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Switch to: Europe, USA, New
Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp=
1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
explanation | more
data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.8
nT
Bz: -0.9
nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1329
UT
Coronal Holes: 04 Dec 21
Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 4-5. Credit: SDO/AIA
Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
|
Updated at: 2021 Dec 03 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
01
% |
01
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2021 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
30
% |
30
% |
MINOR |
10
% |
10
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
30
% |
30
% |
SEVERE |
40
% |
40
% |
|
|
|
 |
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SOLAR EXPLOSION MISSES EARTH: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a C4-class solar flare (Dec 4th @ 05:15 UT). The source appears to be departing sunspot AR2898. Debris from the explosion will miss Earth because of the blast site's location near the southwestern edge of the sun. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
AURORAS OVER NEW MEXICO: Exactly one month ago today, the strongest geomagnetic storm in years sent Northern Lights spilling into the southern USA. Allen Hwang photographed the display from Deming, New Mexico:
"I read on Spaceweather.com that a CME hit Earth's magnetic field," recalls Hwang. "So, just before midnight on Nov. 4th, I set up my camera for a time lapse video and went to sleep. I got up before dawn and was shocked to see that it recorded auroras."
His video captured 3 hours of action, including not only auroras but also a number of meteors, satellites, and airplanes. During the G3-class storm, auroras were also observed in California and Colorado. These may seem like strange places to experience space weather. Get used to it. Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started; many more episodes of low-latitude aurora are likely in the years ahead. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
THE COMET AND THE STAR CLUSTER: Comet Leonard (C/2021 A1) just had a close encounter with globular cluster M3. On Dec. 3rd, Austrian astrophotographer Michael Jaeger caught the comet passing over a ball of nearly a million stars:
Amateur astronomers around the world watched the extraordinary conjunction, although no one caught them quite as close together as Jaeger did.
The view is about to get even better. On Dec. 12th, Comet Leonard makes its closest approach to Earth only 35 million kilometers away. Most forecasters agree that the comet will reach magnitude +4, easy to see in small telescopes and visible to the naked eye from dark-sky sites. Point your optics here.
Realtime Comet Leonard Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.
These unique gifts have flown above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out.
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Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec 03, 2021, the network reported 51 fireballs.
(42 sporadics, 7 sigma Hydrids, 2 Nov. omega Orionids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On December 4, 2021 there were 2241 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2021 XM |
2021-Nov-28 |
1.3 LD |
8.7 |
13 |
| 2021 WG3 |
2021-Nov-28 |
8.4 LD |
15.6 |
17 |
| 2021 WC1 |
2021-Nov-28 |
0.5 LD |
11.7 |
7 |
| 2021 VO12 |
2021-Nov-28 |
7.3 LD |
13.5 |
52 |
| 2021 WM4 |
2021-Nov-28 |
1.4 LD |
16.2 |
10 |
| 2021 WF5 |
2021-Nov-28 |
12.3 LD |
8.5 |
14 |
| 2021 XE1 |
2021-Nov-29 |
6.8 LD |
14 |
56 |
| 1994 WR12 |
2021-Nov-29 |
16.1 LD |
8.8 |
123 |
| 2021 WS4 |
2021-Nov-29 |
1.3 LD |
2.4 |
3 |
| 2021 XZ |
2021-Nov-29 |
1.3 LD |
8.3 |
8 |
| 2021 XB |
2021-Nov-29 |
2.9 LD |
17.9 |
8 |
| 2021 WY2 |
2021-Nov-29 |
2.5 LD |
27.6 |
14 |
| 2021 XV |
