 |
| |
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
|
Updated at: 2025 Nov 03 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
55
% |
55
% |
CLASS X |
10
% |
10
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2025 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
20
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
05
% |
01
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
20
% |
MINOR |
25
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
30
% |
10
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
This is an AI Free Zone: Text created by Large Language Models is spreading across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
|
|
|
GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK: Yesterday, a magnificent CME billowed away from the sun's eastern limb. A glancing blow from that CME combined with influences from an incoming solar wind stream could cause G1/G2 geomagnetic storms on Nov. 6th and 7th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
THE STRONGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE SPACE AGE: Twenty-two years ago today, the sun unleashed the strongest solar flare of the Space Age. The underlying sunspot was not facing Earth; otherwise we might have experienced a new Carrington Event. Instead, the debris flew harmlessly off the sun's western limb:
The flare's extreme ultraviolet flash. Credit: SOHO
The explosion on Nov. 4, 2003, was so intense that, at first, no one knew how strong it was. X-ray detectors onboard GOES satellites were saturated for 11 minutes. This clipped the readings at X17.4, but clearly it was stronger. Shortwave radios in North America went silent as the continent experienced a deep radio blackout--a hint at the flare's true severity.
Eventually, researchers figured it out. Our personal favorite estimate comes from this paper, which describes how Earth's ionosphere was used as a giant solar flare detector. Their answer, X45, has been confirmed by other studies.
This puts it in the same ballpark as the Carrington Event. There were no X-ray detectors in the 19th century, so researchers have to use indirect methods to guess the intensity of Carrington's flare on Sept. 1, 1859. Studies of auroras, ice cores, and magnetic disturbances suggest values near X45, although some estimates go as high as X80.
Now for the interesting part: The Nov. 4, 2003, flare occurred during the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23. Twenty-two years later, we are near the same point in Solar Cycle 25. As any good space weather forecaster will tell you, the downslopes of solar cycles are prime time for big explosions. No one knows why, but it's true.
In conclusion, don't be surprised if it happens again. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
CELTIC LOVE KNOT MOONSTONE PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Nothing says "I love you" like a moonstone from the edge of space. On Jan 27th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew this moonstone wrapped in a hand-crafted sterling silver Celtic love knot 35.1 km (115,158 feet) above Earth's surface:
You can have it for $179.95. The pendant comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus are selling space jewelry to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Get yours now!
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 03, 2025, the network reported 16 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 5 Northern Taurids, 1 chi Taurid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On November 4, 2025 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2025 UR11 |
