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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Sep 16 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
05
% |
05
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
40
% |
20
% |
MINOR |
10
% |
05
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
20
% |
25
% |
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This is an AI Free Zone: AI writing is everywhere -- except here. Spaceweather.com is written 100% by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. If you find a mistake, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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THE SUN IS ON THE VERGE BEING SPOTLESS: If a new sunspot doesn't emerge soon, the face of the sun will be blank. Today, there is only one dark core on the Earthside of the sun (AR4528), and it is about to rotate off the sun's western limb. Its disappearance would bring the 4th spotless day of 2026, the most in more than 5 years. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
UNEXPECTED SATELLITE EXPLOSION: A Cold War spy satellite just broke apart in Earth orbit, and no one knows why.
The US Space Force detected the breakup on Sept. 13th when USA 32 unexpectedly shed a cloud of debris 775 km above Earth. The number of fragments is still unknown; Space-Track, the Space Force's public catalog, has not yet released a count.
USA 32 was launched in 1988 on a top-secret mission to monitor Soviet radars from orbit. It was part of a series of satellites named after the actress Farrah Fawcett. This one was Farrah III, shaped, ironically, like a squat cylinder. The "tuna can" form allowed it to rapidly spin and sweep its antennas across the ground below. The NRO declassified the program only this year.
There may be nothing sinister about this event. Old spacecraft carry batteries and leftover propellant. After 38 years of heating and cooling, a pressurized tank or a battery cell on USA 32 may have simply ruptured. This is the leading suspicion, although it is too soon to rule out a meteor strike or ASAT.
Other satellites may be in danger. USA 32 broke up in the most crowded shell of low Earth orbit. Within 50 km of its altitude are more than 400 active satellites, including the weather satellite NOAA-20. Within days, the debris from USA 32 will have spread all around the original orbit.
Analysts are carefully tracking the fragments and measuring their individual trajectories. Soon, they may be able to "run the clock backward" to see how the explosion began.
Stay tuned for updates!
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Space Weather Newsletter
STARRY NIGHT WINE STOPPER: You can't buy this on Amazon. Only the Earth to Sky Store has the Starry Night Wine Stopper. On March 15, 2026, this impressionist stopper flew to the stratosphere onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $99.95. The Starry Night is an oil-on-canvas painting by Vincent van Gogh. Physicists say it accurately depicts Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities in the clouds outside his asylum room at Saint-Rémy-de-Provence, just before sunrise. The airtight rubber seal securely plugs bottles of wine or any other beverage.
With your stopper, you'll receive a gift card showing the Starry Night in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere (and back again).
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On September 16, 2026, the network reported 7 fireballs.
(7 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On September 17, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 OH3 |
2026-Sep-11 |
12.4 LD |
20.2 |
