silver Hummingbird-Sunflower Pendant flew to the stratosphere on board an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloon:
You can have it for $133.95. Inscribed on the back with "Always on my mind, Forever in my heart," each pendant comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. These make great Christmas gifts.
Bonus: The pendant contains a tiny chamber, which you may fill with the ashes of a loved one or anything else you wish to keep close to your heart.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 13, 2021, the network reported 25 fireballs.
(12 sporadics, 5 Leonids, 1 northern Taurid, 1 November omega Orionid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On November 13, 2021 there were 2234 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2021 VU5 |
2021-Nov-07 |
7.7 LD |
6.9 |
11 |
| 2021 VO8 |
2021-Nov-07 |
4.9 LD |
7.4 |
14 |
| 2021 UF4 |
2021-Nov-07 |
4.1 LD |
6.3 |
14 |
| 2021 VK3 |
2021-Nov-07 |
0.2 LD |
14.4 |
3 |
| 2021 VC |
2021-Nov-07 |
10.4 LD |
7.7 |
17 |
| 2021 VD |
2021-Nov-07 |
9.1 LD |
9.4 |
25 |
| 2021 UG4 |
2021-Nov-07 |
17.3 LD |
8.9 |
25 |
| 2021 VW4 |
2021-Nov-08 |
3.7 LD |
12.9 |
15 |
| 2021 VG |
2021-Nov-08 |
13.3 LD |
7.4 |
29 |
| 2021 VB2 |
2021-Nov-08 |
1.7 LD |
8.4 |
8 |
| 2021 VL3 |
2021-Nov-08 |
0.4 LD |
6.3 |
7 |
| 2021 VN3 |
2021-Nov-08 |
0.4 LD |
9.3 |
3 |
| 2021 SP3 |
2021-Nov-08 |
15.6 LD |
9.3 |
75 |
| 2021 VT3 |
2021-Nov-08 |
9.3 LD |
10.3 |
31 |
| 2021 VM3 |
2021-Nov-08 |
0.8 LD |
11.9 |
4 |
| 2021 VR1 |
2021-Nov-08 |
1.4 LD |
3.6 |
4 |
| 2021 UB3 |
2021-Nov-08 |
9.1 LD |
5.9 |
13 |
| 2021 US5 |
2021-Nov-09 |
13.8 LD |
13.7 |
22 |
| 2021 VW2 |
2021-Nov-09 |
14.5 LD |
22.7 |
18 |
| 2019 XS |
2021-Nov-09 |
1.5 LD |
10.7 |
57 |
| 2021 VD8 |
2021-Nov-09 |
0.3 LD |
12 |
3 |
| 2021 VU2 |
2021-Nov-09 |
7.7 LD |
3.1 |
10 |
| 2021 UA12 |
2021-Nov-09 |
2.8 LD |
4.3 |
7 |
| 2021 VA6 |
2021-Nov-09 |
5.7 LD |
4.6 |
6 |
| 2021 VV2 |
2021-Nov-09 |
6.5 LD |
12.8 |
16 |
| 2021 VR2 |
2021-Nov-10 |
1.8 LD |
9.9 |
15 |
| 2017 WG14 |
2021-Nov-10 |
18.6 LD |
11.6 |
45 |
| 2021 VY8 |
2021-Nov-10 |
16.2 LD |
13.4 |
20 |
| 2021 VU4 |
2021-Nov-10 |
0.3 LD |
16.1 |
8 |
| 2021 UA5 |
2021-Nov-11 |
11.2 LD |
9.3 |
24 |
| 2021 VH2 |
2021-Nov-11 |
2.9 LD |
2.3 |
7 |
| 2021 VW6 |
2021-Nov-11 |
1.3 LD |
17 |
6 |
| 2021 VY7 |
2021-Nov-11 |
0.8 LD |
12.4 |
5 |
| 2021 UE10 |
2021-Nov-12 |
15 LD |
5 |
19 |
| 2007 VD138 |
2021-Nov-12 |
16 LD |
7.7 |
44 |
| 2021 VC7 |
2021-Nov-12 |
0.5 LD |
18.6 |
8 |
| 2021 VR5 |
2021-Nov-12 |
1 LD |
14.7 |
14 |
| 2021 VU8 |
2021-Nov-12 |
7.3 LD |
13.4 |
16 |
| 2021 UX8 |
2021-Nov-12 |
19 LD |
6.3 |
