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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 May 14 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
40
% |
40
% |
CLASS X |
05
% |
05
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 May 14 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
35
% |
35
% |
MINOR |
40
% |
30
% |
SEVERE |
20
% |
15
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
05
% |
05
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
75
% |
65
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
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This is an AI Free Zone: AI is everywhere -- except here. Spaceweather.com is written by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. If you find a mistake, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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YESTERDAY'S 'METHALOX COMET': Are you looking for our May 14th story about the 'Methalox Comet', caused by a Chinese rocket flying over the USA? It's right here. You can find older stories any time by selecting the date and hitting the view button in the upper right corner of our home page. Free: Space Weather Newsletter.
SUPER EL NIÑO, IS THE TERMINATOR TO BLAME? Headlines are buzzing with news that a super El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean. A solar physicist saw it coming 3 years ago.
A super El Niño like this one in 1997 is now forming in the Pacific Ocean.
In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026. He based it on the Terminator, a magnetic event on the sun that ends one solar cycle and ignites the next.
Averaging the past five solar cycles into a "standard cycle" and projecting it forward, Leamon found that El Niños follow about five years after a Terminator. The most recent termination event happened in December 2021, putting the next El Niño squarely in 2026. His model says nothing about the strength of this El Niño, but the timing is spot-on.
Leamon and his colleague Scott McIntosh had previously shown that every Terminator since the 1960s coincided with a flip from El Niño to La Niña. Their work correctly predicted the onset of a triple-dip La Niña in 2020 and revealed an unexpected connection between the sun and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation).
Adapted from Fig. 5 of Leamon (2023), this chart highlights two apparently successful predictions based on the Terminator
No one knows how the sun exerts control over the ENSO. Most researchers favor "top-down" models: Solar activity alters the top of Earth's atmosphere, making changes that percolate down to affect the weather we experience near Earth's surface. But the actual mechanism is unknown.
At first (2021), Leamon and McIntosh thought cosmic rays were responsible. Galactic cosmic rays vary with the solar cycle, and they influence the ionization of Earth's atmosphere. But later (2023) Leamon himself weighed in against cosmic rays, noting that the timing didn't work. He currently favors a correlation with geomagnetic activity.
The search for a sun-El Niño connection is as old as El Niño itself. Sir Gilbert Walker, who discovered the "Southern Oscillation" (the SO in ENSO) in the early 1900s, tried and failed to find a link to sunspots. Throughout the 20th century, other researchers likewise struggled to make the connection. The Terminator, however, is a new concept articulated by McIntosh and Leamon in a series of papers starting 10 years ago. It seems to do a good job of predicting solar cycles and may be successful with ENSO as well.
It will take more than 1 or 2 successful predictions to build confidence in this model, but it's a good start. Let the El Niño begin.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
BREWER'S YEAST FROM SPACE: Father's Day is coming soon. Dad might appreciate some far-out home brew! On Oct. 4, 2025, we flew six test tubes of brewer's yeast to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have an entire tube for $99.95. These high-flying microbes are the perfect gift for any home brewer who wants a far-out Ale or Lager. Choose from one of three varieties (American Ale, English Ale and Smooth Lager). Your order comes with a greeting card showing the yeast in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again. Bottoms up!
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On May 13, 2026, the network reported 1 fireballs.
