Solar minimum is here - but even now strangely beautiful auroras are dancing around the poles. Deep inside the Arctic Circle, the expert guides of Aurora Holidays in Utsjoki, Finland, can help you chase them. Book now! | | |
A NEW SUNSPOT: A sunspot is emerging in the sun's northern hemisphere. Its magnetic polarity identifies it as a probable member of new Solar Cycle 25. This is the second Solar Cycle 25 sunspot we've seen this month, continuing a trend of low but intensifying Cycle 25 activity. The next solar cycle is coming, after all.
POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS: The finest outbreak of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in decades is still going strong. "We witnessed a wonderful display this evening, Jan. 8th," reports Alex Conu, who saw the clouds drawing a crowd in Oslo, Norway:
"The cloud's bright pastel colors looked fabulous alongside Venus in the evening sky," he says.
Polar stratospheric clouds are rare. Normally, the stratosphere has no clouds at all. A few times each winter, however, icy clouds form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops below -85C. Such staggeringly-low temperatures are required to help sparse water molecules stick together. This winter, the clouds have been appearing daily since late December, a sign of unusually cold conditions in the stratosphere.
Stratospheric clouds are widely regarded as the most beautiful clouds on Earth. Because of their intense colors (caused by high-altitude sunlight hitting tiny ice crystals), novice sky watchers sometimes mistake the clouds for auroras. This picture from P-M Hedén of Tänndalen, Sweden, shows why:
"On Jan. 4th, the colors got so strong that the snow turned red," marvels Hedén. "I have been seeing these crazy displays at both sunrise and sunset from my cabin in the Swedish mountains."
Stay tuned for updates as the outbreak continues.
Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
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SILK SPACE ROSE FOR VALENTINE'S DAY: Valentine's Day is coming, and nothing says "I love you" like a silk rose from the edge of space. On Jan. 4, 2020, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched their first cosmic ray balloon of 2020. This rose went along for the ride, traveling 111,424 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:
You can have it for $116.65. The students are selling Valentine's space roses to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each silk bloom comes with a greeting card showing the rose in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again. Also included are the glass dome, wooden base, and an LED light kit to make your rose glisten like the stars.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
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ELECTRICITY SURGES THROUGH THE SOIL OF NORWAY: On Jan. 6th, something unexpected happened in the soil of northern Norway. "Electrical currents started flowing," reports Rob Stammes, who monitors ground currents at the Polarlightcenter geophysical observatory in Lofoten. This chart recording shows the sudden surge around 1930 UT:
"It seemed to be some kind of shockwave," says Stammes. "My instruments detected a sudden, strong variation in both ground currents and our local magnetic field. It really was a surprise."
NASA's ACE spacecraft detected something as well. About 15 minutes before the disturbance in Norway, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth abruptly swung around 180 degrees, and the solar wind density jumped more than 5-fold. Earth may have crossed through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet--a giant, wavy membrane of electrical current rippling through the solar system. Such crossings can cause these kind of effects.
While currents flowed through the ground, auroras filled the sky. Rayann Elzein photographed the corresponding outburst of lights from Utsjoki, Finland:
"What a surprise!" says Elzein. "The auroras were sudden and dynamic, with fast-moving green needles and several purple fringes!"
The auroras and ground currents were caused by the same thing: Rapidly changing magnetic fields. High above Earth's surface, magnetic vibrations shook loose energetic particles, which rained down on the upper atmosphere, creating auroras where they struck. Just below Earth's surface, magnetic vibrations caused currents to flow, triggering Rob Stammes' ground sensors.
"We couldn't see the auroras in northern Norway because of cloud cover," says Stammes, a little ruefully. "We had to be satisfied with the electricity underfoot."
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Jan. 08, 2020, the network reported 28 fireballs.
