Solar wind
speed: 346.4 km/sec
density: 0.46 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1002 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2012 UT Nov14
24-hr: C3 2259 UT Nov13
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2205 UT
Daily Sun: 14 Nov 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
Sunspot 3889 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 109
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 14 Nov 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 14 Nov 2024

Thermosphere Climate Index
 today: 31.24x1010 W Hot
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 13 Nov 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 150 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 14 Nov 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -8.7% Low
48-hr change: +0.2%
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 14 Nov 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3.33 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3.33 quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 11.04 nT
Bz: -3.41 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1002 UT
Coronal Holes: 14 Nov 24

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could is grazing Earth's magnetic field today, increasing the the chace of Arctic auroras. Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Nov. 11, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is cooling but still too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The northern season for NLCs is underway--but not for long. The first clouds were detected inside the Arctic Circle on May 25, 2024, by the NOAA 21 satellite. After peaking in July, the clouds are now in rapid decline. This is typical for the month of August, which usually brings the end of NLC season in the northern hemisphere.

noctilucent clouds
Updated: Aug. 28, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). In the daily map, above, each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2024 Nov 13 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
60 %
60 %
CLASS X
20 %
20 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2024 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
35 %
30 %
MINOR
15 %
15 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
15 %
MINOR
25 %
30 %
SEVERE
50 %
40 %
 
Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
What's up in space
       
 

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

 

20% CHANCE OF X-FLARES: Remember, Groundhog Day? Today's forecast is like a scene from that movie. Once again, AR3889 is threatening to produce an X-class solar flare--without actually producing one. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that could explode at any moment. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of X-flares on Nov. 14th. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

A RARE SINE WAVE IN THE MAGNETOSPHERE: Imagine you're at a hard rock concert. Waves of heavy metal crash against your eardrums, you can barely hear a thing, when, suddenly, the delicate trill of a flute cuts through the cacophony.

Something like that happened to Stuart Green of Lancashire UK during the severe geomagnetic storm of Oct. 10, 2024. "My backyard magnetogram was a riot," says Green. "But when I took a closer look, there was a delicate wave riding on top of the 'noise.'"

Green detected a rare "pulsation continuous"--or "Pc wave" for short. This is research jargon meaning, essentially, a pure sine wave in the magnetosphere. Pc waves are classified into 5 types depending on their frequency. Green's specimens are Pc1 and Pc2.

Usually, Pc waves are recorded only during periods of extreme quiet. They are delicate and hard to detect. Capturing one during riotous geomagnetic activity is extremely unusual. It is a testament to the sensitivity of Green's research-grade (albeit homemade) magnetometer--and the degree to which every mode of the magnetosphere was simultaneously activated by the Oct. 10th storm.

So what? These particular waves matter because they can help satellites survive severe space storms. Fast Pc1 and Pc2 waves scatter "killer electrons" out of the Van Allen radiation belts, making the region safer for satellites that orbit through the belts when they are supercharged by solar activity.

Would you like to monitor the magnetosphere for rare waves? Stuart Green's backyard magnetometer is a great DIY project. Here are the instructions.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

"I LOVE YOU MORE" MOONSTONE PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Nothing says "I love you" like a moonstone from space. This one hitched a ride on an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon, floating 112,201 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:

You can have it for $142.95. The students are selling these sterling silver infinity-wrapped moonstone pendants to support their ballooning program. Engraved with "I Love You More," it makes a romantic anniversary or birthday gift. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the moonstone in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

A SOLAR WIND STREAM IS AFFECTING EARTH: Today, a stream of solar wind is grazing Earth's magnetic field. It's not a fast-moving stream, but it is affecting our planet. Note the red-boxed region in this graph of solar wind data from NASA's ACE spacecraft:

The red box highlights south-pointing magnetic fields in the solar wind stream. These south-pointing fields are partially canceling our planet's north-pointing magnetic field. Resulting weak points (sometimes called "magnetic cracks") allow solar wind to enter Earth's magnetosphere, fueling geomagnetic unrest and Arctic auroras.

