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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Jan 14 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
25
% |
25
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
20
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
05
% |
01
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
25
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
25
% |
15
% |
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This is an AI Free Zone: Text created by Large Language Models is spreading across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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ISS MEDICAL EVACUATION COMPLETE: NASA’s SpaceX Crew-11 mission safely splashed down early Thursday morning in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego, concluding a five-month mission aboard the International Space Station. The four astronauts came home more than a month early because one of them has an undisclosed medical problem. If you photographed their return, please submit your photos here.
AIRPLANES MISPLACED DURING A GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A new study published in Space Weather suggests that flying during an extreme geomagnetic storm may not be a great idea. During the superstorm of May 10-13, 2024, disturbances in Earth’s ionosphere disrupted GPS tracking systems for airplanes flying over Europe. Some planes briefly appeared hundreds of kilometers from their true locations.
Researchers Erik Schmölter and Jens Berdermann of the German Aerospace Center analyzed more than 700 million ADS-B messages from 18,000 aircraft. ADS-B messages are short radio broadcasts sent by aircraft about once per second, reporting their GPS-derived positions. Air traffic controllers and nearby aircraft use them for real-time tracking. The superstorm caused significant position errors for days.
The problem was especially acute on May 11th when the sun hit Earth with an X5.8-class solar flare. Intense solar X-ray and radio emission caused direct interference with GPS signals on the sunlit side of Earth. As many as 53% of satellite-receiver links failed at latitudes south of ~50° N.
 In the map, right, red dots mark the location of 169 aircraft during the X-flare. ADS-B messages reported that these aircraft abruptly "jumped" off course during the flare. In fact, they were still flying normally
Fortunately, there were no mishaps. Aviation safety is built on layers, and ADS-B is only one of them. Conventional radar surveillance remained available around airports, and pilots retained full control of their aircraft. In most cases, they could simply look out the window and see exactly where they were. Stronger and longer storms could cause more problems, though.
Confused? So were the GPS receivers. Read the original study here.
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
VALENTINE'S CRYSTAL BEAR CRUSH: Valentine’s Day is coming. Do you have a truly far-out gift? Consider the Crystal Bear Crush. On Jan. 2nd, it flew to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $129.95. The two bears, plus heart and flower, are made of genuine high-quality K9 crystal, which shines beautifully in high-altitude sunlight. You'll also receive a unique keepsake card showing the bears at the top of Earth's atmosphere. Inside, the card tells the story of the flight and certifies that the item has been to the edge of space.
Earth to Sky Valentine's gifts have flown above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out. And, best of all, all sales support student science projects and STEM education.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Jan. 14 2026, the network reported 17 fireballs.
