SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Solar wind
speed: 371.0 km/sec
density: 7.54 protons/cm³
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0906 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 1752 UT Sep11
24-hr: M2 1752 UT Sep11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2105 UT

Daily Sun: 11 Sep 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3814 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 147
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 11 Sep 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 11 Sep 2024

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 32.00x10¹⁰ W Hot
Max: 49.4x10¹⁰ W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x10¹⁰ W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 10 Sep 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 205 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 11 Sep 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -8.3% Low
48-hr change: -0.6%
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 11 Sep 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2.67 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3.00 quiet
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
B_total: 9.40 nT
B_z: -1.25 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0906 UT

Coronal Holes: 11 Sep 24

Solar wind flowing from this pair of coronal holes could brush Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 15-16. Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Sep. 09, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is much too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The northern season for NLCs is underway--but not for long. The first clouds were detected inside the Arctic Circle on May 25, 2024, by the NOAA 21 satellite. After peaking in July, the clouds are now in rapid decline. This is typical for the month of August, which usually brings the end of NLC season in the northern hemisphere.

Updated: Aug. 28, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). In the daily map, above, each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2024 Sep 10 2200 UTC

FLARE	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
CLASS M	55 %	55 %
CLASS X	15 %	15 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm

Updated at: 2024 Sep 10 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes

	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
ACTIVE	35 %	35 %
MINOR	25 %	25 %
SEVERE	05 %	05 %

High latitudes

	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
ACTIVE	10 %	10 %
MINOR	20 %	20 %
SEVERE	65 %	65 %


		Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2024
	What's up in space	Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2024

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--EXTENDED: Geomagnetic storms are possible for the next three days--especially on Sept. 13th when a full halo CME is expected to strike Earth head-on. NOAA predicts a chance of G1 storms on the Sept. 11th and 12th, followed by a G2 storm on the 13th. CME impact alerts: SMS Tex t

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE HEADING OUR WAY: This Friday's predicted CME impact might be just the beginning. Active sunspot AR3814 is crackling with solar flares and may have hurled as many as four CMEs toward Earth in the past 36 hours. This NOAA model shows the first two:

More CMEs may be added to their model as fresh coronagraph data become available. Rapid-fire CME impacts are a key ingredient for strong geomagnetic storms and, indeed, the geomagnetic storm watch may soon be elevated to category G3 (Strong) for Sept. 13th and 14th. Stay tuned. CME impact alerts: SMS Tex t

ASTRONAUTS WILL SPACEWALK WITHOUT AN AIRLOCK: SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn mission took flight Tuesday morning (Sept. 10th @ 5:23 a.m. EDT) when a Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral. Conrad Pope watched the rocket roar into space from Wilmington, North Carolina:

"I wasn’t sure it was going to launch due to weather in Florida," says Pope. "But when it did, it was spectacular!"

Polaris Dawn is funded and led by billionaire Jared Isaacman, the founder of financial firm Shift4 Payments. SpaceX engineers Anna Menon and Sarah Gillis and retired US Air Force pilot Scott Poteet round out the crew of four.

A highlight of the mission will be their attempt to perform a spacewalk without an airlock. Opening the door of the Crew Dragon capsule will expose all four crew members to the vacuum of space. Only their spacesuits will keep them safe. Also, differences in pressure may make it difficult to relock the vehicle’s hatch. It's actually a daring maneuver, and we wish the crew good luck when they try it later this week.

more images: from Randall Gacek of Fairfax, Virginia

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

"HAND OF APOLLO" STAR TREK CHRISTMAS ORNAMENT: You can't buy this on Amazon. The Hand of Apollo Christmas Ornament is only available from the Earth to Sky Store. On Aug. 15, 2024, it flew to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:

You can have it for $127.95. This ornament depicts the iconic opening scene from original Star Trek series episode "Who Mourns for Adonais?" first aired in 1967. Near the planet Pollux III, the Enterprise was held immobile by an energy field shaped as a human hand. It belonged to a being claiming to be the Greek god Apollo. This will look far out on your Christmas tree this December.

The students of Earth to Sky Calculus are selling space ornaments to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Don't wait for Christmas--get yours now!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Sep 10, 2024, the network reported 14 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 4 September epsilon Perseids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On September 11, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:

