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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Feb 14 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
10
% |
10
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
35
% |
35
% |
MINOR |
35
% |
30
% |
SEVERE |
15
% |
10
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
05
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
75
% |
65
% |
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This is an AI Free Zone: Text created by Large Language Models is spreading across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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PLASMA BUBBLE FORECAST BREAKTHROUGH: Scientists may have found a way to predict equatorial plasma bubbles--giant voids in the ionosphere that disrupt GPS and radio signals. A new study shows that small ripples in total electron content (TEC) are reliable warning signs. When satellites detect these ripples near sunset, bubbles form within the hour about 96% of the time. This could lead to real-time forecasts of one of space weather’s most persistent navigation hazards. Read the original research.
CIR HITS EARTH, SPARKS AURORAS: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth on Valentine's Day, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and high-latitude auroras. Thomas Spence photographed the display from Schroeder, Minnesota:
"This beautiful Valentine's night display of aurora borealis appeared over Lake Superior," says Spence. "The ice on the lake was moving and shifting, creating a symphony of sound to go along with the visual display."
CIRs are a way for the sun to spark auroras without explosive solar activity. All that's required is a fast solar wind stream brushing up against a slower one. In the transition zone, shock-like structures form similar to shocks found in CMEs. Indeed, some forecasters refer to co-rotating interaction regions as "mini-CMEs." Aurora alerts: SMS Text
more images: from Elmar Junker of Äkäslompolo, Finland; from David Glaser of Gooseberry Falls, MN; from P-M Hedén of Nothamn Norrtälje, Sweden; from Geir T Birkeland Øye of Ørsta, Norway; from Jessica Fridrich of Binghamton, NY
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
SPACEX CORKSCREW: At the end of Valentine's Day, SpaceX conducted its 600th launch of a Falcon 9 rocket. Bill Golisch video recorded the milestone from Oceanside, CA:
"Twilight lit the exhaust as high altitude winds bend the trail into a loop," says Golisch. "I assembled webcam images taken every 30 seconds into this animation, which covers 20 minutes."
The rocket, launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base, carried 24 new Starlink Satellites into low Earth orbit. This brings the total number of in-orbit Starlinks (working + dead) to 9,694. Here's what that looks like.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
THE FLOATING SPACE HAMMER: No toolkit is complete without one: The Floating Space Hammer. This one drifted through the stratosphere for more than three hours during a cosmic ray research balloon flight:
You can have it for $97.95. This compact 8 oz. hammer is light enough to fly on a balloon yet dense enough to deliver a powerful blow. The magnetic head holds a nail for one-handed starting, and the stubby 6 in. length is perfect for tight work areas.
The space hammer comes with a card showing the tool floating at the top of Earth's atmosphere. The interior of the card tells the story of the flight and confirms that this gift has been to the edge of space and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Feb. 14 2026, the network reported 4 fireballs.
