Solar wind
speed: 337.3 km/sec
density: 1.31 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0542 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1
1424 UT Dec13
24-hr: M2
1745 UT Dec12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1745 UT
Daily Sun: 13 Dec 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
Sunspot 3917 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Photo credit: Thomas Kunzemann of Preussisch Oldendorf Germany

more images: from Spain; from South Africa; from Florida; from Barbados;

Note: A flood at Stanford University has damaged a number of important SDO data servers. Repairs will not be completed until 2025. As a result, for the foreseeable future, Daily Sun images will be coming from readers of Spaceweather.com. Thank you, citizen scientists!

Sunspot number: 91
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 13 Dec 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 13 Dec 2024


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 25.52x1010 W Hot
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 12 Dec 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 161 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 13 Dec 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -6.9% Low
48-hr change: +1.4%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 13 Dec 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1.00 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1.67
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.80 nT
Bz: -2.79 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0542 UT
Coronal Holes: 13 Dec 24

Solar wind flowing from this minor coronal hole could graze Earth on Dec. 15th.
Credit: NOAA/GOES-16 | more data

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Dec. 13, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is cold enough for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The southern season for noctilucent clouds (NLCs) is underway!. The first clouds were detected over Antarctica on Nov. 19, 2024. Here is the current NLC map from the NOAA 21 satellite.

noctilucent clouds
Updated: Dec. 11, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). In the daily map, above, each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2024 Dec 12 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
50 %
50 %
CLASS X
05 %
05 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2024 Dec 12 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
10 %
MINOR
05 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
15 %
15 %
 
Friday, Dec. 13, 2024
What's up in space
       
 

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

 

THE GEMINID METEOR SHOWER--TONIGHT! Earth is entering a stream of debris from rock comet 3200 Phaethon, source of the annual Geminid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak on Friday night, Dec. 13th, with a dozen or so meteors per hour visible in bright moonlight. The best time to look is 2 a.m. local time (Saturday morning) when the constellation Gemini is high in the sky. [more]

SUPERFLARES ON SUN-LIKE STARS: Now we have to worry about superflares. A new study published yesterday in Science concludes that sun-like stars in the Milky Way produce superflares approximately once every 100 years. Superflares are solar flares more than ~50 times stronger than the Carrington Event. If one hit Earth, it could bring down power grids, disable satellite networks, and more.


An X1-class solar flare on the sun. A superflare could be hundreds of times stronger

Led by Valeriy Vasilyev of the Max Planck Institut in Göttingen, Germany, a team of 10 astronomers looked at brightness measurements of 56,450 sun-like stars--far more than any previous study. The data were collected by NASA's Kepler space telescope between 2009 and 2018.

"We identified 2889 superflares on 2527 sun-like stars," they wrote in the paper. "This detection rate indicates that superflares with energies >1034 erg occur roughly once per century on stars with sun-like temperature and variability."

Previous studies of sun-like stars reached very different conclusions. "Those studies found frequencies approximately two orders of magnitude lower than our measurements," the authors acknowledge. In other words, superflares would be expected only once every 1,000 to 10,000 years--a relatively safe interval.

Right: NASA's Kepler space telescope

This new study may be superior, however. Improved techniques for analyzing Kepler data allowed the team to search for flares from tens of thousands of stars excluded from previous studies. Indeed, they found 1941 superflares never before noticed in Kepler's data set.

In the Science paper, the authors compare flares according to their energy in ergs. A superflare is any flare >1034 erg. The Carrington solar flare (Sept. 1, 1859) was ~5 × 1032 erg, while the strongest flare of the Space Age (Oct. 28, 2003) registered 7 × 1032 erg.

These dates and energies tell us that Earth has *not* been hit by a superflare in the past century or so. However, that doesn't mean the study is wrong. We could simply be overdue. Or the sun may be less active than other sun-like stars.


This is the key plot from the new paper. Note how the rate of superflares from Kepler stars (orange) exceeds what is expected from an extrapolation of solar data (green). [full caption]

"If our sample of sun-like stars is representative of the sun's future behavior, it is substantially more likely to produce a superflare than was previously thought," the researchers say.

Read the original research here.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

CHRISTMAS GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.

Carried aloft by giant helium balloons, these unique gifts have flown above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out.

Don't forget to enter coupon code "BLACKCAT" at checkout for a 10% holiday discount.