(1 sporadic)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On May 15, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 JB |
2026-May-09 |
2.3 LD |
15 |
51 |
| 2020 GE3 |
2026-May-09 |
11.1 LD |
5.9 |
21 |
| 2026 JO |
2026-May-09 |
0.3 LD |
13.7 |
9 |
| 2026 JQ |
2026-May-09 |
5.1 LD |
14.1 |
10 |
| 2026 JU1 |
2026-May-09 |
0.7 LD |
19.3 |
6 |
| 2026 JL1 |
2026-May-09 |
5.7 LD |
7.9 |
13 |
| 2026 JZ2 |
2026-May-09 |
5.6 LD |
5.5 |
8 |
| 2026 JX1 |
2026-May-09 |
0.7 LD |
18.2 |
5 |
| 2026 JY |
2026-May-09 |
2.9 LD |
10.7 |
7 |
| 2026 JN1 |
2026-May-10 |
1.4 LD |
14.3 |
9 |
| 2026 JK1 |
2026-May-10 |
3.7 LD |
12.4 |
11 |
| 2026 JV2 |
2026-May-10 |
3 LD |
9.4 |
18 |
| 2026 JA2 |
2026-May-10 |
3.3 LD |
6.4 |
8 |
| 2026 JF2 |
2026-May-11 |
0.8 LD |
13.1 |
5 |
| 2026 JZ1 |
2026-May-11 |
8.8 LD |
16.5 |
20 |
| 2026 JW2 |
2026-May-11 |
1.2 LD |
7.8 |
5 |
| 2026 JD1 |
2026-May-11 |
0.8 LD |
14.2 |
12 |
| 2026 JH |
2026-May-11 |
4.5 LD |
8.8 |
19 |
| 2026 JG2 |
2026-May-12 |
3.3 LD |
7.6 |
14 |
| 2026 JU2 |
2026-May-12 |
5.7 LD |
16.6 |
25 |
| 2026 JR |
2026-May-12 |
7.9 LD |
7.4 |
10 |
| 2026 JJ2 |
2026-May-12 |
7.9 LD |
7.1 |
15 |
| 2026 JJ3 |
2026-May-12 |
9.4 LD |
3 |
14 |
| 2026 JA1 |
2026-May-13 |
2.5 LD |
12.6 |
13 |
| 2026 JX2 |
2026-May-13 |
0.7 LD |
13.8 |
7 |
| 2026 JT |
2026-May-14 |
17.1 LD |
9.7 |
19 |
| 2026 JV1 |
2026-May-14 |
7 LD |
9.4 |
23 |
| 2026 JH1 |
2026-May-15 |
15.5 LD |
13.4 |
31 |
| 2026 JQ3 |
2026-May-15 |
2.2 LD |
7.8 |
14 |
| 2026 JK2 |
2026-May-15 |
1.2 LD |
20.5 |
26 |
| 2026 JU |
2026-May-16 |
5.2 LD |
8.4 |
23 |
| 2023 VR5 |
2026-May-16 |
7.5 LD |
2.3 |
10 |
| 2026 JY2 |
2026-May-17 |
8.3 LD |
13.8 |
19 |
| 2026 HC5 |
2026-May-17 |
7.1 LD |
6.7 |
22 |
| 2025 KR4 |
2026-May-18 |
15.2 LD |
5.9 |
22 |
| 2026 JP3 |
2026-May-18 |
17.8 LD |
16.5 |
37 |
| 2026 JH2 |
2026-May-18 |
0.2 LD |
9.1 |
20 |
| 2026 JP1 |
2026-May-20 |
17.7 LD |
15.4 |
57 |
| 2026 JD3 |
2026-May-21 |
6.9 LD |
7.7 |
12 |
| 2026 JG1 |
2026-May-21 |
13.4 LD |
14.6 |
35 |
| 2026 JE1 |
2026-May-22 |
2.9 LD |
4.7 |
12 |
| 2026 JM |
2026-May-23 |
5.2 LD |
7.8 |
24 |
| 2023 KH4 |
2026-May-24 |
5.5 LD |
7.9 |
14 |
| 2023 KZ1 |
2026-May-24 |
9 LD |
13.4 |
20 |
| 2026 JJ |
2026-May-27 |
18.8 LD |
4.8 |
24 |
| 2026 HW2 |
2026-May-29 |
17.7 LD |
12.5 |
125 |
| 2023 BM4 |
2026-May-30 |
12.2 LD |
5.7 |
64 |
| 2026 JN |
2026-Jun-01 |
15.9 LD |
7.8 |
50 |
| 2021 KN2 |
2026-Jun-03 |
8.9 LD |
8.9 |
7 |
| 2018 GE |
2026-Jun-07 |
16.4 LD |
3.1 |
11 |
| 2016 VS |
2026-Jun-12 |
20 LD |
11.1 |
12 |
| 530520 |
2026-Jun-12 |
16.1 LD |
14.6 |
152 |
| 2003 LN6 |
2026-Jun-18 |
3.7 LD |
3.9 |
41 |
| 2025 WC4 |
2026-Jun-21 |
10.2 LD |
19.2 |
304 |
| 2015 LM24 |
2026-Jun-22 |
18.2 LD |
13.8 |
71 |
| 152637 |
2026-Jun-27 |
6.7 LD |
8.9 |
947 |
| 523808 |
2026-Jul-04 |
9.1 LD |
16.8 |
479 |
| 2023 YO1 |
2026-Jul-05 |
6.5 LD |
2.7 |
23 |
| 2007 AA2 |
2026-Jul-11 |
17.8 LD |
7.2 |
43 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
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