 | | |  SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2025 Nov 04 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 65 % | 65 % | CLASS X | 15 % | 15 % |  Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2025 Nov 04 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 10 % | 35 % | MINOR | 01 % | 25 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 05 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 20 % | 10 % | MINOR | 20 % | 25 % | SEVERE | 10 % | 60 % | | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | This is an AI Free Zone: Text created by Large Language Models is spreading across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being. | | | X-FLARE TODAY! Sunspot 4274 erupted again today, Nov. 4th (1734 UTC), producing an X1.8-class solar flare. The explosion was dramatic. A pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare caused a shortwave radio blackout over South America, and a CME is emerging from the blast site. Stay tuned for updates as we receive fresh data from space-based coronagraphs. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text. THE STRONGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE SPACE AGE: Twenty-two years ago today, the sun unleashed the strongest X-ray solar flare of the Space Age. The underlying sunspot was not facing Earth; otherwise we might have experienced a new Carrington Event. Instead, the debris flew harmlessly off the sun's western limb: 
The flare's extreme ultraviolet flash recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
The explosion on Nov. 4, 2003, was so intense that, at first, no one knew how strong it was. X-ray detectors onboard GOES satellites were saturated for 11 minutes. This clipped the readings at X17.4, but clearly it was stronger. Shortwave radios in North America went silent as the continent experienced a deep radio blackout--a hint at the flare's true severity. Eventually, researchers figured it out. Our personal favorite estimate comes from this paper, which describes how Earth's ionosphere was used as a giant solar flare detector. Their answer, X45, has been confirmed by other studies. This puts it in the same ballpark as the Carrington Event. There were no X-ray detectors in the 19th century, so researchers have to use indirect methods to estimate the intensity of Carrington's flare on Sept. 1, 1859. Studies of auroras, ice cores, and magnetic disturbances suggest values near X45, although some estimates go as high as X80. 
Now for the interesting part: The Nov. 4, 2003, flare occurred during the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23. Twenty-two years later, we are near the same point in Solar Cycle 25. As any good space weather forecaster will tell you, the downslopes of solar cycles are prime time for big explosions. No one knows why, but it's true. In conclusion, don't be surprised if it happens again. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
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DARK MATTER COINS FROM SPACE: These coins are not actually made of Dark Matter, but they are inscribed with the words "Dark Matter," and you can spend them. The US Mint has created a series of quarters honoring astronomer Vera Rubin, who discovered the pull of dark matter in galaxies. On Sept. 6, 2025, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew them to the stratosphere:
You can have two unbroken rolls for $199.95. The coin's design features a profile of Dr. Vera Rubin gazing upward, smiling as she contemplates the cosmos. She is surrounded by a spiral galaxy and other celestial bodies. One of the rolls is D Mint, the other P Mint, so you'll have a complete set. You'll also receive a greeting card showing the coins in flight and telling the story of their journey to the edge of space. Don't need a whole roll? You can buy a single coin for only $39.95.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Nov 03, 2025, the network reported 16 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 5 Northern Taurids, 1 chi Taurid)  In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On November 4, 2025 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | | 2025 UF12 | 2025-Oct-30 | 2.4 LD | 8.9 | 14 | | 2025 UX18 | 2025-Oct-30 | 0.1 LD | 8.1 | 3 | | 2025 VG | 2025-Oct-30 | 2.4 LD | 6.4 | 14 | | 2025 UC11 | 2025-Oct-30 | 0 LD | 11.4 | 1 | | 2025 UF4 | 2025-Oct-30 | 15.3 LD | 10.2 | 78 | | 2025 UE9 | 2025-Oct-30 | 3.4 LD | 24.5 | 18 | | 2025 UK9 | 2025-Oct-30 | 1.1 LD | 7.8 | 4 | | 2025 UH7 | 2025-Oct-31 | 2.2 LD | 7.8 | 8 | | 2025 UN9 | 2025-Oct-31 | 7.2 LD | 2.4 | 8 | | 2025 VD | 2025-Oct-31 | 0.8 LD | 13.1 | 19 | | 2025 VE | 2025-Nov-01 | 4.2 LD | 6.7 | 11 | | 2025 UO7 | 2025-Nov-01 | 8 LD | 7.6 | 17 | | 2025 UU9 | 2025-Nov-01 | 14.9 LD | 4.4 | 14 | | 2025 TP11 | 2025-Nov-02 | 12 LD | 8.4 | 35 | | 2005 EZ223 | 2025-Nov-03 | 15.6 LD | 12.9 | 78 | | 2025 VB | 2025-Nov-03 | 15.9 LD | 8.6 | 35 | | 2023 VK6 | 2025-Nov-03 | 7.6 LD | 9.6 | 15 | | 2025 UR12 | 2025-Nov-04 | 4.5 LD | 6.2 | 8 | | 2025 TB12 | 2025-Nov-04 | 7.3 LD | 6.3 | 19 | | 2025 UT11 | 2025-Nov-05 | 14.3 LD | 7.7 | 13 | | 2025 UP11 | 2025-Nov-06 | 6.5 LD | 5.1 | 8 | | 2025 UO8 | 2025-Nov-06 | 17.9 LD | 7.2 | 33 | | 2025 UN11 | 2025-Nov-07 | 9 LD | 6.7 | 10 | | 2025 UL4 | 2025-Nov-07 | 16.8 LD | 8.2 | 25 | | 2021 VQ10 | 2025-Nov-08 | 9 LD | 15 | 13 | | 2019 UH7 | 2025-Nov-08 | 13.3 LD | 5.8 | 11 | | 2025 UL17 | 2025-Nov-08 | 5.9 LD | 9 | 36 | | 2018 KC | 2025-Nov-09 | 16 LD | 9.3 | 11 | | 2017 WG14 | 2025-Nov-09 | 16.7 LD | 11.7 | 45 | | 2020 VK4 | 2025-Nov-10 | 16.4 LD | 3.8 | 9 | | 2012 VC26 | 2025-Nov-11 | 13.3 LD | 6.4 | 6 | | 2025 UP9 | 2025-Nov-11 | 18.1 LD | 14 | 46 | | 2025 US11 | 2025-Nov-14 | 12.6 LD | 8.1 | 22 | | 2019 VL5 | 2025-Nov-14 | 14.7 LD | 9.1 | 24 | | 2022 FG4 | 2025-Nov-17 | 18.7 LD | 22.2 | 105 | | 3361 | 2025-Nov-19 | 14.8 LD | 9.1 | 439 | | 2013 NJ4 | 2025-Nov-20 | 12.6 LD | 6.4 | 12 | | 2021 WR | 2025-Nov-22 | 19.3 LD | 10 | 31 | | 516155 | 2025-Nov-24 | 12.5 LD | 16.7 | 338 | | 2020 WM | 2025-Nov-24 | 17.4 LD | 11.8 | 36 | | 2019 UT6 | 2025-Nov-25 | 6.2 LD | 12.6 | 146 | | 2018 WG2 | 2025-Nov-27 | 13.5 LD | 7.5 | 3 | | 2007 VM184 | 2025-Dec-01 | 13.1 LD | 20 | 219 | | 2018 WC2 | 2025-Dec-03 | 9.8 LD | 8.9 | 36 | | 2025 UF10 | 2025-Dec-04 | 14.7 LD | 13.2 | 133 | | 2021 JE1 | 2025-Dec-08 | 13.5 LD | 7.1 | 16 | | 2019 XN3 | 2025-Dec-10 | 5.7 LD | 3.6 | 15 | | 1999 SF10 | 2025-Dec-10 | 8.2 LD | 4.4 | 46 | | 2016 YH | 2025-Dec-13 | 6.8 LD | 8.9 | 28 | | 2025 TZ | 2025-Dec-15 | 17.8 LD | 6.2 | 53 | | 2015 XX168 | 2025-Dec-18 | 4.7 LD | 11.6 | 27 | | 2010 WR7 | 2025-Dec-20 | 19.5 LD | 8.3 | 71 | | 2021 AB1 | 2025-Dec-28 | 10.2 LD | 12.3 | 16 | | 2019 AU | 2025-Dec-30 | 19.3 LD | 2.8 | 16 | | 2024 AV2 | 2025-Dec-30 | 17.9 LD | 7 | 17 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low: 
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. | | | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries | | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | | the underlying science of space weather |  | Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. | | | These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! | | | | | | | | |  | | |  | ©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