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Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Dec 12, 2024, the network reported 35 fireballs.
(15 sporadics, 13 Geminids, 5 December Monocerotids, 2 sigma Hydrids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On December 13, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2024 XB3
2024-Dec-07
8.8 LD
7.3
9
2024 XS2
2024-Dec-07
0.5 LD
7.6
5
2024 XK6
2024-Dec-07
2.1 LD
3.2
3
2024 XZ15
2024-Dec-07
2.5 LD
13.3
18
2024 WG3
2024-Dec-07
18.4 LD
6.5
38
2024 XV11
2024-Dec-07
0.6 LD
9.7
5
2024 XJ3
2024-Dec-07
4.2 LD
7.6
12
2024 XE6
2024-Dec-07
3.2 LD
18.1
9
2024 WH12
2024-Dec-07
6 LD
6.9
15
2024 XL6
2024-Dec-07
14.7 LD
6.9
14
2024 XP4
2024-Dec-08
12.1 LD
12.9
26
2024 XR15
2024-Dec-08
5.7 LD
8.8
23
2024 WH11
2024-Dec-08
15.5 LD
12.2
28
2024 XP16
2024-Dec-08
0.4 LD
5.2
8
2024 XT
2024-Dec-08
7.5 LD
14.8
14
2024 UU3
2024-Dec-08
16.9 LD
4.8
41
2024 XU6
2024-Dec-08
9.7 LD
7.8
8
2024 XH3
2024-Dec-09
2.4 LD
8.5
10
2024 VE13
2024-Dec-09
18 LD
10.2
65
2024 WV51
2024-Dec-09
1.8 LD
23.5
35
2024 XG2
2024-Dec-09
8.9 LD
12
12
2024 XG10
2024-Dec-09
5.2 LD
5.9
14
2024 XP2
2024-Dec-09
16 LD
21.2
45
2024 XT16
2024-Dec-09
1.6 LD
11.9
16
2021 XB6
2024-Dec-09
5.3 LD
15.4
55
2024 WZ13
2024-Dec-10
6.9 LD
8.9
20
2024 WS17
2024-Dec-10
4.7 LD
8.3
16
2024 XL11
2024-Dec-11
3.1 LD
11
6
2024 XJ5
2024-Dec-11
19.8 LD
10.9
28
2024 XZ11
2024-Dec-11
12.3 LD
10.6
23
2018 XU3
2024-Dec-11
16.8 LD
10.8
28
2024 XK1
2024-Dec-11
4.9 LD
7.5
10
2024 WB14
2024-Dec-11
18 LD
6.5
27
2007 XB23
2024-Dec-11
2.3 LD
4.7
14
2024 XS16
2024-Dec-11
0.1 LD
18.6
3
2024 WP11
2024-Dec-12
15.6 LD
8.6
22
2024 XS
2024-Dec-12
8.3 LD
25.6
31
2024 XF9
2024-Dec-12
2 LD
6.5
9
2024 WD18
2024-Dec-13
19.9 LD
9
34
2024 XW15
2024-Dec-13
16.9 LD
11.6
66
2024 XC16
2024-Dec-13
13.8 LD
20.7
32
2024 XU9
2024-Dec-14
13.6 LD
16.3
33
2024 XB16
2024-Dec-15
5.5 LD
7.8
15
2024 XF4
2024-Dec-15
18.3 LD
14.5
62
2024 XY5
2024-Dec-16
9.2 LD
4.8
24
2024 XB6
2024-Dec-16
17.5 LD
6.6
19
2024 XV6
2024-Dec-16
17.5 LD
10.7
11
2024 XE16
2024-Dec-16
17.7 LD
3.7
48
2024 VE7
2024-Dec-16
7.3 LD
8
45
2022 YO1
2024-Dec-17
2 LD
14.3
4
2024 XR6
2024-Dec-17
15.3 LD
5.6
16
2024 XS3
2024-Dec-18
8.7 LD
10.5
27
2020 XY4
2024-Dec-19
12.8 LD
8.8
14
2024 XN15
2024-Dec-21
9.9 LD
9.7
19
2024 XQ4
2024-Dec-21
2.8 LD
13.2
16
2024 XN1
2024-Dec-24
18.9 LD
6.6
39
2017 YD2
2024-Dec-27
18 LD
9.9
6
2024 AV2
2024-Dec-31
6.7 LD
7.8
17
2024 XP10
2025-Jan-02
19.8 LD
8.4
38
2021 AO4
2025-Jan-04
6.9 LD
15.1
11
2020 BC6
2025-Jan-05
9.6 LD
22.2
248
2024 BM1
2025-Jan-08
11.5 LD
9.1
22
2024 PT5
2025-Jan-09
4.7 LD
1
12
2023 OS3
2025-Jan-09
19.9 LD
3.1
10
2012 UK171
2025-Jan-11
10.7 LD
6.4
46
2023 OS
2025-Jan-15
16.6 LD
10.9
48
2022 CE2
2025-Jan-16
11.1 LD
13.3
120
2022 OB5
2025-Jan-18
8.9 LD
1.4
6
2024 WY70
2025-Jan-18
16.5 LD
10.2
264
2022 BX6
2025-Jan-28
19.7 LD
14.3
24
2015 DJ155
2025-Jan-31
18.6 LD
9.2
56
2022 AV4
2025-Feb-03
16.8 LD
3.4
25
2018 RE3
2025-Feb-03
15.5 LD
11.1
12
2002 CC14
2025-Feb-04
8.4 LD
12.7
39
2016 CO248
2025-Feb-07
13.5 LD
5.9
11
2020 GZ2
2025-Feb-07
17.7 LD
8.9
9
2022 PK1
2025-Feb-07
15 LD
11
33
2012 PB20
2025-Feb-09
3.5 LD
4.3
37
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Starlink Satellite Statistics
  current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics.
The Aerospace Corporation
  Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

Spaceweather.com welcomes these supporters of science communication: RV Sales and Arizona Web Design & SEO and Dentist in Phoenix, AZand Commercial Cleaning Phoenix | Pest Control in PhoenixHVAC repair in South Jersey | Dental implants New Jersey | Dental Implants New Jersey

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NASA Near Earth Asteroid Home Page

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T CrB NOVA WATCH
today: m=9.9 (Dec. 13.5)
yesterday: m=10.0

more: AAVSO data

Explanation: When the nova explodes, the visual magnitude of the star (m) will jump from +10 (invisible to the naked eye) to +2 (about as bright as the North Star).



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