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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Aug 08 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
05
% |
05
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
20
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
05
% |
05
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
30
% |
20
% |
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|
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|
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This is an AI Free Zone: AI writing is everywhere -- except here. Spaceweather.com is written 100% by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. If you find a mistake, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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ANOTHER CME IS COMING (MAYBE TWO): Yesterday, two magnetic filaments erupted on the sun. Both produced CMEs, one aimed at Earth, the other off-target. A direct hit + a possible glancing blow on Aug. 12th could produce high-latitude auroras mixed with Perseid meteors. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
EXPLODING COMET MCNAUGHT: There's an exploding comet in the morning sky. Comet 220P/McNaught was a nondescript speck of 17th magnitude in late May when it suddenly multiplied in brightness 7000-fold. It was fading back toward obscurity when, on Aug. 5th, it exploded again. The second outburst (650x) propelled the comet to 7th magnitude, an easy target for binoculars and small telescopes.
This is what it looks like now:
"We observed the comet in outburst on August 8th," say photographers Gerald Rhemann and Michael Jäger, who used a 12-inch robotic telescope in Namibia. "It has a shock wave front (the leading edge of the Aug. 5th debris shell plowing outward through the older coma)."
The comet is in the constellation Cetus near the star Mu Ceti, best seen around 4 AM local time. Its expanding atmosphere is already wider than 7 arcminutes--a quarter the size of a full Moon--with a short tail pointing away from the sun.
 Some observers are comparing 220P to Comet 17P/Holmes, which famously exploded in 2007. Holmes brightened a million times, becoming a naked-eye object that you could watch expand from night to night without a telescope. "Mini-Holmes" might be a better name for 220P, although the resemblance is undeniable.
After the first outburst in May, telescopes monitoring 220P's debris found it rich in gas. Some astronomers suspect a fragment broke off the nucleus, exposing fresh ice to sunlight. If so, more explosions may be in the offing. The comet is near its minimum distance from the sun (a 1.64 AU perihelion on June 14th) and still being exposed to disruptive solar heat.
If only one more fragment falls off, you won't even need binoculars.
more images: from Ismael Civera of Villatoya, Spain; from Mike Olason of Tucson, Arizona; from Rafael Etges of Huntsville, ON Canada
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Space Weather Newsletter
CAMPO DEL CIELO METEORITE PENDANT: This meteorite came from space. We sent it back again. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon, more than 109,620 feet above the Sierra Nevada near Bishop, CA:
You can have it for $299.95. Encased in a sterling silver cage, this is a genuine iron-nickel Campo del Cielo meteorite from Argentina. It landed on Earth 4,000 to 5,000 years ago, and made the return trip on Aug. 1, 2026. This pendant comes with a Certificate of Authenticity and a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight.
The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On August 7, 2026, the network reported 23 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 10 Perseids, 2 Southern delta Aquariids, 1 alpha Capricornids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On August 9, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 PA |
2026-Aug-04 |
2.4 LD |
7.6 |
6 |
| 2026 PO |
2026-Aug-04 |
9.5 LD |
5.6 |
31 |
| 2026 PC1 |
2026-Aug-05 |
0.7 LD |
9.3 |
14 |
| 2024 RM10 |
2026-Aug-05 |
13.6 LD |
7.5 |
24 |
| 2026 PE |
2026-Aug-06 |
15.7 LD |
13.1 |
77 |
| 2026 PK |
2026-Aug-06 |
2 LD |
9.8 |
7 |
| 2026 PQ |
2026-Aug-06 |
3.1 LD |
6.2 |
7 |
| 2026 PC |
2026-Aug-06 |
4.7 LD |
6.4 |
19 |
| 2026 PZ |
2026-Aug-07 |
6.1 LD |
8.6 |
14 |
| 2026 OE1 |
2026-Aug-07 |
7.6 LD |
10.2 |
57 |
| 173561 |
2026-Aug-09 |
13.1 LD |
16.2 |
756 |
| 2026 PL1 |
2026-Aug-09 |
0.3 LD |
9.2 |
5 |
| 2019 NY2 |
2026-Aug-10 |
6.6 LD |
9.6 |
195 |
| 2026 PR |
2026-Aug-10 |
16.4 LD |
17.1 |
47 |
| 2026 PB |
2026-Aug-11 |
10.2 LD |
9.7 |
59 |
| 2026 PW |
2026-Aug-12 |
13 LD |
14.6 |
40 |
| 2026 OE4 |
2026-Aug-12 |
19.7 LD |
7 |
35 |
| 2013 QC11 |
2026-Aug-13 |
14.5 LD |
19 |
172 |
| 2026 NY |
2026-Aug-13 |
12.3 LD |
8.1 |
100 |
| 2025 AL2 |
2026-Aug-16 |
2.2 LD |
12.4 |
100 |
| 2025 DU7 |
2026-Aug-19 |
8.7 LD |
2.9 |
5 |
| 2025 FY11 |
2026-Aug-20 |
19.2 LD |
3.5 |
6 |
| 2026 PD1 |
2026-Aug-20 |
20 LD |
13.4 |
60 |
| 2026 PX |
2026-Aug-23 |
2.5 LD |
6.7 |
25 |
| 2023 RL |
2026-Aug-25 |
12.9 LD |
4.8 |
7 |
| 523609 |
2026-Aug-27 |
18.5 LD |
22.7 |
441 |
| 2025 QM9 |
2026-Aug-28 |
15.2 LD |
11.1 |
20 |
| 2026 PP |
2026-Aug-28 |
9.8 LD |
6.7 |
48 |
| 221455 |
2026-Aug-28 |
9.4 LD |
19 |
443 |
| 2017 BP31 |
2026-Aug-28 |
11.2 LD |
20.5 |
382 |
| 2007 EK |
2026-Aug-30 |
10.9 LD |
9.1 |
5 |
| 2017 RH16 |
2026-Aug-31 |
8.7 LD |
12.1 |
21 |
| 2025 CL3 |
2026-Sep-01 |
9.6 LD |
13.5 |
30 |
| 2018 RD2 |
2026-Sep-01 |
19.5 LD |
9.6 |
14 |
| 2025 QV5 |
2026-Sep-02 |
14.2 LD |
7.3 |
12 |
| 2020 YA5 |
2026-Sep-06 |
19.5 LD |
10.4 |
47 |
| 2022 RK |
2026-Sep-06 |
13.7 LD |
8.6 |
24 |
| 2024 RV12 |
2026-Sep-09 |
5.6 LD |
12.1 |
22 |
| 2026 OH3 |
2026-Sep-11 |
12.4 LD |
20.2 |
201 |
| 2025 RQ2 |
2026-Sep-11 |
17.5 LD |
12.1 |
17 |
| 2010 FX9 |
2026-Sep-14 |
9.4 LD |
11.1 |
55 |
| 2025 SC |
2026-Sep-14 |
19.2 LD |
1.9 |
3 |
| 2024 RP12 |
2026-Sep-16 |
17.9 LD |
6.6 |
51 |
| 2026 NT2 |
2026-Sep-17 |
16.1 LD |
12.5 |
279 |
| 2018 SP2 |
2026-Sep-30 |
5 LD |
14.3 |
39 |
| 2024 SH7 |
2026-Oct-04 |
10.5 LD |
10.8 |
12 |
| 2024 TD16 |
2026-Oct-07 |
14.2 LD |
11.8 |
17 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
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Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
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Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
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