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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 328.9 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A1
2029 UT May04
24-hr: A1
1356 UT May04
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 04 May 20
A new-cycle sunspot is struggling to emerge at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 04 May 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 3 days
2020 total: 93 days (74%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 04 May 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.34
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 03 May 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 04 May 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.7% High
48-hr change: -0.5%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 04 May 2020 @ 0800 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.7 nT
Bz: -0.2 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 04 May 20

Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on May 4-5.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds is coming soon--probably starting in mid- to late-May. Check here for daily images from NASA's AIM spacecraft.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 05-03-2020 21:55:02 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 May 03 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 May 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
20 %
MINOR
05 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
20 %
MINOR
25 %
25 %
SEVERE
20 %
25 %
 
Monday, May. 4, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Solar minimum is here - but even now strangely beautiful auroras are dancing around the poles. Deep inside the Arctic Circle, the expert guides of Aurora Holidays in Utsjoki, Finland, can help you chase them. Book now!

 

ETA AQUARID METEOR SHOWER: Earth is entering a stream of debris from Halley's Comet, source of the annual eta Aquarid meteor shower. The shower's peak on May 5th and 6th will be muted by the glare of a nearly full Moon, reducing the number of visible meteors to no more than about 10 per hour. The best time to look is during the hours before sunrise on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Sky maps: northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere.

COVID-19 SKIES: Nobody likes a lockdown--except maybe Mother Nature. With many industrialized countries paralyzed by the coronavirus, air pollution has dropped, seismic activity has waned, and wildlife is reclaiming some territory. Frankie Lucena of Puerto Rico points out another effect: "Night skies are darkening," he says.

"I prepared these images to show how the COVID-19 lockdown has dramatically decreased light pollution in the US and in Puerto Rico," says Lucena.

To investigate the change in light pollution, Lucena accessed nighttime images from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on board the Suomi NPP satellite. The instrument's Day-Night band is excellent at detecting urban lights, moonlit clouds, and auroras. Dramatic changes in urban lighting have clearly happened during the past month as normal commerce and travel have slowed. The data are available here.

"As a night sky photographer and astronomy enthusiast I embrace this change," says Lucena, "but I do wish it was under better circumstances."

Indeed, we at Spaceweather.com join Lucena in hoping for a speedy end to the pandemic. Light pollution is bad, but there are better ways to reduce it.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

LARGE SOLAR PROMINANCE: Do you need a haircut? So does the sun. "Look who else needs a trim!" says astrophotographer Alan Friedman, who sends this picture from Buffalo, New York:

"This is one of three areas of prominence activity on the sun," he reports.

Prominences are clouds of hydrogen held above the sun's surface by solar magnetic fields. The big prominence Friedman photographed is 20 times taller than Earth and definitely unstable. Photographs taken by other amateur astronomers just hours apart show the structure's shape shifting perilously. An eruption could be in the offing. Submit your images here.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

MOTHER'S DAY IS THIS SUNDAY! Are you looking for an out-of-this world Mother's Day gift? Consider this: Every time the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launch a cosmic ray balloon, they include something extra in the payload--something Mom will love:

Every item in the Earth to Sky Store has flown to the edge of space and comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight. The interior of the card tells the story of the gift's journey from launch to landing. Mom-satisfaction guaranteed!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On May 03, 2020, the network reported 12 fireballs.
(8 eta Aquarids, 4 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On May 4, 2020 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 HG3
2020-Apr-29
12.5 LD
11
22
2020 HJ6
2020-Apr-29
1.7 LD
16.5
17
52768
2020-Apr-29
16.4 LD
8.7
2457
2020 HK6
2020-Apr-29
3.1 LD
14.9
11
2020 HW2
2020-Apr-29
18 LD
9.8
38
2020 HO3
2020-Apr-30
17.5 LD
9.3
21
2020 GY2
2020-Apr-30
17.2 LD
16.3
66
2020 HB3
2020-Apr-30
13 LD
12.2
34
2020 JG
2020-Apr-30
0.6 LD
13.2
24
2020 HK3
2020-May-01
4.4 LD
23.4
51
2020 HF4
2020-May-01
9.1 LD
2.6
11
2020 DM4
2020-May-01
18.4 LD
6.4
158
2020 HU2
2020-May-01
7.4 LD
5.6
17
2020 HR6
2020-May-01
12.7 LD
12.2
20
2020 HN9
2020-May-02
15 LD
12.2
32
2020 HZ4
2020-May-02
16.1 LD
18.8
52
2020 HD10
2020-May-02
3.4 LD
11
13
2020 HN5
2020-May-03
9.6 LD
7.1
35
2020 JB
2020-May-03
15.3 LD
10.4
77
2020 HL1
2020-May-03
12.6 LD
12
31
2020 JA
2020-May-03
0.6 LD
20.3
13
2020 GE3
2020-May-04
19.1 LD
5.2
22
2020 HQ3
2020-May-04
10.8 LD
9.5
30
2020 HU9
2020-May-04
16.8 LD
17.2
40
2020 HV4
2020-May-04
18.2 LD
10
79
2020 HS9
2020-May-05
4.6 LD
18.1
31
2020 HR8
2020-May-05
9.1 LD
9.6
14
2020 HZ6
2020-May-05
10.2 LD
21.7
34
2020 HL
2020-May-05
16.7 LD
9.1
35
2020 HF7
2020-May-05
9.3 LD
17.3
22
2020 HL6
2020-May-06
2.1 LD
5.4
9
438908
2020-May-07
8.9 LD
12.8
282
2020 JE
2020-May-07
11.8 LD
12.1
21
2020 JF
2020-May-07
5 LD
18.5
22
2020 HM4
2020-May-07
10.7 LD
18.1
42
2016 HP6
2020-May-07
4.3 LD
5.7
31
2020 HB6
2020-May-08
9.8 LD
9.1
52
2020 HC6
2020-May-09
2.9 LD
6
35
388945
2020-May-10
7.3 LD
8.8
295
2000 KA
2020-May-12
8.9 LD
13.5
162
2020 HS6
2020-May-14
16.1 LD
23.6
131
478784
2020-May-15
8.5 LD
3.6
28
2020 HA9
2020-May-15
18.2 LD
15.8
31
2020 HG9
2020-May-18
15.6 LD
10.7
73
136795
2020-May-21
16.1 LD
11.7
892
163348
2020-Jun-06
13.3 LD
11.1
339
2013 XA22
2020-Jun-09
10.6 LD
6.5
98
2017 MF7
2020-Jun-14
3.7 LD
10.9
23
2018 PD22
2020-Jun-19
17.2 LD
14.6
56
441987
2020-Jun-24
9.8 LD
12.9
186
2017 FW128
2020-Jun-25
6.9 LD
5.4
11
2019 AC3
2020-Jul-01
10.5 LD
3.4
12
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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