190 |
| 2026 RN34 |
2026-Sep-11 |
8.6 LD |
13.2 |
30 |
| 2026 RP34 |
2026-Sep-11 |
6 LD |
7 |
29 |
| 2026 RG4 |
2026-Sep-11 |
3.4 LD |
3 |
14 |
| 2026 RZ14 |
2026-Sep-11 |
3.4 LD |
6.4 |
8 |
| 2026 RJ |
2026-Sep-11 |
4.4 LD |
6.9 |
23 |
| 2026 RD1 |
2026-Sep-11 |
5.5 LD |
6.9 |
17 |
| 2025 RQ2 |
2026-Sep-11 |
17.5 LD |
12.1 |
17 |
| 2026 RS38 |
2026-Sep-11 |
8.4 LD |
11.6 |
17 |
| 2026 RD15 |
2026-Sep-12 |
7.3 LD |
19.1 |
33 |
| 2026 RH39 |
2026-Sep-12 |
4.4 LD |
10.6 |
11 |
| 2026 RS34 |
2026-Sep-12 |
4.7 LD |
11.4 |
14 |
| 2026 RQ15 |
2026-Sep-12 |
5.1 LD |
16.3 |
18 |
| 2026 RL10 |
2026-Sep-12 |
2.4 LD |
2.7 |
14 |
| 2026 RW34 |
2026-Sep-12 |
3.5 LD |
6.8 |
6 |
| 2026 RO34 |
2026-Sep-12 |
5.4 LD |
8 |
9 |
| 2026 RT34 |
2026-Sep-13 |
0.1 LD |
13.1 |
3 |
| 2026 RG2 |
2026-Sep-13 |
2.1 LD |
5.4 |
15 |
| 2026 RF2 |
2026-Sep-13 |
9.2 LD |
10.3 |
10 |
| 2026 RP10 |
2026-Sep-13 |
6.8 LD |
15.4 |
24 |
| 2010 FX9 |
2026-Sep-14 |
9.4 LD |
11.1 |
55 |
| 2025 SC |
2026-Sep-14 |
19.2 LD |
1.9 |
3 |
| 2026 RE39 |
2026-Sep-14 |
3.3 LD |
10.9 |
18 |
| 2026 RO39 |
2026-Sep-14 |
0.7 LD |
10.5 |
5 |
| 2026 RM34 |
2026-Sep-14 |
8 LD |
12.5 |
12 |
| 2026 RO10 |
2026-Sep-14 |
14.6 LD |
9.3 |
61 |
| 2026 RG15 |
2026-Sep-15 |
0.2 LD |
9.1 |
21 |
| 2024 RP12 |
2026-Sep-15 |
18.5 LD |
6.6 |
51 |
| 2026 RF39 |
2026-Sep-16 |
5.7 LD |
7.6 |
22 |
| 2026 RM39 |
2026-Sep-16 |
4.3 LD |
9.8 |
10 |
| 2023 SZ3 |
2026-Sep-16 |
6.7 LD |
10.3 |
58 |
| 2026 RA4 |
2026-Sep-16 |
3.4 LD |
11.7 |
20 |
| 2026 RB39 |
2026-Sep-17 |
1 LD |
9.3 |
6 |
| 2026 NT2 |
2026-Sep-17 |
16.1 LD |
12.5 |
314 |
| 2026 RN4 |
2026-Sep-17 |
16.2 LD |
8.9 |
19 |
| 2026 RD38 |
2026-Sep-17 |
15.2 LD |
8.2 |
35 |
| 2026 RF15 |
2026-Sep-19 |
5.5 LD |
14.1 |
27 |
| 2026 RH3 |
2026-Sep-19 |
17.2 LD |
11.7 |
29 |
| 2026 RP1 |
2026-Sep-20 |
20 LD |
17.2 |
42 |
| 2026 RW37 |
2026-Sep-20 |
1.2 LD |
8.7 |
8 |
| 2026 RG39 |
2026-Sep-21 |
6.8 LD |
5.1 |
9 |
| 2026 RZ1 |
2026-Sep-22 |
10.4 LD |
9.1 |
36 |
| 2026 RA38 |
2026-Sep-22 |
14.7 LD |
8 |
24 |
| 2026 RJ15 |
2026-Sep-22 |
5.5 LD |
10.3 |
18 |
| 2026 RR34 |
2026-Sep-23 |
3.7 LD |
6.5 |
20 |
| 2026 RQ34 |
2026-Sep-24 |
13 LD |
7 |
30 |
| 2026 RN15 |
2026-Sep-27 |
8.4 LD |
6.5 |
21 |
| 2026 RS |
2026-Sep-30 |
11.2 LD |
6 |
24 |
| 2026 RX38 |
2026-Sep-30 |
10 LD |
14.4 |
33 |
| 2018 SP2 |
2026-Sep-30 |
5 LD |
14.3 |
39 |
| 2019 AS2 |
2026-Oct-02 |
4.5 LD |
7.3 |
49 |
| 2026 RP39 |
2026-Oct-03 |
6.1 LD |
6.1 |
21 |
| 2024 SH7 |
2026-Oct-04 |
10.5 LD |
10.8 |
12 |
| 2024 TD16 |
2026-Oct-07 |
14.2 LD |
11.8 |
17 |
| 2015 TS238 |
2026-Oct-08 |
4.7 LD |
15.8 |
30 |
| 2019 SD8 |
2026-Oct-10 |
18.7 LD |
9.5 |
12 |
| 2022 UP6 |
2026-Oct-15 |
2.6 LD |
9 |
8 |
| 2000 SZ162 |
2026-Oct-16 |
19.9 LD |
5.7 |
12 |
| 2020 FN3 |
2026-Oct-20 |
12.4 LD |
5.8 |
45 |
| 2017 UX7 |
2026-Oct-22 |
17 LD |
10.3 |
27 |
| 2018 GS1 |
2026-Oct-28 |
11.1 LD |
9.3 |
108 |
| 2022 UV21 |
2026-Oct-29 |
14.8 LD |
9.6 |
13 |
| 2025 UK9 |
2026-Oct-31 |
0.8 LD |
7.8 |
4 |
| 524522 |
2026-Nov-02 |
15.7 LD |
8.7 |
277 |
| 2021 VC4 |
2026-Nov-03 |
6 LD |
11.2 |
15 |
| 2017 WJ2 |
2026-Nov-05 |
15.6 LD |
11.8 |
118 |
| 2016 VZ1 |
2026-Nov-05 |
20 LD |
13.5 |
21 |
| 2001 KF54 |
2026-Nov-06 |
18.9 LD |
16.4 |
391 |
| 2025 UF5 |
2026-Nov-09 |
18.9 LD |
1.9 |
10 |
| 2015 VH65 |
2026-Nov-10 |
9.7 LD |
8 |
10 |
| 2012 YD7 |
2026-Nov-10 |
18.6 LD |
7.5 |
49 |
| 2023 VF3 |
2026-Nov-11 |
8.5 LD |
8.8 |
19 |
| 2022 MP2 |
2026-Nov-13 |
19.8 LD |
3.8 |
23 |
| 2025 VG5 |
2026-Nov-13 |
18.2 LD |
4.9 |
16 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
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©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