(17 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On January 15, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 AB |
2026-Jan-10 |
2.1 LD |
9.1 |
11 |
| 2026 AB2 |
2026-Jan-10 |
8.4 LD |
19.1 |
17 |
| 2026 AC2 |
2026-Jan-10 |
15.7 LD |
9.2 |
29 |
| 2026 AV1 |
2026-Jan-10 |
15.3 LD |
19.8 |
20 |
| 2026 AF2 |
2026-Jan-10 |
9.9 LD |
8.4 |
15 |
| 2026 AW1 |
2026-Jan-10 |
0.7 LD |
7 |
4 |
| 2026 AW |
2026-Jan-11 |
7.1 LD |
11.4 |
13 |
| 2026 AN |
2026-Jan-11 |
4 LD |
10.5 |
30 |
| 2026 AL2 |
2026-Jan-11 |
3.9 LD |
15.7 |
23 |
| 2025 YU6 |
2026-Jan-11 |
4.1 LD |
4.7 |
23 |
| 2026 AJ2 |
2026-Jan-11 |
15.8 LD |
11.5 |
26 |
| 2026 AV |
2026-Jan-11 |
5.6 LD |
5.1 |
15 |
| 2025 YL |
2026-Jan-11 |
7.5 LD |
3.9 |
13 |
| 2026 AJ |
2026-Jan-12 |
4 LD |
9.2 |
13 |
| 2025 YR7 |
2026-Jan-12 |
9.2 LD |
8.9 |
23 |
| 2022 GR3 |
2026-Jan-12 |
14.5 LD |
12.9 |
9 |
| 2026 AO |
2026-Jan-12 |
4.2 LD |
9.7 |
43 |
| 2026 AX1 |
2026-Jan-13 |
9.6 LD |
14.9 |
33 |
| 2026 AY1 |
2026-Jan-14 |
5.1 LD |
5.6 |
11 |
| 2025 XN1 |
2026-Jan-14 |
9.3 LD |
4.7 |
35 |
| 2022 OB5 |
2026-Jan-14 |
1.7 LD |
2.2 |
6 |
| 2026 AM2 |
2026-Jan-14 |
1.4 LD |
10.5 |
9 |
| 2026 AR1 |
2026-Jan-15 |
2.9 LD |
16.9 |
22 |
| 2026 AX |
2026-Jan-16 |
4.4 LD |
3.6 |
15 |
| 2018 SB2 |
2026-Jan-17 |
16.2 LD |
23.7 |
51 |
| 2025 BL |
2026-Jan-17 |
4.7 LD |
6.9 |
28 |
| 2004 MO3 |
2026-Jan-17 |
17 LD |
10.2 |
129 |
| 2026 AQ2 |
2026-Jan-17 |
6 LD |
10 |
22 |
| 2011 AM37 |
2026-Jan-17 |
19.8 LD |
5.1 |
4 |
| 2026 AS1 |
2026-Jan-18 |
8.2 LD |
7.1 |
20 |
| 2025 YX7 |
2026-Jan-20 |
19.5 LD |
11.5 |
76 |
| 2026 AK |
2026-Jan-20 |
11.5 LD |
15 |
67 |
| 2026 AL |
2026-Jan-21 |
17.1 LD |
4.9 |
36 |
| 2026 AG |
2026-Jan-21 |
10.8 LD |
9.1 |
20 |
| 2019 LZ4 |
2026-Jan-23 |
14.2 LD |
11.6 |
45 |
| 2025 YR1 |
2026-Jan-27 |
19.5 LD |
4.1 |
29 |
| 2026 AS2 |
2026-Jan-29 |
6.1 LD |
13.4 |
50 |
| 2022 AG |
2026-Jan-29 |
13.7 LD |
5.3 |
34 |
| 2020 GE |
2026-Jan-29 |
16.2 LD |
1.2 |
8 |
| 2026 AG2 |
2026-Jan-29 |
6.9 LD |
12 |
36 |
| 2023 RX1 |
2026-Jan-31 |
8.8 LD |
1.2 |
3 |
| 2025 YQ12 |
2026-Jan-31 |
12 LD |
3.1 |
28 |
| 2022 OC3 |
2026-Jan-31 |
1.3 LD |
3.8 |
8 |
| 2021 CZ5 |
2026-Feb-09 |
18.3 LD |
9.3 |
23 |
| 2025 CC |
2026-Feb-09 |
17.6 LD |
5.1 |
11 |
| 2019 CN2 |
2026-Feb-11 |
20 LD |
9.2 |
7 |
| 2022 DV |
2026-Feb-12 |
15.4 LD |
5 |
18 |
| 1999 AO10 |
2026-Feb-13 |
10.5 LD |
2.7 |
59 |
| 162882 |
2026-Feb-14 |
17 LD |
19.2 |
626 |
| 2023 CM2 |
2026-Feb-21 |
4.2 LD |
11.4 |
22 |
| 2025 DQ |
2026-Feb-21 |
3 LD |
6.8 |
4 |
| 2007 DB61 |
2026-Feb-21 |
9 LD |
8.8 |
65 |
| 2012 XF55 |
2026-Feb-23 |
16.3 LD |
4 |
98 |
| 2022 EZ6 |
2026-Feb-24 |
11.6 LD |
6.9 |
73 |
| 2018 RB1 |
2026-Feb-24 |
8.3 LD |
7.9 |
9 |
| 2011 CL50 |
2026-Feb-27 |
13.4 LD |
4.5 |
12 |
| 2020 FV4 |
2026-Feb-27 |
16.3 LD |
8.7 |
30 |
| 2007 DG8 |
2026-Feb-28 |
10 LD |
9.9 |
32 |
| 2011 EH17 |
2026-Mar-02 |
15.8 LD |
16.5 |
39 |
| 2021 ER |
2026-Mar-06 |
6.3 LD |
4 |
14 |
| 2017 BM123 |
2026-Mar-06 |
19.9 LD |
7.2 |
61 |
| 2012 DF31 |
2026-Mar-08 |
13.4 LD |
16 |
43 |
| 2020 GE |
2026-Mar-09 |
16.1 LD |
1.3 |
8 |
| 2025 EK4 |
2026-Mar-10 |
14.7 LD |
10 |
55 |
| 2021 BW1 |
2026-Mar-10 |
14.2 LD |
4.1 |
18 |
| 2023 ET2 |
2026-Mar-11 |
7.8 LD |
12.7 |
3 |
| 2025 DP3 |
2026-Mar-11 |
9.4 LD |
9.1 |
27 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
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These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! |
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©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
