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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 309.1 km/sec
density: 10.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2
1818 UT Aug20
24-hr: B1
0630 UT Aug20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 20 Aug 20
New-cycle sunspot AR2772 is crackling with B-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 15
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 20 Aug 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 157 days (67%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 20 Aug 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 2.84
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 20 Aug 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 20 Aug 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.4% High
48-hr change: -0.2%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 20 Aug 2020 @ 1600 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 1.5 nT
Bz: 1.2 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 20 Aug 20

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole could affect Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 23.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds NLC season is underway. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected a blue cloud over the north pole on May 17th--one of the earliest starts in the spacecraft's14 year history. Check here for daily images from AIM.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Aug 20 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
10 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
20 %
20 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
10 %
10 %
 
Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Safe aurora tours: Thinking of a visit to Norway? Marianne's Heaven on Earth Aurora Tours has a 7-seater minivan for families who don't require social distancing. See the Northern Lights or take a scenic day tour. Book here

 

RESEARCHERS PREDICT A SURGE OF COSMIC RAYS: Interplanetary space is about to become a more dangerous place. A new study just published in the research journal Space Weather predicts that galactic cosmic rays will surge in the decades ahead--a result of the sputtering solar cycle. This could limit deep space missions for astronauts to as little as 200 days. FULL STORY.

A CME IS COMING--MAYBE: Sometime today, a CME (coronal mass ejection) might hit Earth. The solar storm cloud was hurled into space on Aug. 16th by a slow-motion solar flare in the sun's southern hemisphere. Click to play a NOAA forecast model of the CME sweeping past Earth on Aug. 20th:

As the forecast animation shows, the CME was never heading directly for us. The bulk of the plasma cloud is expected to sail to the south of our planet. However, its outer edge could graze Earth's magnetic field, and that might be enough to spark a minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storm. There's also a chance the CME will miss, and space weather will remain quiet. Either way, high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on August 20th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

COSMIC RAY DATA--DELIVERED BY MULE: For the past 6 years, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have been launching balloons to the stratosphere, monitoring cosmic rays. Almost every data point we collect has a story behind it. This one involves a mule.


Above: The view from the landing site of our July 23, 2020, cosmic ray balloon.

On July 23rd, we launched a balloon as usual. It carried 4 cosmic ray sensors, GPS trackers, a flight computer, and a dozen pepper seeds (a student astrobiology project). The payload flew 35.8 km high--one of our highest flights ever. After the balloon popped, the adventure began. The payload hurtled downward briefly faster than 500 mph. The parachute opened, arresting its fall, and proceeded to guide the payload ... WAY OFF COURSE. The payload was supposed to land in the Buttermilks, a popular climbing area near Bishop, California, where we could easily retrieve it. Instead it touched down almost 40 miles away in the remote Sierra Nevada mountains.

As we began to make our plans to hike in and get it--a 2 day, 60 mile expedition-- something strange happened. The payload started moving again. Little did we know at the time, it was on the back of a mule.


Above: The red circled data point was delivered by Mule Train

About 15 minutes after the payload came to rest in the Sierra backcountry, it was discovered by Will Ellis, a packer from Sierra Pack Station leading a train of mules along the John Muir trail. "It was only two feet from the trail," he says. "What are the odds?"

Will strapped the payload to the back of his lead mule, and proceeded to carry it almost 50 miles from the landing site to Red's Meadow, just outside Mammoth Lakes, CA. From there, Will phoned Earth to Sky and returned the payload to some very grateful young scientists.

Thank you Will Ellis and the Sierra Pack Station for helping us with our research!

THE NORTHERN LIGHTS PENDANT: On Dec. 6, 2019, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon to the stratosphere. This Northern Lights pendant went along for the ride, flying more than 107,612 feet above the rugged Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:

You can have it for $119.95. The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. It makes an out-of-this-world birthday, anniversary, or Christmas gift!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On August 20, 2020, the network reported 20 fireballs.
(18 sporadics, 1 Perseid, 1 Southern Delta Aquariid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On August 20, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 QJ
2020-Aug-15
4.1 LD
4.7
16
2020 QG
2020-Aug-16
0 LD
12.3
4
2020 PJ2
2020-Aug-16
5.1 LD
10
15
2020 QF1
2020-Aug-16
1.5 LD
13.3
7
2020 QF2
2020-Aug-18
0.5 LD
10.8
9
2020 PU1
2020-Aug-18
6.2 LD
8.3
18
2020 QW
2020-Aug-18
4.6 LD
10.3
32
2020 QE1
2020-Aug-18
16.9 LD
6.4
17
2020 QY
2020-Aug-18
3.3 LD
16.1
33
2020 QC
2020-Aug-18
2 LD
18.8
11
2020 PS
2020-Aug-19
6.2 LD
8.8
46
2020 QO1
2020-Aug-20
3.7 LD
26.5
12
2020 PY2
2020-Aug-20
0.9 LD
16.8
16
2020 PQ2
2020-Aug-21
4.6 LD
19.7
49
2020 QP
2020-Aug-21
16.1 LD
24.7
56
2020 QF
2020-Aug-23
9 LD
6.9
13
2020 FA1
2020-Aug-23
18.4 LD
1.9
20
2020 QD1
2020-Aug-23
10.1 LD
13.5
16
2020 PP3
2020-Aug-24
16.2 LD
9.5
37
2020 PJ6
2020-Aug-24
13.9 LD
3.3
28
2020 QE2
2020-Aug-25
19.9 LD
12.6
38
2020 QP1
2020-Aug-25
19.7 LD
8.8
21
2016 AH164
2020-Aug-26
15.7 LD
5.6
4
2020 PF3
2020-Aug-26
6.4 LD
9.6
28
2020 QQ2
2020-Aug-27
8.6 LD
6.2
16
2011 ES4
2020-Sep-01
0.3 LD
8.2
30
2020 PG6
2020-Sep-02
5.9 LD
6.6
14
465824
2020-Sep-06
19.4 LD
14
162
2020 PT4
2020-Sep-08
4.9 LD
12.6
39
2012 RM15
2020-Sep-12
14.9 LD
9.8
45
2017 US
2020-Sep-13
17.3 LD
5.9
21
2020 QL2
2020-Sep-14
18 LD
10.6
77
2014 QJ33
2020-Sep-18
11.5 LD
8.3
65
2017 SL16
2020-Sep-20
8.9 LD
6.4
25
2001 GP2
2020-Oct-01
6.1 LD
2.2
15
2010 UC
2020-Oct-04
14.6 LD
3.2
12
2019 SB6
2020-Oct-07
11.9 LD
7.6
16
2018 GD2
2020-Oct-13
16.4 LD
6.7
5
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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