 |
| |
Switch to: Europe, USA, New
Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp=
2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
explanation | more
data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.5
nT
Bz: 1.2
nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0051
UT
Coronal Holes: 02 Dec 21
Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 4-5. Credit: SDO/AIA
Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
|
Updated at: 2021 Dec 02 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
01
% |
01
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2021 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
30
% |
25
% |
MINOR |
15
% |
10
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
30
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
40
% |
35
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 3rd when a CME might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on Nov. 29th by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun's southern hemisphere (movie). According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss just as likely as a glancing blow. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
A SUDDEN DROP IN ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION: Last month, a "Cannibal CME" hit Earth, sparking a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm and auroras as far south as California and New Mexico. You might think such a storm would boost radiation in Earth's atmosphere. Think again. High-altitude balloons hurriedly launched by Earth to Sky Calculus during the storm on Nov. 3rd and 4th found just the opposite. Radiation in the stratosphere plummeted:
This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a coronal mass ejection (CME) sweeps past Earth and pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.
We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our entire dataset.
Above: This is the CME that caused the Forbush decrease
This event illustrates the yin-yang relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays. As solar activity increases, more and more CMEs billow away from the sun, pushing cosmic rays out of the inner solar system. This is one reason we expect cosmic radiation to subside in the years ahead as young Solar Cycle 25 intensifies. Click here to learn more.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.
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PHOTO-OP ALERT: Comet Leonard (described below) is about to have a close encounter with globular cluster M3, a super photo-op for astrophotographers. Closest approach: Dec. 3rd. Gregg Ruppel of New Mexico sends this preview.
COMET LEONARD APPROACHES EARTH: The brightest comet of the year is approaching Earth. On Dec. 12, 2021, Comet Leonard (C/2021 A1) will be just 35 million kilometers away and could be visible to the naked eye in the early morning sky. "Below is my first capture of Comet Leonard," reports Darrell Spangler of Estes Park, Colorado. "It was much brighter than I expected."
Spangler photographed the comet on Nov. 30th using a 2.4 inch Raptor Radian telescope and a Canon 5Ds digital camera. "It was an easy target," he says.
Right now, Comet Leonard is in the northern constellation Canes Venatici (the Hunting Dogs) shining like a fuzzy star of magnitude +7. During the 10 days, the comet's brightness will sharply increase. Most forecasters agree that Comet Leonard will reach magnitude +4, easy to see in small telescopes and visible to the naked eye from dark-sky sites during the second week of December.
Above: The blue curve traces the predicted brightness of Comet Leonard. Crosses are recent observations. Credit: Comet Observation Database
As the comet approaches the sun in early January, forward scattering of sunlight through the comet's dusty atmosphere could create an additional surge in brightness to magnitude +1. The same phenomenon worked on Comet McNaught in 2007, making it visible in broad daylight. Stay tuned for updates as Comet Leonard draws near.
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec 02, 2021, the network reported 36 fireballs.
(34 sporadics, 1 Nov. omega Orionid, 1 Geminid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On December 3, 2021 there were 2241 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2021 VM |
