Solar wind
speed: 460.4 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1855 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 1416 UT Feb25
24-hr: B4 0637 UT Feb25
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1900 UT
Daily Sun: 25 Feb 21
Sunspot AR2804 has more than doubled in size since yesterday, increasing its potential for Earth-directed solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 33
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 25 Feb 2021

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2021 total: 31 days (55%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 25 Feb 2021

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 5.12x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 25 Feb 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux:81 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 25 Feb 2021

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +6.2% High
48-hr change: -0.9%
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 25 Feb 2021 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.8 nT
Bz: -3.8 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1855 UT
Coronal Holes: 25 Feb 21

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on March 1-2. Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds is coming to an end. Electric-blue clouds above Antarctica should disappear by the end of the month.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2021 Feb 24 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
05 %
05 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2021 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
25 %
05 %
MINOR
10 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
30 %
20 %
SEVERE
40 %
10 %
 
Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021
What's up in space
       
 

Safe aurora tours: Thinking of a visit to Norway? Marianne's Heaven on Earth Aurora Tours has a 7-seater minivan for families who don't require social distancing. See the Northern Lights or take a scenic day tour. Book here

 

SUNSPOT DOUBLES IN SIZE: Northern sunspot AR2804 has doubled in size since yesterday. It is now an easy target for backyard solar telescopes and a growing threat for Earth-directed solar flares. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

MY CAMERA'S BROKEN! NO IT'S NOT: Barbara Martens is an experienced photographer, but when she looked out across Hudson Bay early Wednesday morning, she couldn't believe her eyes. "I thought my camera was broken," says Martens. "The Moon was setting behind the Statue of Liberty, and it started to get these weird shapes."

Actually, her camera was okay; the lunar disk was genuinely distorted. Temperature inversions in the air above Hudson Bay created a multi-layered mirage, slicing and stretching the lunar disk into strange shapes. The upper edge of the Moon also displays a green rim--a classic sign of prismatic refraction in the low atmosphere.

"Although I had no clue what I was seeing, I just kept pressing the shutter," says Martens, who belongs to a group of friends who routinely photograph the Moon over landmarks in the New York City area. "Before sunrise on Feb. 24th, the Moon set beautifully over the torch and crown of the Statue of Liberty--an iconic picture. The atmospheric distortions made it doubly-worth getting up at 3 o'clock in the morning!"

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

NOT BAD FOR A 'WEAK IMPACT': Yesterday, inside the Arctic Circle, Chad Blakley and his family stood on the frozen surface of Sweden's Lake Tornetrask waiting for a CME to arrive. As predicted, it did. "Not bad for a weak impact!" says Blakely. Despite the CME's surprisingly feeble blow, a green ribbon of auroras appeared overhead:

"The auroras had to compete with a full Moon, but the show was still incredible," says Blakley. "A few members of our family got to see Northern Lights for the very first time."

Another episode of auroras is only days away. A stream of solar wind is approaching Earth, blowing faster than 500 km/s from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Estimated time of arrival: March 1st. Watch the show on Blakley's webcam, broadcasting live from inside the Arctic Circle 24/7.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THIS IS *REAL* MONEY FROM SPACE: The US Mint has just released a reverse-proof dollar coin honoring the Hubble Space Telescope. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus took it one step further, flying a whole roll of Hubble coins to the edge of space. Here they are floating 35.3 km (115,814 ft) above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:

You can have one for $39.95. The students are selling Hubble coins to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each coin comes with a greeting card showing the money in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere. Best of all, this is real money! You can actually spend it. All sales support hands-on STEM research.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Feb. 25, 2021, the network reported 11 fireballs.
(11 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On February 25, 2021 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2021 DO
2021-Feb-20
6.5 LD
8.6
16
2021 CU3
2021-Feb-20
16.1 LD
25.9
105
2021 CC2
2021-Feb-20
16.5 LD
4.4
93
2021 CR3
2021-Feb-20
19 LD
23
99
2021 DB1
2021-Feb-20
7.1 LD
16.5
20
2021 DK1
2021-Feb-21
15.8 LD
16.6
66
2021 DD1
2021-Feb-21
4.3 LD
9.5
10
2021 DA2
2021-Feb-21
0.5 LD
7.2
5
2020 BV9
2021-Feb-22
14.7 LD
7.6
26
2020 XU6
2021-Feb-22
10.7 LD
8.4
214
2021 CC5
2021-Feb-22
18.1 LD
10.4
42
2021 DX1
2021-Feb-23
10.7 LD
6.6
90
2015 EQ
2021-Feb-23
18 LD
10.5
21
2021 CH8
2021-Feb-23
13 LD
9.7
38
2021 DP1
2021-Feb-24
4.7 LD
9.5
23
2021 DE
2021-Feb-27
4.2 LD
26.1
51
2021 DM
2021-Feb-28
12.8 LD
10.2
21
2011 DW
2021-Mar-01
14.1 LD
13.6
95
2011 EH17
2021-Mar-02
9.6 LD
16.8
43
1999 RM45
2021-Mar-02
7.7 LD
20
408
2016 DV1
2021-Mar-03
2.1 LD
18.3
39
2020 SP
2021-Mar-03
18.4 LD
3.9
13
2021 DE1
2021-Mar-03
4.4 LD
3
11
2021 DW1
2021-Mar-04
1.5 LD
5.4
33
2021 CN3
2021-Mar-05
11.2 LD
3.8
20
2021 CF8
2021-Mar-05
11.5 LD
11.8
54
2021 DL
2021-Mar-08
11.8 LD
5.8
34
535844
2021-Mar-10
14.2 LD
7.3
162
2021 CF6
2021-Mar-10
4.2 LD
8.4
62
2020 FM
2021-Mar-10
18.2 LD
13.3
56
2011 YW10
2021-Mar-12
19.8 LD
13.2
45
2021 CX8
2021-Mar-15
18.2 LD
6.6
52
2021 DT
2021-Mar-16
18.3 LD
7.3
34
231937
2021-Mar-21
5.3 LD
34.4
1024
2021 CX5
2021-Mar-27
7.7 LD
5.6
48
2020 GE
2021-Mar-27
12.7 LD
1.5
8
2019 GM1
2021-Mar-31
15.1 LD
3.9
14
2015 MB54
2021-Apr-06
13.6 LD
3.7
57
2020 GE1
2021-Apr-07
12.2 LD
4.2
14
2014 FO38
2021-Apr-07
16.8 LD
8.3
20
2020 UY1
2021-Apr-15
16 LD
8.7
22
2017 HG4
2021-Apr-16
7.6 LD
4.1
10
2020 HE5
2021-Apr-17
8.5 LD
4.3
10
2019 HQ
2021-Apr-20
14.8 LD
8.8
20
2020 HO5
2021-Apr-22
16.5 LD
3.3
7
2019 PS1
2021-Apr-23
14.5 LD
10
16
2016 QE45
2021-Apr-24
13.2 LD
15.3
162
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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If you like online casinos, check out https://thesocialcasino.co.uk/ for the latest brands

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Naming a Star for a loved one could not be easier with Star Registry. This novelty certification is a great addition to any wall and will last a lifetime. Buy a Star as a gift as a unique and thoughtful idea for all space lovers.


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