Arctic sky watchers, if you have pictures of the light show, submit them here.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Nov 13, 2024, the network reported 29 fireballs.
(25 sporadics, 2 northern Taurid, 1 Leonid, 1 November iota Draconid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 14, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2024 UU9
2024-Nov-09
14.5 LD
8.8
17
2024 VE
2024-Nov-09
5.5 LD
10.4
23
2024 UU4
2024-Nov-09
19.4 LD
5.7
15
2024 VB3
2024-Nov-09
9.3 LD
7.2
24
2024 VL2
2024-Nov-09
8.1 LD
6.8
26
2024 UZ
2024-Nov-10
16.4 LD
4.9
19
2024 VY3
2024-Nov-10
2 LD
11
10
2024 UC3
2024-Nov-10
11 LD
6.6
28
2024 UK8
2024-Nov-11
19.7 LD
18.7
21
2024 VC3
2024-Nov-11
15.9 LD
12.9
45
2024 VA4
2024-Nov-11
2.8 LD
10
32
2019 WB7
2024-Nov-11
17.3 LD
5.7
43
2024 VP4
2024-Nov-11
0.8 LD
3.7
7
2024 UE4
2024-Nov-11
3.4 LD
12.5
29
2024 VH1
2024-Nov-12
1.3 LD
10
17
2020 UL3
2024-Nov-12
4.1 LD
10.5
80
2020 AB2
2024-Nov-13
18.9 LD
7.2
14
2024 VO2
2024-Nov-13
11.4 LD
6.8
14
2024 VX3
2024-Nov-13
0.4 LD
7
8
2024 VV1
2024-Nov-14
19 LD
6
15
2024 UA10
2024-Nov-14
19.1 LD
15.5
31
2019 VU5
2024-Nov-14
12 LD
23.3
46
2019 VL5
2024-Nov-14
9.6 LD
8.5
24
2024 UE13
2024-Nov-15
19.7 LD
7.9
27
2024 VK3
2024-Nov-16
1.1 LD
11.1
12
2024 VS3
2024-Nov-16
4.3 LD
13.1
21
2024 VC4
2024-Nov-16
6.5 LD
19.3
29
2024 VZ2
2024-Nov-17
3.3 LD
10.2
22
2024 UC5
2024-Nov-17
10.8 LD
4.2
20
2024 VT3
2024-Nov-18
12.6 LD
12.3
41
2023 WK3
2024-Nov-18
16.1 LD
14.5
272
2024 UZ10
2024-Nov-18
11.6 LD
13.2
47
2024 VU2
2024-Nov-19
15.1 LD
8.7
40
2012 KO11
2024-Nov-20
6.2 LD
9.4
43
2024 UW9
2024-Nov-20
13.5 LD
14.8
45
2020 VX4
2024-Nov-20
10.5 LD
10.5
11
2010 WC
2024-Nov-21
1.9 LD
9.1
31
2024 VY2
2024-Nov-24
16.4 LD
13.3
54
2009 WB105
2024-Nov-25
15.1 LD
18.9
71
2006 WB
2024-Nov-26
2.3 LD
4.2
98
2018 DC4
2024-Nov-29
18.8 LD
4.5
12
2019 JN2
2024-Nov-30
9.4 LD
7.7
25
2021 XZ
2024-Dec-02
13.2 LD
7.4
8
447755
2024-Dec-03
14.4 LD
12.2
402
2020 XR
2024-Dec-04
5.8 LD
12.3
388
2021 WA5
2024-Dec-05
9.8 LD
5.9
12
2024 UU3
2024-Dec-08
16.9 LD
4.8
38
2018 XU3
2024-Dec-11
16.8 LD
10.8
28
2007 XB23
2024-Dec-11
1.2 LD
4.8
14
2022 YO1
2024-Dec-17
2 LD
14.3
4
2020 XY4
2024-Dec-19
12.8 LD
8.8
14
2017 YD2
2024-Dec-27
18 LD
9.9
6
2024 AV2
2024-Dec-31
6.7 LD
7.8
17
2021 AO4
2025-Jan-04
6.9 LD
15.1
11
2020 BC6
2025-Jan-05
9.6 LD
22.2
248
2024 BM1
2025-Jan-08
11.5 LD
9.1
22
2024 PT5
2025-Jan-09
4.7 LD
1
12
2023 OS3
2025-Jan-09
19.9 LD
3.1
10
2012 UK171
2025-Jan-11
10.7 LD
6.4
46
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Starlink Satellite Statistics
  current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics.
The Aerospace Corporation
  Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

Spaceweather.com welcomes these supporters of science communication: RV Sales and Arizona Web Design & SEO and Dentist in Phoenix, AZand Commercial Cleaning Phoenix | Pest Control in Phoenix | HVAC repair in South Jersey | Dental implants New Jersey | Dental Implants New Jersey

To get the best views of the cosmos, check out the Phoenix Window Glass Replacement experts for all your window and glass needs
Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area.
NASA Near Earth Asteroid Home Page

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  more links...
 
 

T CrB NOVA WATCH
today: m=10.1 (Nov 14.7)
yesterday: m=10.2
more: AAVSO data

Explanation: When the nova explodes, the visual magnitude of the star (m) will jump from +10 (invisible to the naked eye) to +2 (about as bright as the North Star).



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