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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2025 Dec 30 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
60
% |
60
% |
CLASS X |
25
% |
25
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2025 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
30
% |
45
% |
MINOR |
10
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
05
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
30
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
40
% |
70
% |
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This is an AI Free Zone: Text created by Large Language Models is spreading across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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THE NEW YEAR MIGHT BEGIN WITH GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: At least one CME will hit Earth during the opening days of 2026. NOAA forecasters believe that one or two CMEs might deliver glancing blows on Jan. 1st, followed by a direct-hit CME on Jan. 2nd or 3rd. If all of them hit, the combined effect of the CMEs could add up to a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora visibility will be mitigated by the glare from this week's full Wolf Moon. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
STRONG SOLAR FLARE AND CME: A CME is heading for Earth following today's M7-class solar flare from sunspot 4324. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash at 13:50 UTC:
First-look images from NOAA's CCOR-1 coronagraph show a halo CME heading almost directly for Earth. G2 to G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives on Jan. 2nd. Stay tuned for an improved forecast as more coronagraph data become available to improve the models. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
WHY HASN'T THE NOVA EXPLODED? In the summer of 2024, NASA announced that a star named "T Coronae Borealis" (T CrB) was about to explode. "It’ll fuel the next generation of scientists," the space agency declared. Almost two years later, "our wait continues," says amateur astronomer Eric G David, who photographed the star's location on Dec. 30th:
"T CrB is still near minimum brightness, estimated to be between +9.5 and +10.0 on the morning of Dec 30th," says David. "It remains invisible to the naked eye."
T CrB is a "recurrent nova." That means it erupts not just once, but over and over again. Its explosion in 1866 was the first nova astronomers had ever seen in detail. No one knew what caused it. Another blast in 1946 established its period (79 or 80 years) and led researchers to the modern interpretation.
T CrB is a binary star system consisting of an ancient red giant circled by a hot white dwarf. Hydrogen from the red giant spills onto the surface of the white dwarf. It takes about 80 years to accumulate a critical mass, then–BOOM–a thermonuclear explosion occurs.
So, why hasn't the nova exploded? It might be as simple as this: NASA's announcement was a little premature. 80 years after the last explosion would be 2026, which means the New Year could bring an exploding star, after all.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
COFFEE TASTES BETTER IN A CUP FROM SPACE: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Shop the Earth to Sky Store! It's filled with items that have visited the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons:
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Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec. 31 2025, the network reported 6 fireballs.