2021-Nov-30 |
0.4 LD |
11 |
3 |
| 2021 WU2 |
2021-Nov-30 |
8.7 LD |
6.3 |
11 |
| 2021 WK1 |
2021-Nov-30 |
2.7 LD |
8 |
20 |
| 2021 WJ1 |
2021-Nov-30 |
4.5 LD |
10.2 |
13 |
| 2021 WH2 |
2021-Nov-30 |
6.2 LD |
7.3 |
9 |
| 2021 WP2 |
2021-Dec-01 |
3.1 LD |
7.3 |
16 |
| 2021 WC4 |
2021-Dec-01 |
3.2 LD |
14.3 |
8 |
| 2021 WR4 |
2021-Dec-01 |
1.1 LD |
4.6 |
3 |
| 2021 WR |
2021-Dec-01 |
6.8 LD |
8.8 |
29 |
| 2021 WF3 |
2021-Dec-01 |
0.4 LD |
11.7 |
5 |
| 2021 WE5 |
2021-Dec-01 |
14.6 LD |
7.5 |
12 |
| 2021 XL |
2021-Dec-01 |
0.5 LD |
10.4 |
6 |
| 2021 WK4 |
2021-Dec-02 |
4.6 LD |
10.1 |
10 |
| 2021 WF2 |
2021-Dec-02 |
11.7 LD |
12.6 |
35 |
| 2021 WC3 |
2021-Dec-02 |
1.4 LD |
12.8 |
7 |
| 2021 WN4 |
2021-Dec-02 |
12.4 LD |
8 |
37 |
| 2021 WN2 |
2021-Dec-02 |
5.7 LD |
8.5 |
17 |
| 2021 WZ1 |
2021-Dec-03 |
2 LD |
13 |
16 |
| 2021 XA1 |
2021-Dec-04 |
13.8 LD |
8.1 |
16 |
| 2021 XF1 |
2021-Dec-04 |
0.8 LD |
7.8 |
4 |
| 2021 UP4 |
2021-Dec-04 |
13.9 LD |
8.3 |
53 |
| 2021 WZ2 |
2021-Dec-05 |
8.4 LD |
13.5 |
22 |
| 2021 XF |
2021-Dec-05 |
2.3 LD |
8.2 |
8 |
| 2021 XU |
2021-Dec-05 |
16.6 LD |
17.8 |
31 |
| 2021 WA5 |
2021-Dec-05 |
8.7 LD |
5.8 |
12 |
| 2021 VX7 |
2021-Dec-06 |
14.8 LD |
6.1 |
41 |
| 2021 WE1 |
2021-Dec-06 |
5.6 LD |
9 |
20 |
| 2021 WM2 |
2021-Dec-06 |
8.2 LD |
12.3 |
22 |
| 2021 WL2 |
2021-Dec-06 |
7 LD |
7.5 |
15 |
| 2021 XE |
2021-Dec-06 |
4 LD |
3.1 |
6 |
| 2021 XC |
2021-Dec-08 |
6.5 LD |
6.9 |
20 |
| 2021 WT4 |
2021-Dec-08 |
10.8 LD |
6.4 |
16 |
| 2021 WA3 |
2021-Dec-09 |
17.2 LD |
7 |
17 |
| 2021 WW3 |
2021-Dec-09 |
5.6 LD |
7.6 |
14 |
| 2021 WV1 |
2021-Dec-11 |
1.5 LD |
3 |
7 |
| 2021 XG |
2021-Dec-11 |
7.6 LD |
4.9 |
8 |
| 4660 |
2021-Dec-11 |
10.3 LD |
6.6 |
759 |
| 2021 WJ3 |
2021-Dec-11 |
9.9 LD |
5.5 |
23 |
| 2021 WQ1 |
2021-Dec-12 |
7.8 LD |
8.8 |
27 |
| 2021 WZ5 |
2021-Dec-13 |
4.6 LD |
1.9 |
5 |
| 2021 VW27 |
2021-Dec-13 |
18.7 LD |
8.4 |
40 |
| 2019 XQ1 |
2021-Dec-13 |
14.1 LD |
9.1 |
30 |
| 2021 WW2 |
2021-Dec-13 |
14.2 LD |
10.8 |
28 |
| 2021 VT6 |
2021-Dec-14 |
7.7 LD |
6.9 |
50 |
| 2021 WZ4 |
2021-Dec-14 |
5 LD |
14 |
39 |
| 2004 YC |
2021-Dec-15 |
18.4 LD |
8.1 |
27 |
| 163899 |
2021-Dec-17 |
14.2 LD |
5.6 |
1093 |
| 2021 LX3 |
2021-Dec-18 |
19.7 LD |
6.5 |
124 |
| 2016 YY10 |
2021-Dec-21 |
11.3 LD |
9.2 |
23 |
| 2017 XQ60 |
2021-Dec-21 |
13.7 LD |
15.7 |
47 |
| 2016 TR54 |
2021-Dec-24 |
16.9 LD |
15.5 |
135 |
| 2018 AH |
2021-Dec-27 |
11.9 LD |
12.7 |
112 |
| 2017 AE3 |
2021-Dec-29 |
9.3 LD |
19.1 |
155 |
| 2014 YE15 |
2022-Jan-06 |
19.3 LD |
6.4 |
8 |
| 2020 AP1 |
2022-Jan-07 |
4.6 LD |
5.7 |
4 |
| 2013 YD48 |
2022-Jan-11 |
14.6 LD |
14.8 |
107 |
| 2021 BA |
2022-Jan-18 |
9.8 LD |
9.1 |
22 |
| 7482 |
2022-Jan-18 |
5.2 LD |
19.6 |
1732 |
| 2018 PN22 |
2022-Jan-21 |
11.4 LD |
2.7 |
11 |
| 2017 XC62 |
2022-Jan-24 |
18.7 LD |
4.3 |
112 |
| 2021 BZ |
2022-Jan-27 |
17.6 LD |
14.6 |
39 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on
the date of closest approach.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2021): Our balloons have just measured a sudden drop in atmospheric radiation. It happened during the strong geomagnetic storms of Nov. 3-4, 2021. Here are the data:
This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a CME from the sun sweeps past Earth and literally pushes cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.
We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush Decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our dataset.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes, so we can sample radiation where planes fly. This plot shows how the Forbush decrease was restricted to the stratosphere; it did not affect lower levels of the atmosphere:
The dose rates shown above are expressed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) link cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
.Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
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