Asteroid	Date(UT)	Miss Distance	Velocity (km/s)	Diameter (m)
2024 RN11	2024-Sep-06	12.4 LD	13.1	23
2024 RL2	2024-Sep-06	2.7 LD	11	7
2024 RF	2024-Sep-06	12.4 LD	7.9	16
2024 RH3	2024-Sep-06	2.8 LD	11.2	9
2024 RC	2024-Sep-07	20 LD	1.6	11
2024 RW8	2024-Sep-07	2.5 LD	9.4	19
2024 RR3	2024-Sep-07	0.9 LD	16.6	15
2024 RH6	2024-Sep-07	0.6 LD	10.7	7
2024 RF4	2024-Sep-07	15.9 LD	12.7	29
2024 RB3	2024-Sep-07	1.8 LD	13.8	10
2024 RF10	2024-Sep-08	1.5 LD	8.9	11
2022 SR	2024-Sep-08	9.8 LD	6.4	42
2024 RU8	2024-Sep-08	12.1 LD	14.1	56
2024 RH7	2024-Sep-08	0.4 LD	13.9	4
2024 RF2	2024-Sep-08	4 LD	11.5	33
2024 RX7	2024-Sep-09	13.2 LD	12.5	22
2024 QS	2024-Sep-09	12.1 LD	9.3	42
2024 RN1	2024-Sep-09	3.6 LD	16.6	20
2024 RK8	2024-Sep-09	3.7 LD	5.5	16
2024 RE1	2024-Sep-09	9 LD	13.2	28
2023 SP2	2024-Sep-09	15.3 LD	4.2	8
2024 RJ	2024-Sep-09	5.3 LD	11.9	18
2024 PM6	2024-Sep-09	14 LD	9	53
2024 RN3	2024-Sep-09	1.8 LD	9.2	18
2024 RG7	2024-Sep-10	19.8 LD	12.5	43
2024 RJ12	2024-Sep-10	1.8 LD	5.4	10
2024 RH	2024-Sep-10	16.7 LD	11.4	27
2024 RM3	2024-Sep-10	4.8 LD	6.2	18
2024 RY3	2024-Sep-11	3.5 LD	14.1	14
2024 RW4	2024-Sep-11	8.6 LD	5.1	37
2016 TU19	2024-Sep-11	13.2 LD	10.1	47
2024 RO1	2024-Sep-11	9.1 LD	9.4	24
2024 RL8	2024-Sep-11	1.1 LD	13.3	12
2024 RH2	2024-Sep-12	7.8 LD	4.2	35
2024 QS1	2024-Sep-12	12.1 LD	14.3	134
2024 RF3	2024-Sep-12	4.7 LD	6.5	12
2024 RL4	2024-Sep-12	12.6 LD	16.8	24
2024 RB11	2024-Sep-13	4.8 LD	10.2	14
2024 RZ10	2024-Sep-13	14 LD	10.9	34
2024 RL10	2024-Sep-14	3.9 LD	5.7	11
2024 RT3	2024-Sep-15	16.3 LD	9.6	22
2024 RM10	2024-Sep-15	5.2 LD	6.6	28
2024 RQ5	2024-Sep-15	1.1 LD	5.9	9
2024 RS4	2024-Sep-15	6.5 LD	10.5	19
2019 DJ1	2024-Sep-15	10.4 LD	4.9	15
2024 RQ	2024-Sep-16	1.4 LD	6.7	33
2024 ON	2024-Sep-17	2.6 LD	8.9	279
2024 RY10	2024-Sep-17	4.6 LD	5.3	16
2013 FW13	2024-Sep-18	8.5 LD	15.6	162
2024 RH8	2024-Sep-18	8.4 LD	17.4	47
2022 SW3	2024-Sep-19	6.8 LD	9.2	37
2015 SH	2024-Sep-19	11.6 LD	5.9	9
2024 RJ1	2024-Sep-20	15.4 LD	8.9	41
2024 RB10	2024-Sep-20	19.1 LD	12.8	81
2024 QV5	2024-Sep-20	13.9 LD	10.6	34
2023 RX1	2024-Sep-20	10.1 LD	1.1	3
2018 VG	2024-Sep-20	13.4 LD	7.3	12
2020 GE	2024-Sep-24	1.7 LD	2.2	8
2024 RO11	2024-Sep-24	19.5 LD	19.3	40
2024 RK7	2024-Sep-25	17.8 LD	6.3	32
2011 ST12	2024-Sep-27	17.6 LD	7.4	19
2024 RO2	2024-Oct-02	4.2 LD	9.2	36
2023 GM1	2024-Oct-05	15.4 LD	5.2	13
2014 VA	2024-Oct-05	18.1 LD	6.3	46
2022 SU21	2024-Oct-06	17.5 LD	21.1	45
671076	2024-Oct-07	12.8 LD	8.6	120
2016 JG38	2024-Oct-08	13.2 LD	12	56
2018 QE	2024-Oct-09	1.7 LD	4.4	10
363027	2024-Oct-12	9.3 LD	16.6	419
2020 GE1	2024-Oct-12	20.1 LD	4.3	14
2022 UX1	2024-Oct-12	19.9 LD	9.9	9
2008 UU95	2024-Oct-12	13.5 LD	15.6	66
2021 TK11	2024-Oct-14	8 LD	10.6	7
2022 TB41	2024-Oct-15	10 LD	6	4
2019 UH14	2024-Oct-17	8.3 LD	10.4	62
2015 HM1	2024-Oct-24	14.4 LD	10.9	32
363305	2024-Oct-24	11.8 LD	4.9	186
2021 UE2	2024-Oct-24	13.6 LD	7.1	40
2023 TG14	2024-Oct-24	6.6 LD	6.9	24
2007 UT3	2024-Oct-26	17.7 LD	10.4	23
2020 WG	2024-Oct-28	8.7 LD	9.4	160
2021 CV1	2024-Oct-30	14.4 LD	23.6	38
2023 KX3	2024-Oct-31	18.8 LD	2.4	25
2022 UD21	2024-Oct-31	11.6 LD	11.8	27
2016 VA	2024-Nov-01	1.5 LD	21.2	11
2023 VS	2024-Nov-04	15.2 LD	4.3	4
2022 JM	2024-Nov-06	19.7 LD	6.2	6

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.

Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

Essential web links

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

The official U.S. government space weather bureau

Atmospheric Optics

The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.

Solar Dynamics Observatory

Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.

STEREO

3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory

Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.

SolarMonitor.org

information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary

Starlink Satellite Statistics

current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics.

The Aerospace Corporation

Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries

Daily Sunspot Summaries

from the NOAA Space Environment Center

NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts

fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.

Aurora 30 min forecast

from the NOAA Space Environment Center

Live Aurora Webcam

from Lights over Lapland

Heliophysics

the underlying science of space weather

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T CrB NOVA WATCH
today: m=9.9 (Sep 11.8)
yesterday: m=10.0
more: AAVSO data | sky map

Explanation: When the nova explodes, the visual magnitude of the star (m) will jump from +10 (invisible to the naked eye) to +2 (about as bright as the North Star).