(5 sporadics, 1 December Leonis Minorid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On December 31, 2025 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2025 XP3 |
2025-Dec-26 |
13.3 LD |
13.5 |
56 |
| 2025 YS4 |
2025-Dec-26 |
9.8 LD |
20.1 |
29 |
| 2025 YP4 |
2025-Dec-26 |
14.1 LD |
7 |
17 |
| 2025 YF9 |
2025-Dec-26 |
12.9 LD |
24.1 |
25 |
| 2025 YC8 |
2025-Dec-26 |
2.6 LD |
10.5 |
7 |
| 2025 YA5 |
2025-Dec-27 |
9.9 LD |
10.6 |
22 |
| 2025 XJ4 |
2025-Dec-27 |
14.4 LD |
6.7 |
36 |
| 2025 YJ |
2025-Dec-28 |
18.7 LD |
7.4 |
19 |
| 2025 YJ9 |
2025-Dec-28 |
2 LD |
15.7 |
11 |
| 2025 YA8 |
2025-Dec-28 |
0.2 LD |
10.1 |
6 |
| 2025 YW4 |
2025-Dec-28 |
2.9 LD |
7.4 |
28 |
| 2021 AB1 |
2025-Dec-28 |
10.2 LD |
12.3 |
16 |
| 2025 YH9 |
2025-Dec-28 |
1.1 LD |
12.4 |
18 |
| 2025 YM9 |
2025-Dec-29 |
1.1 LD |
6.8 |
6 |
| 2025 YK6 |
2025-Dec-29 |
13.6 LD |
15.6 |
23 |
| 2025 YH6 |
2025-Dec-30 |
5.3 LD |
9 |
69 |
| 2025 YZ4 |
2025-Dec-30 |
7.8 LD |
9.8 |
39 |
| 2025 YQ5 |
2025-Dec-30 |
14.3 LD |
18.4 |
46 |
| 2019 AU |
2025-Dec-30 |
19.3 LD |
2.8 |
16 |
| 2025 YU5 |
2025-Dec-30 |
5.7 LD |
7.6 |
14 |
| 2025 YG9 |
2025-Dec-30 |
2.2 LD |
8.3 |
8 |
| 2024 AV2 |
2025-Dec-30 |
17.9 LD |
7 |
17 |
| 2025 YL4 |
2026-Jan-01 |
3.8 LD |
9.8 |
16 |
| 2025 XC7 |
2026-Jan-01 |
8.9 LD |
6.6 |
30 |
| 2025 YZ |
2026-Jan-02 |
14.1 LD |
6.7 |
29 |
| 2025 YT2 |
2026-Jan-02 |
14.9 LD |
5.5 |
10 |
| 2025 YV6 |
2026-Jan-03 |
4.4 LD |
5.7 |
12 |
| 2025 YF3 |
2026-Jan-03 |
15.4 LD |
7 |
35 |
| 2025 YF4 |
2026-Jan-03 |
12.6 LD |
7.3 |
22 |
| 2025 YN7 |
2026-Jan-04 |
6.6 LD |
8.2 |
19 |
| 2025 YA4 |
2026-Jan-04 |
13.1 LD |
15.6 |
40 |
| 2025 YQ7 |
2026-Jan-04 |
4.8 LD |
7.8 |
19 |
| 2025 YV7 |
2026-Jan-04 |
4.4 LD |
13.6 |
16 |
| 2014 AF16 |
2026-Jan-04 |
8 LD |
9.5 |
34 |
| 2025 YY3 |
2026-Jan-05 |
18 LD |
13.2 |
32 |
| 2025 YM6 |
2026-Jan-05 |
12.4 LD |
7.5 |
19 |
| 2025 YV1 |
2026-Jan-05 |
11.8 LD |
16.4 |
64 |
| 2025 XS4 |
2026-Jan-06 |
8 LD |
6.5 |
25 |
| 2025 YW7 |
2026-Jan-06 |
11.9 LD |
17.1 |
64 |
| 2023 XM15 |
2026-Jan-07 |
15.2 LD |
6.9 |
51 |
| 2025 YY8 |
2026-Jan-08 |
12.4 LD |
6.6 |
37 |
| 2025 YU6 |
2026-Jan-11 |
4.1 LD |
4.7 |
23 |
| 2025 YL |
2026-Jan-11 |
7.4 LD |
3.9 |
13 |
| 2025 YR7 |
2026-Jan-12 |
9.3 LD |
8.9 |
24 |
| 2022 GR3 |
2026-Jan-12 |
14.5 LD |
12.9 |
9 |
| 2025 XN1 |
2026-Jan-14 |
9.3 LD |
4.7 |
36 |
| 2022 OB5 |
2026-Jan-14 |
1.7 LD |
2.2 |
6 |
| 2025 BL |
2026-Jan-17 |
4.7 LD |
6.9 |
28 |
| 2004 MO3 |
2026-Jan-17 |
17 LD |
10.2 |
129 |
| 2011 AM37 |
2026-Jan-17 |
19.8 LD |
5.1 |
4 |
| 2025 YX7 |
2026-Jan-20 |
19.5 LD |
11.5 |
78 |
| 2019 LZ4 |
2026-Jan-23 |
14.2 LD |
11.6 |
45 |
| 2025 YR1 |
2026-Jan-27 |
19.5 LD |
4.1 |
30 |
| 2022 AG |
2026-Jan-29 |
13.7 LD |
5.3 |
34 |
| 2020 GE |
2026-Jan-29 |
16.2 LD |
1.2 |
8 |
| 2023 RX1 |
2026-Jan-31 |
8.8 LD |
1.2 |
3 |
| 2022 OC3 |
2026-Jan-31 |
1.3 LD |
3.8 |
8 |
| 2021 CZ5 |
2026-Feb-09 |
18.3 LD |
9.3 |
23 |
| 2025 CC |
2026-Feb-09 |
17.6 LD |
5.1 |
11 |
| 2019 CN2 |
2026-Feb-11 |
20 LD |
9.2 |
7 |
| 2022 DV |
2026-Feb-12 |
15.4 LD |
5 |
18 |
| 1999 AO10 |
2026-Feb-13 |
10.5 LD |
2.7 |
59 |
| 162882 |
2026-Feb-14 |
17 LD |
19.2 |
626 |
| 2023 CM2 |
2026-Feb-21 |
4.2 LD |
11.4 |
22 |
| 2025 DQ |
2026-Feb-21 |
3 LD |
6.8 |
4 |
| 2007 DB61 |
2026-Feb-21 |
9 LD |
8.8 |
65 |
| 2012 XF55 |
2026-Feb-23 |
16.3 LD |
4 |
98 |
| 2022 EZ6 |
2026-Feb-24 |
11.6 LD |
6.9 |
73 |
| 2018 RB1 |
2026-Feb-24 |
8.3 LD |
7.9 |
9 |
| 2011 CL50 |
2026-Feb-27 |
13.4 LD |
4.5 |
12 |
| 2020 FV4 |
2026-Feb-27 |
16.3 LD |
8.7 |
30 |
| 2007 DG8 |
2026-Feb-28 |
10 LD |
9.9 |
32 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
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