2025-Oct-29 |
1.3 LD |
7 |
5 |
| 2025 UV7 |
2025-Oct-29 |
0.3 LD |
9.6 |
4 |
| 2025 UR14 |
2025-Oct-29 |
1.9 LD |
16.3 |
16 |
| 2025 UG11 |
2025-Oct-29 |
2.4 LD |
6 |
7 |
| 2025 UD5 |
2025-Oct-29 |
2.5 LD |
3.2 |
20 |
| 2025 UH2 |
2025-Oct-29 |
19.3 LD |
8.9 |
29 |
| 2025 UV5 |
2025-Oct-29 |
4.3 LD |
5.6 |
18 |
| 2025 VA |
2025-Oct-29 |
1.2 LD |
7.6 |
27 |
| 2025 UF9 |
2025-Oct-29 |
0.8 LD |
19.7 |
36 |
| 2025 UB12 |
2025-Oct-29 |
0.6 LD |
17.7 |
4 |
| 2025 UF5 |
2025-Oct-29 |
2 LD |
3 |
10 |
| 2025 UX7 |
2025-Oct-29 |
0.9 LD |
20 |
7 |
| 2025 UG12 |
2025-Oct-29 |
2.7 LD |
6.8 |
11 |
| 2025 UP7 |
2025-Oct-29 |
4 LD |
13.8 |
13 |
| 2025 UL2 |
2025-Oct-29 |
3.9 LD |
12.4 |
22 |
| 2025 UF12 |
2025-Oct-30 |
2.4 LD |
8.9 |
14 |
| 2025 UX18 |
2025-Oct-30 |
0.1 LD |
8.1 |
3 |
| 2025 VG |
2025-Oct-30 |
2.4 LD |
6.4 |
14 |
| 2025 UC11 |
2025-Oct-30 |
0 LD |
11.4 |
1 |
| 2025 UF4 |
2025-Oct-30 |
15.3 LD |
10.2 |
78 |
| 2025 UE9 |
2025-Oct-30 |
3.4 LD |
24.5 |
18 |
| 2025 UK9 |
2025-Oct-30 |
1.1 LD |
7.8 |
4 |
| 2025 UH7 |
2025-Oct-31 |
2.2 LD |
7.8 |
8 |
| 2025 UN9 |
2025-Oct-31 |
7.2 LD |
2.4 |
8 |
| 2025 VD |
2025-Oct-31 |
0.8 LD |
13.1 |
19 |
| 2025 VE |
2025-Nov-01 |
4.2 LD |
6.7 |
11 |
| 2025 UO7 |
2025-Nov-01 |
8 LD |
7.6 |
17 |
| 2025 UU9 |
2025-Nov-01 |
14.9 LD |
4.4 |
14 |
| 2025 TP11 |
2025-Nov-02 |
12 LD |
8.4 |
35 |
| 2005 EZ223 |
2025-Nov-03 |
15.6 LD |
12.9 |
78 |
| 2025 VB |
2025-Nov-03 |
15.9 LD |
8.6 |
35 |
| 2023 VK6 |
2025-Nov-03 |
7.6 LD |
9.6 |
15 |
| 2025 UR12 |
2025-Nov-04 |
4.5 LD |
6.2 |
8 |
| 2025 TB12 |
2025-Nov-04 |
7.3 LD |
6.3 |
19 |
| 2025 UT11 |
2025-Nov-05 |
14.3 LD |
7.7 |
13 |
| 2025 UP11 |
2025-Nov-06 |
6.5 LD |
5.1 |
8 |
| 2025 UO8 |
2025-Nov-06 |
17.9 LD |
7.2 |
33 |
| 2025 UN11 |
2025-Nov-07 |
9 LD |
6.7 |
10 |
| 2025 UL4 |
2025-Nov-07 |
16.8 LD |
8.2 |
25 |
| 2021 VQ10 |
2025-Nov-08 |
9 LD |
15 |
13 |
| 2019 UH7 |
2025-Nov-08 |
13.3 LD |
5.8 |
11 |
| 2025 UL17 |
2025-Nov-08 |
5.9 LD |
9 |
36 |
| 2018 KC |
2025-Nov-09 |
16 LD |
9.3 |
11 |
| 2017 WG14 |
2025-Nov-09 |
16.7 LD |
11.7 |
45 |
| 2020 VK4 |
2025-Nov-10 |
16.4 LD |
3.8 |
9 |
| 2012 VC26 |
2025-Nov-11 |
13.3 LD |
6.4 |
6 |
| 2025 UP9 |
2025-Nov-11 |
18.1 LD |
14 |
46 |
| 2025 US11 |
2025-Nov-14 |
12.6 LD |
8.1 |
22 |
| 2019 VL5 |
2025-Nov-14 |
14.7 LD |
9.1 |
24 |
| 2022 FG4 |
2025-Nov-17 |
18.7 LD |
22.2 |
105 |
| 3361 |
2025-Nov-19 |
14.8 LD |
9.1 |
439 |
| 2013 NJ4 |
2025-Nov-20 |
12.6 LD |
6.4 |
12 |
| 2021 WR |
2025-Nov-22 |
19.3 LD |
10 |
31 |
| 516155 |
2025-Nov-24 |
12.5 LD |
16.7 |
338 |
| 2020 WM |
2025-Nov-24 |
17.4 LD |
11.8 |
36 |
| 2019 UT6 |
2025-Nov-25 |
6.2 LD |
12.6 |
146 |
| 2018 WG2 |
2025-Nov-27 |
13.5 LD |
7.5 |
3 |
| 2007 VM184 |
2025-Dec-01 |
13.1 LD |
20 |
219 |
| 2018 WC2 |
2025-Dec-03 |
9.8 LD |
8.9 |
36 |
| 2025 UF10 |
2025-Dec-04 |
14.7 LD |
13.2 |
133 |
| 2021 JE1 |
2025-Dec-08 |
13.5 LD |
7.1 |
16 |
| 2019 XN3 |
2025-Dec-10 |
5.7 LD |
3.6 |
15 |
| 1999 SF10 |
2025-Dec-10 |
8.2 LD |
4.4 |
46 |
| 2016 YH |
2025-Dec-13 |
6.8 LD |
8.9 |
28 |
| 2025 TZ |
2025-Dec-15 |
17.8 LD |
6.2 |
53 |
| 2015 XX168 |
2025-Dec-18 |
4.7 LD |
11.6 |
27 |
| 2010 WR7 |
2025-Dec-20 |
19.5 LD |
8.3 |
71 |
| 2021 AB1 |
2025-Dec-28 |
10.2 LD |
12.3 |
16 |
| 2019 AU |
2025-Dec-30 |
19.3 LD |
2.8 |
16 |
| 2024 AV2 |
2025-Dec-30 |
17.9 LD |
7 |
17 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
| |
These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
