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A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A large hole in the sun's atmosphere is directly facing Earth and blowing a stream of solar wind in our direction. Estimated time of arrival: Feb. 1st. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the gaseous material reaches Earth. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
A WARNING FROM THE TREES: How bad can a solar storm be? Just ask a tree. Unlike human records, which go back hundreds of years, trees can remember solar storms for millennia.
Nagoya University doctoral student Fusa Miyake made the discovery in 2012 while studying rings in the stump of a 1900-year-old Japanese cedar. One ring, in particular, drew her attention. Grown in the year 774–75 AD, it contained a 12% jump in carbon-14 (14C), an isotope created by cosmic radiation. The surge was 20 times greater than ordinary fluctuations in cosmic rays. Other teams confirmed the spike in wood from Germany, Russia, the United States, Finland, and New Zealand. Whatever happened, trees all over the world experienced it.
Most researchers think it was a solar storm—an extraordinary one. Often, we point to the Carrington Event of 1859 as the worst-case scenario for solar storms. The 774-75 AD storm was at least 10 times stronger; if it happened today, it would floor modern technology. Since Miyake's initial discovery, she and others have confirmed four more examples (7176 BC, 5259 BC, 664-663 BC, 993 AD). Researchers call them "Miyake Events."
Right: The 774-775 AD carbon-14 spike. [more]
It's not clear that all Miyake Events are caused by the sun. Supernova explosions and gamma-ray bursts also produce carbon spikes. However, the evidence tilts toward solar storms. For each of the confirmed Miyake Events, researchers have found matching spikes of 10Be and/or 36Cl in ice cores. These isotopes are known to trace strong solar activity. Moreover, the 774-75 AD Miyake Event had eyewitnesses; historical reports of auroras in China and England suggest the sun was extremely active around that time.
Miyake Events have placed dendrochronologists (scientists who study tree rings) in the center of space weather research. After Miyake’s initial discovery in 2012, the international tree ring community began working together to look for evidence of solar superstorms. Their collaboration is called "the COSMIC initiative." COSMIC results published in a 2018 edition of Nature confirm that Miyake Events in 774-75 AD and 993 AD were indeed global. Trees on five continents recorded carbon spikes.
"There could be additional Miyake Events throughout the Holocene" says Irina Panyushkina, a member of the COSMIC initiative from the University of Arizona's Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research. "Finding them will be a slow and systematic process."
Above: A global map of COSMIC tree ring and ice core measurements [more]
"An important new source for annual 14C measurements are floating tree-ring records from Europe and the Great Lakes," says Panyushkina. "These are very old rings that could potentially capture 14C spikes as far back as 15,000 years. Eventually, I believe we will have a complete record of Miyake Events throughout that period."
Four more candidates for Miyake Events have recently been identified (12,350 BC, 5410 BC, 1052 C, and 1279 C). The candidate in 12,350 BC, identified from tree rings the French Alps, may be more than twice the size of any other Miyake Event. Confirmation requires checking trees on many continents and finding matching spikes of 10Be and 36Cl in ice cores.
A complete survey of Miyake Events could tell us how often solar superstorms occur and how much peril the sun presents to a technological society. Stay tuned for updates from the trees.
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HIGH TEA CUP: This is the perfect cup for high tea. 118,633 feet high, to be exact. On Jan. 24, 2025, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $134.95. The crystal glass cup is decorated with a 3D butterfly and a red rose. There's a matching teaspoon, too! This marvelous Valentine's Day gift comes with a greeting card showing the cup in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
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Every night, a network
of
NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Jan 30, 2025, the network reported 7 fireballs.
(7 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding
new
ones all the time.
