SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Solar wind
speed: 401.2 km/sec
density: 0.44 protons/cm³
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1202 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 0825 UT Oct05
24-hr: M1 0825 UT Oct05
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1205 UT

Daily Sun: 05 Oct 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

The solar disk is peppered with sunspots. Three of them (3842, 3843, 3848) have delta-class magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong M-class or X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 180
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 05 Oct 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 05 Oct 2024

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 33.24x10¹⁰ W Hot
Max: 49.4x10¹⁰ W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x10¹⁰ W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 04 Oct 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 291 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 05 Oct 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -6.6% Low
48-hr change: -0.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 05 Oct 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2.00 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3.33 quiet
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
B_total: 5.34 nT
B_z: -1.68 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1202 UT

Coronal Holes: 05 Oct 24

There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Oct. 05, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is much too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The northern season for NLCs is underway--but not for long. The first clouds were detected inside the Arctic Circle on May 25, 2024, by the NOAA 21 satellite. After peaking in July, the clouds are now in rapid decline. This is typical for the month of August, which usually brings the end of NLC season in the northern hemisphere.

Updated: Aug. 28, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). In the daily map, above, each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2024 Oct 04 2200 UTC

FLARE	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
CLASS M	75 %	75 %
CLASS X	35 %	35 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm

Updated at: 2024 Oct 04 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes

	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
ACTIVE	15 %	15 %
MINOR	35 %	35 %
SEVERE	50 %	50 %

High latitudes

	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
ACTIVE	01 %	01 %
MINOR	10 %	10 %
SEVERE	85 %	85 %


		Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024
	What's up in space	Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

CHANCE OF MORE X-FLARES TODAY: The solar disk is filled with big sunspots. Three of them (3842, 3843, 3848) have unstable 'delta-class' magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chence of M-class flares and a 35% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: SMS Tex t

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS THIS WEEKEND: This week, two powerful X-class solar flares (X7.1 and X9.1) and a series of lesser M-flares hurled CMEs toward Earth. A NOAA model shows three of them hitting or grazing our planet between Oct. 4th and 7th:

Click to view the animated NOAA model

The most potent CME (#2 in the graphic above) is expected to arrive during the late hours of Oct. 5th (UTC). This could spark a strong strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes. For observers in the USA, this means the night of Oct. 5-6.

The other two CMEs (#1 and #3) are less potent. By themselves they might not cause much of a storm. At this time of year, however, even weak CMEs can be effective due to the autumnal Russell-McPherron effect. The collective effect all three CMEs could therefore cause strong storms throughout the forecast interval. CME impact alerts: SMS Tex t

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

A 'NIGHT LIGHT' FROM THE STRATOSPHERE: Looking for an out-of-this-world gift? Consider the Full Moon Night Light. On Jan. 4th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew the glowing globe to the stratosphere on board a cosmic ray research balloon:

You can have it for $149.95. The surface of the sphere is a 3D-printed topo-map of the Moon, tracing every major crater and mountain range. It is also a night light. A built-in USB-rechargeable battery provides up to 20 hours of soothing illumination.

The glowing orb comes with a greeting card showing the Moon in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. Sales support the Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray ballooning program and hands-on STEM research.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

THE SHADOW OF THE MOON: On Oct. 2nd, the Moon passed directly in front of the sun and cast its shadow on the Earth below. That shadow is circled in this GOES satellite image of the western hemisphere:

Click here to play a movie of the shadow in motion

A timelapse movie from the satellite shows the shadow racing across the South Pacific at 2,000 mph. Very few people were inside the shadow zone--less than 175,000 by some estimates. The largest group of astronomers congregated on Easter Island (Rapa Nui) where the eclipse was maximum. Browse the gallery to see some of their pictures.

Realtime Eclipse Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On 0ct 04, 2024, the network reported 11 fireballs.
(9 sporadics, 2 Southern Taurids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On October 5, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:

Asteroid	Date(UT)	Miss Distance	Velocity (km/s)	Diameter (m)
2024 TA	2024-Sep-29	1 LD	6	8
2024 TB	2024-Sep-29	12.1 LD	11.5	19
2024 SC3	2024-Sep-29	5.9 LD	7.4	18
2024 SU1	2024-Sep-29	4.9 LD	17.3	17
2024 SE2	2024-Sep-29	6.3 LD	8.8	14
2024 SK	2024-Sep-29	5.6 LD	4.4	10
2024 TU	2024-Sep-30	9.9 LD	11.6	31
2024 SC	2024-Sep-30	4.3 LD	17.9	96
2024 SX1	2024-Sep-30	16.4 LD	5.1	17
2024 SC6	2024-Sep-30	1.9 LD	9.6	11
2024 TG	2024-Sep-30	0.8 LD	10.8	8
2024 TT	2024-Sep-30	0.4 LD	7.4	11
2024 TX	2024-Sep-30	16.3 LD	16.3	35
2024 TJ1	2024-Oct-01	17.8 LD	7.4	35
2024 SJ1	2024-Oct-01	15.2 LD	10.6	16
2024 RN15	2024-Oct-01	8.4 LD	7.2	31
2024 RH45	2024-Oct-01	5 LD	8.2	37
2024 SH7	2024-Oct-01	8.5 LD	10.8	13
2024 TQ	2024-Oct-01	15.6 LD	7.1	29
2024 RO2	2024-Oct-02	4.2 LD	9.2	37
2024 RJ16	2024-Oct-02	18.2 LD	6.9	23
2024 SV	2024-Oct-02	20.1 LD	6.2	24
2024 SS	2024-Oct-02	5.7 LD	7.5	25
2024 SR4	2024-Oct-03	7 LD	11.6	16
2024 TE	2024-Oct-03	3.4 LD	5.8	13
2024 SD3	2024-Oct-03	3.9 LD	18.2	22
2024 TM	2024-Oct-03	12.3 LD	7.8	15
2024 SR1	2024-Oct-04	5.7 LD	5.9	12
2024 TW	2024-Oct-04	2.5 LD	10.7	6
2024 TF	2024-Oct-04	0.8 LD	6	5
2024 TJ	2024-Oct-04	3.9 LD	12.3	16
2024 SY4	2024-Oct-04	9.8 LD	4.9	9
2024 RJ32	2024-Oct-05	7.6 LD	6.6	41
2024 SL3	2024-Oct-05	8.2 LD	12.6	19
2023 GM1	2024-Oct-05	15.4 LD	5.2	13
2024 SY5	2024-Oct-05	4.3 LD	6	9
2024 SZ1	2024-Oct-05	11 LD	20.3	36
2014 VA	2024-Oct-05	18.1 LD	6.3	46
2024 SH3	2024-Oct-05	19 LD	8.2	24
2022 SU21	2024-Oct-06	17.5 LD	21.1	45
2024 TD	2024-Oct-06	9.7 LD	10.9	15
2024 SD6	2024-Oct-06	4.8 LD	6.8	11
2022 FC5	2024-Oct-06	16.2 LD	19.3	39
671076	2024-Oct-07	12.8 LD	8.6	120
2024 SU3	2024-Oct-07	5.7 LD	9.1	22
2024 TY	2024-Oct-07	1.8 LD	15.2	22
2024 SF5	2024-Oct-07	15.3 LD	4.8	37
2024 SN8	2024-Oct-08	3.2 LD	14	24
2016 JG38	2024-Oct-08	13.2 LD	12	56
2018 QE	2024-Oct-09	1.7 LD	4.4	10
2024 SM	2024-Oct-10	7.4 LD	6.7	30
363027	2024-Oct-12	9.3 LD	16.6	419
2020 GE1	2024-Oct-12	20.1 LD	4.3	14
2022 UX1	2024-Oct-12	19.9 LD	9.9	9
2008 UU95	2024-Oct-12	13.5 LD	15.6	66
2024 SM4	2024-Oct-13	18.9 LD	13.8	59
2021 TK11	2024-Oct-14	8 LD	10.6	7
2022 TB41	2024-Oct-15	10 LD	6	4
2024 SD2	2024-Oct-17	10.1 LD	6.1	27
2019 UH14	2024-Oct-17	8.3 LD	10.4	62
2024 RV50	2024-Oct-18	19.4 LD	15.6	217
2024 SH1	2024-Oct-20	6.4 LD	2.7	14
2024 SE4	2024-Oct-22	6.9 LD	2.2	10
2015 HM1	2024-Oct-24	14.4 LD	10.9	32
363305	2024-Oct-24	11.8 LD	4.9	186
2021 UE2	2024-Oct-24	13.6 LD	7.1	40
2023 TG14	2024-Oct-24	6.6 LD	6.9	24
2007 UT3	2024-Oct-26	17.7 LD	10.4	23
2020 WG	2024-Oct-28	8.7 LD	9.4	160
2021 CV1	2024-Oct-30	14.4 LD	23.6	38
2023 KX3	2024-Oct-31	18.8 LD	2.4	25
2022 UD21	2024-Oct-31	11.4 LD	11.8	27
2016 VA	2024-Nov-01	1.5 LD	21.2	11
2023 VS	2024-Nov-04	15.2 LD	4.3	4
2022 JM	2024-Nov-06	19.7 LD	6.2	6
2019 WB7	2024-Nov-11	17.3 LD	5.7	47
2020 UL3	2024-Nov-12	4.1 LD	10.5	81
2020 AB2	2024-Nov-13	18.9 LD	7.2	14
2019 VU5	2024-Nov-14	12 LD	23.3	46
2019 VL5	2024-Nov-14	9.6 LD	8.5	24
2023 WK3	2024-Nov-18	16.1 LD	14.5	272
2012 KO11	2024-Nov-20	6.2 LD	9.4	43
2020 VX4	2024-Nov-20	10.5 LD	10.5	11
2009 WB105	2024-Nov-25	15.1 LD	18.9	71
2006 WB	2024-Nov-26	2.3 LD	4.2	98
2018 DC4	2024-Nov-29	18.8 LD	4.5	12
2019 JN2	2024-Nov-30	9.4 LD	7.7	25
2021 XZ	2024-Dec-02	13.2 LD	7.4	8

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.

Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

Essential web links

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

The official U.S. government space weather bureau

Atmospheric Optics

The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.

Solar Dynamics Observatory

Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.

STEREO

3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory

Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.

SolarMonitor.org

information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary

Starlink Satellite Statistics

current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics.

The Aerospace Corporation

Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries

Daily Sunspot Summaries

from the NOAA Space Environment Center

NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts

fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.

Aurora 30 min forecast

from the NOAA Space Environment Center

Live Aurora Webcam

from Lights over Lapland

Heliophysics

the underlying science of space weather

Spaceweather.com welcomes these supporters of science communication: RV Sales and Arizona Web Design & SEO and Dentist in Phoenix, AZand Plan B Facility Services | Pest Control in Phoenix | HVAC repair in South Jersey

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NASA Near Earth Asteroid Home Page

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T CrB NOVA WATCH
today: m=10.2 (Oct 5.1)
yesterday: m=10.0
more: AAVSO data

Explanation: When the nova explodes, the visual magnitude of the star (m) will jump from +10 (invisible to the naked eye) to +2 (about as bright as the North Star).

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