(4 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On February 15, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 CO1 |
2026-Feb-10 |
13.2 LD |
7.3 |
21 |
| 2026 CP2 |
2026-Feb-11 |
0.4 LD |
12.4 |
3 |
| 2019 CN2 |
2026-Feb-11 |
20 LD |
9.2 |
7 |
| 2026 CX2 |
2026-Feb-11 |
15.6 LD |
6.5 |
21 |
| 2026 CE2 |
2026-Feb-12 |
4.5 LD |
10.8 |
11 |
| 2026 BJ8 |
2026-Feb-12 |
10 LD |
11.2 |
35 |
| 2026 CW1 |
2026-Feb-12 |
3.7 LD |
18.4 |
14 |
| 2026 CV |
2026-Feb-12 |
13.8 LD |
10.3 |
23 |
| 2022 DV |
2026-Feb-12 |
15.4 LD |
5 |
18 |
| 2026 CT1 |
2026-Feb-12 |
11.2 LD |
7 |
23 |
| 2026 CA1 |
2026-Feb-13 |
6.4 LD |
8.4 |
27 |
| 2026 CK2 |
2026-Feb-13 |
10.3 LD |
5.3 |
26 |
| 2026 CF3 |
2026-Feb-14 |
3.1 LD |
7.7 |
19 |
| 1999 AO10 |
2026-Feb-14 |
10.5 LD |
2.7 |
59 |
| 162882 |
2026-Feb-14 |
17 LD |
19.2 |
626 |
| 2026 BE7 |
2026-Feb-14 |
19.5 LD |
10.2 |
56 |
| 2026 BX4 |
2026-Feb-16 |
7.7 LD |
10.5 |
223 |
| 2026 CR2 |
2026-Feb-17 |
0.4 LD |
5.6 |
3 |
| 2026 AJ17 |
2026-Feb-17 |
17.4 LD |
6.1 |
33 |
| 2026 CU |
2026-Feb-18 |
5.4 LD |
8 |
25 |
| 2026 CA2 |
2026-Feb-19 |
11 LD |
8.8 |
35 |
| 2026 BQ8 |
2026-Feb-20 |
12.2 LD |
6.3 |
66 |
| 2026 CO |
2026-Feb-20 |
4.5 LD |
7.5 |
27 |
| 2026 AH17 |
2026-Feb-20 |
11.3 LD |
7.3 |
82 |
| 2025 YU15 |
2026-Feb-21 |
15.4 LD |
9.5 |
133 |
| 2023 CM2 |
2026-Feb-21 |
4.2 LD |
11.4 |
22 |
| 2025 DQ |
2026-Feb-21 |
3 LD |
6.8 |
4 |
| 2007 DB61 |
2026-Feb-21 |
9 LD |
8.8 |
65 |
| 2026 AM4 |
2026-Feb-22 |
17.4 LD |
3.1 |
32 |
| 2026 CJ1 |
2026-Feb-23 |
13.8 LD |
7.2 |
24 |
| 2026 CW2 |
2026-Feb-23 |
14.7 LD |
8.6 |
28 |
| 2012 XF55 |
2026-Feb-23 |
16.3 LD |
4 |
98 |
| 2026 BM8 |
2026-Feb-23 |
13.3 LD |
6.4 |
34 |
| 2022 EZ6 |
2026-Feb-24 |
11.6 LD |
6.9 |
73 |
| 2018 RB1 |
2026-Feb-24 |
8.3 LD |
7.9 |
9 |
| 2026 CU1 |
2026-Feb-26 |
3.2 LD |
8.4 |
44 |
| 2011 CL50 |
2026-Feb-27 |
13.4 LD |
4.5 |
12 |
| 2020 FV4 |
2026-Feb-27 |
16.3 LD |
8.7 |
30 |
| 2007 DG8 |
2026-Feb-28 |
10 LD |
9.9 |
32 |
| 2011 EH17 |
2026-Mar-02 |
15.8 LD |
16.5 |
39 |
| 2026 CB3 |
2026-Mar-03 |
13.9 LD |
8.9 |
33 |
| 2026 CD1 |
2026-Mar-03 |
6.4 LD |
10.8 |
57 |
| 2021 ER |
2026-Mar-06 |
6.3 LD |
4 |
14 |
| 2017 BM123 |
2026-Mar-06 |
19.9 LD |
7.2 |
61 |
| 2012 DF31 |
2026-Mar-08 |
13.4 LD |
16 |
43 |
| 2020 GE |
2026-Mar-09 |
16.1 LD |
1.3 |
8 |
| 2025 EK4 |
2026-Mar-10 |
14.7 LD |
10 |
55 |
| 2021 BW1 |
2026-Mar-10 |
14.2 LD |
4.1 |
18 |
| 2026 CC3 |
2026-Mar-11 |
4.1 LD |
1.7 |
12 |
| 2023 ET2 |
2026-Mar-11 |
7.8 LD |
12.7 |
3 |
| 2025 DP3 |
2026-Mar-11 |
9.4 LD |
9.1 |
27 |
| 2007 EG |
2026-Mar-15 |
4.5 LD |
7.8 |
44 |
| 2015 VO142 |
2026-Mar-17 |
2.7 LD |
3.1 |
6 |
| 2021 FS |
2026-Mar-18 |
18.2 LD |
7.2 |
9 |
| 2010 RA91 |
2026-Mar-22 |
4.7 LD |
9.9 |
68 |
| 2022 FY |
2026-Mar-24 |
10.1 LD |
6.5 |
9 |
| 2025 SP20 |
2026-Mar-25 |
18.8 LD |
11 |
12 |
| 2025 GL |
2026-Apr-03 |
9.8 LD |
6.4 |
5 |
| 2019 FQ1 |
2026-Apr-03 |
9.6 LD |
10.1 |
13 |
| 2023 DZ2 |
2026-Apr-04 |
2.6 LD |
7.2 |
50 |
| 2021 GN6 |
2026-Apr-06 |
5.8 LD |
7 |
14 |
| 2024 TB7 |
2026-Apr-07 |
4.9 LD |
7.5 |
5 |
| 2002 TB70 |
2026-Apr-07 |
13.4 LD |
9.2 |
162 |
| 2022 GE2 |
2026-Apr-10 |
12 LD |
9.2 |
15 |
| 2023 HB4 |
2026-Apr-12 |
16.8 LD |
8.7 |
15 |
| 2013 GM3 |
2026-Apr-14 |
0.7 LD |
7.4 |
20 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
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These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! |
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©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