25 |
| 2021 VY4 |
2021-Nov-12 |
2.3 LD |
13.8 |
18 |
| 2004 UE |
2021-Nov-13 |
11.1 LD |
13.2 |
186 |
| 2021 UO3 |
2021-Nov-13 |
4.6 LD |
6.6 |
16 |
| 2021 VQ2 |
2021-Nov-13 |
13 LD |
7.2 |
14 |
| 2021 UM9 |
2021-Nov-13 |
4.6 LD |
11.2 |
59 |
| 2021 VJ8 |
2021-Nov-13 |
5.6 LD |
8.6 |
15 |
| 2021 VA3 |
2021-Nov-14 |
13 LD |
8.2 |
17 |
| 2021 VG3 |
2021-Nov-15 |
10.2 LD |
11.4 |
19 |
| 2016 VR |
2021-Nov-15 |
8.2 LD |
8.7 |
19 |
| 2021 VM1 |
2021-Nov-15 |
9.2 LD |
14.6 |
23 |
| 2010 VK139 |
2021-Nov-15 |
6.4 LD |
13.9 |
65 |
| 2019 VL5 |
2021-Nov-15 |
8.5 LD |
8.1 |
24 |
| 2021 VQ6 |
2021-Nov-16 |
8.5 LD |
10.4 |
26 |
| 2021 VP8 |
2021-Nov-16 |
12.3 LD |
5.5 |
21 |
| 2021 VS5 |
2021-Nov-17 |
3.6 LD |
8.5 |
19 |
| 2021 VR6 |
2021-Nov-17 |
7.6 LD |
9 |
18 |
| 2021 VC9 |
2021-Nov-19 |
7 LD |
7.3 |
15 |
| 2021 VR |
2021-Nov-19 |
15.5 LD |
13.3 |
73 |
| 2016 JG12 |
2021-Nov-20 |
14.4 LD |
7.5 |
111 |
| 2021 TR15 |
2021-Nov-20 |
11.9 LD |
7 |
42 |
| 2021 KH2 |
2021-Nov-21 |
19.3 LD |
6.5 |
31 |
| 2021 VW5 |
2021-Nov-21 |
15.6 LD |
3.4 |
17 |
| 3361 |
2021-Nov-21 |
15.1 LD |
8.1 |
504 |
| 2014 WF201 |
2021-Nov-24 |
13.2 LD |
5.5 |
27 |
| 2021 VR4 |
2021-Nov-25 |
2.1 LD |
7.8 |
17 |
| 2009 WB105 |
2021-Nov-25 |
15.1 LD |
18.9 |
71 |
| 2019 BB5 |
2021-Nov-25 |
18.8 LD |
8.3 |
16 |
| 2021 VM |
2021-Nov-27 |
9.4 LD |
8.9 |
30 |
| 1994 WR12 |
2021-Nov-29 |
16.1 LD |
8.8 |
123 |
| 2021 UP4 |
2021-Dec-04 |
13.9 LD |
8.3 |
53 |
| 2021 VX7 |
2021-Dec-06 |
14.9 LD |
6.2 |
40 |
| 4660 |
2021-Dec-11 |
10.3 LD |
6.6 |
759 |
| 2019 XQ1 |
2021-Dec-13 |
14.1 LD |
9.1 |
30 |
| 2021 VT6 |
2021-Dec-14 |
7.7 LD |
6.9 |
53 |
| 2004 YC |
2021-Dec-15 |
18.4 LD |
8.1 |
27 |
| 163899 |
2021-Dec-17 |
14.2 LD |
5.6 |
1093 |
| 2021 LX3 |
2021-Dec-18 |
19.7 LD |
6.5 |
124 |
| 2016 YY10 |
2021-Dec-21 |
11.3 LD |
9.2 |
23 |
| 2017 XQ60 |
2021-Dec-21 |
13.7 LD |
15.7 |
47 |
| 2016 TR54 |
2021-Dec-24 |
16.9 LD |
15.5 |
135 |
| 2018 AH |
2021-Dec-27 |
11.9 LD |
12.7 |
112 |
| 2017 AE3 |
2021-Dec-29 |
9.3 LD |
19.1 |
155 |
| 2014 YE15 |
2022-Jan-06 |
19.3 LD |
6.4 |
8 |
| 2020 AP1 |
2022-Jan-07 |
4.6 LD |
5.7 |
4 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on
the date of closest approach.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation:
Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time.
Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.
Technical notes:
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
Going above and beyond to provide the best homes listings in the Comox real estate market to keep you up to date and informed |
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