On January 31, 2025 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2025 BN6 |
2025-Jan-25 |
2 LD |
8.5 |
8 |
| 2025 BK |
2025-Jan-25 |
15.4 LD |
10.4 |
53 |
| 2025 BW |
2025-Jan-25 |
10.5 LD |
6.1 |
10 |
| 2025 BP6 |
2025-Jan-26 |
0 LD |
21 |
2 |
| 2024 YY5 |
2025-Jan-26 |
12.5 LD |
2.4 |
14 |
| 2025 BM6 |
2025-Jan-27 |
2.5 LD |
6.1 |
14 |
| 2025 BH2 |
2025-Jan-27 |
18 LD |
7.1 |
34 |
| 2025 BF5 |
2025-Jan-28 |
3.4 LD |
11.3 |
12 |
| 2025 BS4 |
2025-Jan-28 |
2.1 LD |
16 |
7 |
| 2022 BX6 |
2025-Jan-28 |
19.7 LD |
14.3 |
24 |
| 2025 BS2 |
2025-Jan-29 |
9.8 LD |
9.9 |
16 |
| 2025 BY1 |
2025-Jan-29 |
6.9 LD |
7.7 |
11 |
| 2025 BJ2 |
2025-Jan-30 |
15.3 LD |
15.6 |
41 |
| 2025 BV5 |
2025-Jan-30 |
1.1 LD |
4.1 |
8 |
| 2025 BU3 |
2025-Jan-30 |
3.4 LD |
12.3 |
36 |
| 2015 DJ155 |
2025-Jan-31 |
18.6 LD |
9.2 |
56 |
| 2025 BR2 |
2025-Jan-31 |
13.5 LD |
13.8 |
22 |
| 2025 BG4 |
2025-Feb-01 |
13 LD |
17.9 |
24 |
| 2025 BU |
2025-Feb-02 |
8.8 LD |
5.1 |
17 |
| 2025 BK3 |
2025-Feb-03 |
11.1 LD |
3.5 |
10 |
| 2018 RE3 |
2025-Feb-03 |
15.5 LD |
11.1 |
12 |
| 2022 AV4 |
2025-Feb-03 |
16.9 LD |
3.4 |
25 |
| 2002 CC14 |
2025-Feb-04 |
8.4 LD |
12.7 |
39 |
| 2025 BB2 |
2025-Feb-04 |
0.8 LD |
6.5 |
28 |
| 2025 BR |
2025-Feb-04 |
12.3 LD |
6 |
18 |
| 2016 CO248 |
2025-Feb-07 |
13.5 LD |
5.9 |
11 |
| 2020 GZ2 |
2025-Feb-07 |
17.7 LD |
8.9 |
9 |
| 2022 PK1 |
2025-Feb-07 |
15 LD |
11 |
33 |
| 2012 PB20 |
2025-Feb-09 |
3.5 LD |
4.3 |
37 |
| 2004 XG |
2025-Feb-16 |
15.6 LD |
9.1 |
54 |
| 2025 BX1 |
2025-Feb-16 |
7.2 LD |
10.3 |
52 |
| 2024 UD26 |
2025-Feb-16 |
16.8 LD |
9.3 |
250 |
| 2014 CE13 |
2025-Feb-18 |
15.2 LD |
18.4 |
55 |
| 2022 DG2 |
2025-Feb-19 |
11.5 LD |
10.4 |
7 |
| 2016 AX165 |
2025-Feb-20 |
14.9 LD |
9.2 |
89 |
| 2015 BK509 |
2025-Feb-25 |
9.4 LD |
14.6 |
119 |
| 2023 RW3 |
2025-Feb-25 |
7.4 LD |
5.1 |
18 |
| 535844 |
2025-Mar-05 |
9.6 LD |
7.9 |
149 |
| 2021 EU3 |
2025-Mar-10 |
10.7 LD |
4.4 |
13 |
| 2020 FO |
2025-Mar-15 |
13.4 LD |
20.6 |
23 |
| 2021 FH1 |
2025-Mar-21 |
3.9 LD |
13.8 |
31 |
| 2014 TN17 |
2025-Mar-26 |
13.3 LD |
21.5 |
174 |
| 2020 VA4 |
2025-Mar-30 |
11.6 LD |
5.6 |
12 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
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The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
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Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
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current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
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Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
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from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
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from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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the
underlying science of space weather |
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Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
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