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Switch to: Europe, USA, New
Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp=
1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
explanation | more
data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.7
nT
Bz: 0.7
nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0925
UT
Coronal Holes: 25 Oct 21
There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA
Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
|
Updated at: 2021 Oct 24 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
10
% |
10
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2021 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
10
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
01
% |
01
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
10
% |
20
% |
|
|
|
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Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure!
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QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is low. However, the continued development of strangely magnetized sunspot AR2887 suggests that solar flares might be in the offing. NOAA forecasters say there is a 10% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
COMET 29P ERUPTS AGAIN: The British Astronomical Association (BAA) is reporting another strong outburst of Comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann. The volcanic comet suddenly brightened 10-fold on Oct. 23.75 UT when a sunlit vent opened, spewing 'cryomagma' into space. Dr. Richard Miles of the BAA provided this light curve:
Comet 29P is one of the strangest objects in the solar system. In fact, it strains the definition of "comet." 29P is a ball of ice 60 km wide (much larger than a typical comet) trapped in a planet-like orbit between Jupiter and Saturn. It appears to be festooned with ice volcanoes which erupt ~20 times a year.
A rapidfire "super-eruption" of 4 volcanoes in late September created an expanding shell of vaporized cryomagma, which astronomers have been monitoring. Yesterday's eruption propelled a new compact shell into the old larger one:
Above: Comet 29P photographed less than 12 hours after the Oct. 23rd eruption. Credit: Jean-Francois Soulier of France.
29P rotates once every ~58 days. As sunlight sweeps across its frozen surface, cryovolcanoes erupt under the high sun. "The latest eruption has taken place some 59 days after a similar event on August 25th, and may be an example of an outburst from the same cryovolcano erupting a second time on the next rotation of the nucleus," says Miles. Check Mission 29P for updates.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
VOYAGER GOLDEN RECORD ORNAMENT: This is a must-have Christmas ornament for space fans: The Voyager Golden Record. On Oct. 15th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $129.95. The 4-inch aluminum disk is imprinted with instructions intended for extraterrestrials, telling them how to play the phonographs now sailing through interstellar space onboard NASA's Voyager probes. Having touched the edge of space, it's the closest thing on Earth to an actual Golden Record.
The students are selling these unique ornaments to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the ornament in flight and extra materials decoding the markings on the disk.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Oct 24, 2021, the network reported 19 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 4 Orionids, 4 epsilon Geminids, 1 southern Taurid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On October 25, 2021 there were 2226 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2020 TH6 |
2021-Oct-19 |
7.3 LD |
5.9 |
6 |
| 2021 TX2 |
2021-Oct-19 |
9 LD |
10.7 |
33 |
| 2021 TX14 |
2021-Oct-19 |
1.3 LD |
10.6 |
17 |
| 2021 TL20 |
2021-Oct-19 |
12.4 LD |
22.5 |
67 |
| 1996 VB3 |
2021-Oct-20 |
8.8 LD |
15.3 |
135 |
| 2021 TV3 |
2021-Oct-21 |
13.2 LD |
12.6 |
47 |
| 2021 UQ |
2021-Oct-21 |
8 LD |
14 |
63 |
| 2021 TE4 |
2021-Oct-21 |
8.3 LD |
6 |
15 |
| 2021 SG2 |
2021-Oct-21 |
15.9 LD |
5.9 |
25 |
| 2021 RE10 |
2021-Oct-21 |
15.5 LD |
5.1 |
56 |
| 2021 TE1 |
2021-Oct-23 |
9.4 LD |
12.4 |
47 |
| 2017 SJ20 |
2021-Oct-25 |
18.7 LD |
15.7 |
120 |
| 2021 TO15 |
2021-Oct-25 |
7.3 LD |
12.6 |
33 |
| 2019 UW6 |
2021-Oct-26 |
8 LD |
11.1 |
17 |
| 2009 WY7 |
2021-Nov-02 |
19.2 LD |
14.7 |
54 |
| 2021 TJ14 |
2021-Nov-02 |
19 LD |
9.6 |
40 |
| 2017 TS3 |
2021-Nov-02 |
13.9 LD |
9.9 |
131 |
| 2005 VL1 |
2021-Nov-04 |
17 LD |
5.2 |
18 |
| 2020 KA |
2021-Nov-06 |
14.9 LD |
4.8 |
11 |
| 2021 SP3 |
2021-Nov-08 |
15.6 LD |
9.3 |
70 |
| 2019 XS |
2021-Nov-09 |
1.5 LD |
10.7 |
65 |
| 2017 WG14 |
2021-Nov-10 |
18.6 LD |
11.6 |
45 |
| 2007 VD138 |
2021-Nov-12 |
16 LD |
7.7 |
44 |
| 2004 UE |
2021-Nov-13 |
11.1 LD |
13.2 |
224 |
| 2016 VR |
2021-Nov-15 |
8 LD |
8.7 |
20 |
| 2010 VK139 |
2021-Nov-15 |
6.4 LD |
13.9 |
65 |
| 2019 VL5 |
2021-Nov-15 |
8.6 LD |
8 |
23 |
| 2021 TR15 |
2021-Nov-19 |
11.8 LD |
7 |
39 |
| 2016 JG12 |
2021-Nov-20 |
14.4 LD |
7.5 |
112 |
| 2021 KH2 |
2021-Nov-21 |
19.3 LD |
6.5 |
31 |
| 3361 |
2021-Nov-21 |
15.1 LD |
8.1 |
511 |
| 2014 WF201 |
2021-Nov-24 |
13.2 LD |
5.5 |
27 |
| 2009 WB105 |
2021-Nov-25 |
15.1 LD |
18.9 |
71 |
| 2019 BB5 |
2021-Nov-25 |
18.8 LD |
8.3 |
16 |
| 1994 WR12 |
2021-Nov-29 |
16.1 LD |
8.8 |
123 |
| 4660 |
2021-Dec-11 |
10.3 LD |
6.6 |
774 |
| 2019 XQ1 |
2021-Dec-13 |
14.1 LD |
9.1 |
30 |
| 2004 YC |
2021-Dec-15 |
18.4 LD |
8.1 |
27 |
| 163899 |
2021-Dec-17 |
14.2 LD |
5.6 |
1083 |
| 2021 LX3 |
2021-Dec-18 |
19.7 LD |
6.5 |
124 |
| 2016 YY10 |
2021-Dec-21 |
11.3 LD |
9.2 |
23 |
| 2017 XQ60 |
2021-Dec-21 |
13.7 LD |
15.7 |
47 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on
the date of closest approach.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation:
Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time.
Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.
Technical notes:
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
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These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! |
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©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
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