(27 sporadics, 1 alpha Hydrid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On January 8, 2020 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2020 AN1 | 2020-Jan-04 | 2.6 LD | 11.8 | 23 |
2019 YB4 | 2020-Jan-04 | 3.3 LD | 6.1 | 16 |
2020 AM2 | 2020-Jan-04 | 10.8 LD | 10.1 | 16 |
2020 AU1 | 2020-Jan-06 | 4.1 LD | 6.3 | 18 |
2020 AW | 2020-Jan-06 | 4.8 LD | 4.3 | 7 |
2019 YT3 | 2020-Jan-07 | 13.2 LD | 7.4 | 25 |
2020 AV1 | 2020-Jan-07 | 7.3 LD | 12.1 | 22 |
2020 AJ1 | 2020-Jan-07 | 13.6 LD | 22.2 | 81 |
2020 AR1 | 2020-Jan-08 | 6.9 LD | 9.6 | 13 |
2020 AT1 | 2020-Jan-09 | 2.5 LD | 6.2 | 11 |
2019 YV | 2020-Jan-10 | 17.3 LD | 4.5 | 69 |
2020 AL2 | 2020-Jan-10 | 6.2 LD | 24.8 | 27 |
2019 YF4 | 2020-Jan-10 | 3.7 LD | 2.9 | 15 |
2019 UO | 2020-Jan-10 | 11.8 LD | 9.4 | 331 |
2019 WC5 | 2020-Jan-11 | 6.4 LD | 13 | 109 |
2019 YV5 | 2020-Jan-11 | 16.8 LD | 13.9 | 48 |
2020 AO1 | 2020-Jan-12 | 8.5 LD | 17.7 | 65 |
2020 AB2 | 2020-Jan-12 | 3.8 LD | 7.9 | 15 |
2020 AE | 2020-Jan-13 | 11.7 LD | 6.8 | 25 |
2020 AS1 | 2020-Jan-13 | 15.8 LD | 5.7 | 17 |
2020 AE1 | 2020-Jan-13 | 6.6 LD | 4.2 | 12 |
2020 AO | 2020-Jan-14 | 9.3 LD | 19.5 | 48 |
2011 EP51 | 2020-Jan-15 | 19.6 LD | 7.1 | 32 |
2017 RZ15 | 2020-Jan-15 | 12.1 LD | 7.4 | 14 |
2020 AZ1 | 2020-Jan-16 | 8.3 LD | 4 | 17 |
2019 YD3 | 2020-Jan-16 | 6.9 LD | 4.8 | 22 |
2010 AE30 | 2020-Jan-17 | 11.9 LD | 12.3 | 68 |
2019 YG1 | 2020-Jan-17 | 17.5 LD | 4.5 | 31 |
2019 YQ3 | 2020-Jan-17 | 18.2 LD | 3.1 | 18 |
2020 AD1 | 2020-Jan-17 | 9.1 LD | 4.5 | 19 |
2020 AH1 | 2020-Jan-18 | 15.9 LD | 8 | 45 |
2009 BH2 | 2020-Jan-18 | 14.6 LD | 17.9 | 118 |
2019 YA5 | 2020-Jan-19 | 11.7 LD | 5.2 | 22 |
2020 AQ1 | 2020-Jan-20 | 10.6 LD | 27.6 | 135 |
2013 DU | 2020-Jan-20 | 14.9 LD | 6.4 | 59 |
2019 TF2 | 2020-Jan-23 | 16.2 LD | 1.6 | 18 |
2018 BM5 | 2020-Jan-23 | 13.1 LD | 8.6 | 12 |
2018 AL12 | 2020-Jan-30 | 18.2 LD | 17.7 | 39 |
2017 AE5 | 2020-Feb-01 | 13.6 LD | 9 | 135 |
2018 BU1 | 2020-Feb-02 | 19.4 LD | 10 | 41 |
163373 | 2020-Feb-15 | 15.1 LD | 15.2 | 589 |
2018 CW2 | 2020-Feb-17 | 6 LD | 10.2 | 28 |
2019 BE5 | 2020-Feb-20 | 13.9 LD | 14.8 | 34 |
2011 DR | 2020-Feb-23 | 14.7 LD | 5.8 | 25 |
2016 CO246 | 2020-Feb-23 | 18.4 LD | 5.9 | 23 |
2012 DS30 | 2020-Feb-26 | 12.3 LD | 5.4 | 22 |
2015 BK509 | 2020-Feb-28 | 18.3 LD | 12.5 | 118 |
2017 BM123 | 2020-Mar-01 | 10.5 LD | 8.1 | 65 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.
E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.
The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.
To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:
The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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