2021-Nov-27 |
9.4 LD |
8.9 |
30 |
| 2021 WG3 |
2021-Nov-28 |
8.4 LD |
15.6 |
17 |
| 2021 WC1 |
2021-Nov-28 |
0.5 LD |
11.7 |
7 |
| 2021 VO12 |
2021-Nov-28 |
7.3 LD |
13.5 |
52 |
| 2021 WM4 |
2021-Nov-28 |
1.4 LD |
16.2 |
10 |
| 2021 WF5 |
2021-Nov-28 |
12.3 LD |
8.5 |
14 |
| 1994 WR12 |
2021-Nov-29 |
16.1 LD |
8.8 |
123 |
| 2021 WS4 |
2021-Nov-29 |
1.3 LD |
2.4 |
3 |
| 2021 XB |
2021-Nov-29 |
2.9 LD |
17.9 |
8 |
| 2021 WY2 |
2021-Nov-29 |
2.5 LD |
27.6 |
14 |
| 2021 WU2 |
2021-Nov-30 |
8.7 LD |
6.3 |
11 |
| 2021 WK1 |
2021-Nov-30 |
2.7 LD |
8 |
20 |
| 2021 WJ1 |
2021-Nov-30 |
4.5 LD |
10.2 |
13 |
| 2021 WH2 |
2021-Nov-30 |
6.2 LD |
7.3 |
9 |
| 2021 WP2 |
2021-Dec-01 |
3.1 LD |
7.3 |
16 |
| 2021 WC4 |
2021-Dec-01 |
3.2 LD |
14.3 |
8 |
| 2021 WR4 |
2021-Dec-01 |
1.1 LD |
4.6 |
3 |
| 2021 WR |
2021-Dec-01 |
6.8 LD |
8.8 |
29 |
| 2021 WF3 |
2021-Dec-01 |
0.4 LD |
11.7 |
5 |
| 2021 WE5 |
2021-Dec-01 |
14.6 LD |
7.5 |
12 |
| 2021 WK4 |
2021-Dec-02 |
4.6 LD |
10.1 |
10 |
| 2021 WF2 |
2021-Dec-02 |
11.7 LD |
12.6 |
35 |
| 2021 WC3 |
2021-Dec-02 |
1.4 LD |
12.8 |
7 |
| 2021 WN4 |
2021-Dec-02 |
12.4 LD |
8 |
38 |
| 2021 WN2 |
2021-Dec-02 |
5.7 LD |
8.5 |
17 |
| 2021 WZ1 |
2021-Dec-03 |
2 LD |
13 |
17 |
| 2021 UP4 |
2021-Dec-04 |
13.9 LD |
8.3 |
53 |
| 2021 WZ2 |
2021-Dec-05 |
8.4 LD |
13.5 |
22 |
| 2021 XF |
2021-Dec-05 |
2.3 LD |
8.2 |
8 |
| 2021 WA5 |
2021-Dec-05 |
8.7 LD |
5.8 |
12 |
| 2021 VX7 |
2021-Dec-06 |
14.8 LD |
6.1 |
41 |
| 2021 WE1 |
2021-Dec-06 |
5.6 LD |
9 |
20 |
| 2021 WM2 |
2021-Dec-06 |
8.2 LD |
12.3 |
22 |
| 2021 WL2 |
2021-Dec-06 |
7 LD |
7.5 |
16 |
| 2021 XE |
2021-Dec-06 |
4 LD |
3.1 |
6 |
| 2021 XC |
2021-Dec-08 |
6.5 LD |
6.9 |
20 |
| 2021 WT4 |
2021-Dec-08 |
10.8 LD |
6.4 |
18 |
| 2021 WA3 |
2021-Dec-09 |
17.2 LD |
7 |
17 |
| 2021 WW3 |
2021-Dec-09 |
5.6 LD |
7.6 |
14 |
| 2021 WV1 |
2021-Dec-11 |
1.5 LD |
3 |
7 |
| 2021 XG |
2021-Dec-11 |
7.6 LD |
4.9 |
8 |
| 4660 |
2021-Dec-11 |
10.3 LD |
6.6 |
759 |
| 2021 WJ3 |
2021-Dec-11 |
9.9 LD |
5.5 |
22 |
| 2021 WQ1 |
2021-Dec-12 |
7.8 LD |
8.8 |
27 |
| 2021 WZ5 |
2021-Dec-13 |
4.6 LD |
1.9 |
5 |
| 2021 VW27 |
2021-Dec-13 |
18.7 LD |
8.4 |
40 |
| 2019 XQ1 |
2021-Dec-13 |
14.1 LD |
9.1 |
30 |
| 2021 WW2 |
2021-Dec-13 |
14.3 LD |
10.8 |
28 |
| 2021 VT6 |
2021-Dec-14 |
7.7 LD |
6.9 |
50 |
| 2021 WZ4 |
2021-Dec-14 |
5 LD |
14 |
39 |
| 2004 YC |
2021-Dec-15 |
18.4 LD |
8.1 |
27 |
| 163899 |
2021-Dec-17 |
14.2 LD |
5.6 |
1093 |
| 2021 LX3 |
2021-Dec-18 |
19.7 LD |
6.5 |
124 |
| 2016 YY10 |
2021-Dec-21 |
11.3 LD |
9.2 |
23 |
| 2017 XQ60 |
2021-Dec-21 |
13.7 LD |
15.7 |
47 |
| 2016 TR54 |
2021-Dec-24 |
16.9 LD |
15.5 |
135 |
| 2018 AH |
2021-Dec-27 |
11.9 LD |
12.7 |
112 |
| 2017 AE3 |
2021-Dec-29 |
9.3 LD |
19.1 |
155 |
| 2014 YE15 |
2022-Jan-06 |
19.3 LD |
6.4 |
8 |
| 2020 AP1 |
2022-Jan-07 |
4.6 LD |
5.7 |
4 |
| 2013 YD48 |
2022-Jan-11 |
14.6 LD |
14.8 |
107 |
| 2021 BA |
2022-Jan-18 |
9.8 LD |
9.1 |
22 |
| 7482 |
2022-Jan-18 |
5.2 LD |
19.6 |
1732 |
| 2018 PN22 |
2022-Jan-21 |
11.4 LD |
2.7 |
11 |
| 2017 XC62 |
2022-Jan-24 |
18.7 LD |
4.3 |
112 |
| 2021 BZ |
2022-Jan-27 |
17.6 LD |
14.6 |
39 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on
the date of closest approach.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2021): Our balloons have just measured a sudden drop in atmospheric radiation. It happened during the strong geomagnetic storms of Nov. 3-4, 2021. Here are the data:
This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a CME from the sun sweeps past Earth and literally pushes cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.
We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush Decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our dataset.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes, so we can sample radiation where planes fly. This plot shows how the Forbush decrease was restricted to the stratosphere; it did not affect lower levels of the atmosphere:
The dose rates shown above are expressed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) link cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
.Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
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