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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 356.8 km/sec
density: 8.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2
1751 UT Oct21
24-hr: A3
2344 UT Oct20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 21 Oct 20
A new sunspot is growing at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 11
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 21 Oct 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 204 days (69%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 21 Oct 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.80
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 21 Oct 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 75 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 21 Oct 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.4% High
48-hr change: -0.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 21 Oct 2020 @ 1600 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4
unsettled
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.9 nT
Bz: -0.9 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 21 Oct 20

Solar wind flowing from this network of coronal holes will buffet Earth's magnetic field from Oct. 21st through 25th.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern-hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has ended. The southern season begins in November. Between now and then, Earth has no noctilucent clouds.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Oct 21 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
40 %
40 %
MINOR
30 %
30 %
SEVERE
10 %
10 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
05 %
MINOR
25 %
25 %
SEVERE
65 %
65 %
 
Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Safe aurora tours: Thinking of a visit to Norway? Marianne's Heaven on Earth Aurora Tours has a 7-seater minivan for families who don't require social distancing. See the Northern Lights or take a scenic day tour. Book here

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Oct. 22-23 when a high-speed stream of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a northern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Bright auroras may be seen in Alaska, Canada, and the countries of Scandinavia. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

EXTREME LUNAR LIBRATION: One of the most beautiful landmarks on the Moon is almost completely invisible from Earth. Mare Orientale, located on the extreme western edge of the Moon, is a cosmic bullseye 600 miles wide. Usually you have to be in lunar orbit to photograph the dramatic impact basin. On Oct. 11th, amateur astronomer Howard Eskildsen did it from Ocala, Florida:

"It is a rare privilege to see this much of Orientale basin," says Eskildsen. "I was able to do it thanks to an extreme episode of lunar libration."

Most of us learned in school that the same side of the Moon always faces Earth. That's not entirely true. The Moon actually wobbles back and forth, rocking and rolling as it elliptically orbits Earth. These lunar librations allow us to "peek around the edges." Over time, up to 59% of the lunar surface can be observed from Earth.

"A libration big enough to reveal this much of Mare Orientale in sunlight occurs only a few times every 5-10 years," says Eskildsen. "Another favorable libration occurs on November 29, 2021. After that, the libration shifts to other areas of the Moon and Orientale is not favorably librated again until around September of 2026."

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

CAPT. KIRK BOBBLEHEAD (COLLECTOR'S ITEM): To support their crowdfunded research program, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have launched James T. Kirk to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray balloon. Note the moon over Kirk's shoulder in this photo taken 36 km (118,100 ft) above Earth's surface:

You can have him for $170.10. The price is the serial number of the Enterprise, NCC1701, divided by 10. The students are selling Kirk to buy more helium! He comes with a greeting card showing the high-quality resin bobblehead in flight and telling the story of his journey to the stratosphere and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Oct. 21, 2020, the network reported 49 fireballs.
(29 sporadics, 18 Orionids, 1 Southern Taurid, 1 epsilon Geminid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On October 21, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 UA1
2020-Oct-16
5.9 LD
21.9
51
2020 UZ2
2020-Oct-16
5.1 LD
10
14
2020 TE2
2020-Oct-16
6.4 LD
5.8
20
2020 TQ3
2020-Oct-16
9.6 LD
5.6
18
2020 TH3
2020-Oct-16
5 LD
5.1
21
2020 UU1
2020-Oct-16
1.1 LD
12.9
7
2020 TV7
2020-Oct-16
4.5 LD
12.8
16
2020 UW
2020-Oct-17
10.4 LD
8.8
13
2020 TG
2020-Oct-17
16.8 LD
5.8
27
2020 TX4
2020-Oct-17
1.6 LD
10.5
10
2020 TG6
2020-Oct-17
0.4 LD
18.8
5
2020 TF7
2020-Oct-17
5 LD
7.9
7
2020 TK3
2020-Oct-17
1.3 LD
11.1
12
2020 UK2
2020-Oct-18
3.8 LD
8
14
2020 UT2
2020-Oct-18
10.5 LD
10.1
25
2020 TH6
2020-Oct-18
1.8 LD
6.5
6
2020 TE6
2020-Oct-18
0.6 LD
10.7
11
2020 TR6
2020-Oct-18
4.2 LD
15
10
2020 TJ6
2020-Oct-19
3.3 LD
11.3
11
2020 UX
2020-Oct-19
0.5 LD
8.7
2
2020 TD6
2020-Oct-19
2.7 LD
6.3
8
2020 UK
2020-Oct-19
16.3 LD
6
15
2020 TF6
2020-Oct-19
0.4 LD
12.7
11
2020 TJ2
2020-Oct-19
5.3 LD
14.6
29
2020 UT
2020-Oct-20
19.7 LD
7
12
2020 UQ
2020-Oct-20
5.1 LD
15.7
15
2020 UC
2020-Oct-20
3.7 LD
7.9
11
2020 UR
2020-Oct-20
3.5 LD
12.6
10
2020 UB
2020-Oct-20
1.9 LD
10.6
9
2020 UB1
2020-Oct-20
8.9 LD
8.4
44
2020 TC3
2020-Oct-20
13.4 LD
12.2
39
2020 TW6
2020-Oct-20
10.8 LD
9.6
27
2020 UP1
2020-Oct-20
16.5 LD
17.3
27
2020 SG3
2020-Oct-20
19.5 LD
5.3
38
2020 UA
2020-Oct-21
0.1 LD
7.8
7
2020 UY
2020-Oct-21
0.9 LD
7
6
2020 US
2020-Oct-21
2.2 LD
13.6
13
2020 TM6
2020-Oct-21
9.5 LD
8.6
21
2018 VG
2020-Oct-21
15.1 LD
6.7
12
2017 UH5
2020-Oct-21
9.3 LD
6.1
18
2020 UL2
2020-Oct-22
1.1 LD
7.5
6
2020 UY2
2020-Oct-22
5.1 LD
12.7
13
2020 TK6
2020-Oct-22
4.7 LD
7.9
19
2020 UV
2020-Oct-22
1.3 LD
8.3
13
2020 TX1
2020-Oct-22
16.1 LD
7.9
23
2020 TG1
2020-Oct-22
18.4 LD
13.7
63
2020 UK1
2020-Oct-23
13.5 LD
9
28
2020 TK4
2020-Oct-23
8.6 LD
8.9
19
2020 TT5
2020-Oct-23
5.1 LD
4.9
14
2020 UG
2020-Oct-23
5.9 LD
7.1
17
2017 TK6
2020-Oct-24
17.4 LD
12.5
41
2020 UM1
2020-Oct-25
10.7 LD
15.1
24
2008 GM2
2020-Oct-25
17.7 LD
3.6
8
2020 QD5
2020-Oct-26
10.1 LD
8.6
80
2020 TD8
2020-Oct-27
1.6 LD
7.6
14
2005 UV64
2020-Oct-27
19.3 LD
3.5
18
2020 TQ2
2020-Oct-27
16.3 LD
5.2
26
2020 TR5
2020-Oct-28
4 LD
8.8
20
2020 TS5
2020-Oct-28
9.4 LD
5.7
21
2020 UN1
2020-Oct-28
4.1 LD
10.1
29
2020 TM7
2020-Oct-28
5.4 LD
12.9
27
2020 OK5
2020-Oct-29
6.4 LD
1.3
29
2020 TO8
2020-Oct-29
14.7 LD
8.9
26
2020 TR2
2020-Oct-29
8.8 LD
14.5
55
2018 VP1
2020-Nov-02
1.1 LD
9.7
2
2020 UA3
2020-Nov-03
5.6 LD
6
16
2020 HF4
2020-Nov-03
16.2 LD
2.9
11
2020 UR2
2020-Nov-04
13.9 LD
4.7
27
2020 UM2
2020-Nov-04
14.9 LD
2.8
13
2010 JL88
2020-Nov-05
10.5 LD
15.7
16
2020 UW2
2020-Nov-06
14.7 LD
6.2
39
2020 TY1
2020-Nov-07
14.7 LD
13
108
2019 XS
2020-Nov-07
15.5 LD
9.4
51
2018 VS4
2020-Nov-09
14.9 LD
10.1
25
2020 ST1
2020-Nov-14
19.1 LD
8.1
156
2019 VL5
2020-Nov-15
8.5 LD
8.2
23
2017 WJ16
2020-Nov-23
5 LD
4.8
49
2020 TJ8
2020-Nov-24
16.8 LD
4.6
32
2018 RQ4
2020-Nov-26
8.1 LD
7.4
15
2020 KZ2
2020-Nov-28
5.7 LD
3.9
10
153201
2020-Nov-29
11.2 LD
25.1
490
2020 SO
2020-Dec-01
0.1 LD
3.9
7
2019 XH2
2020-Dec-02
16.1 LD
6.4
6
2018 PK21
2020-Dec-08
12.2 LD
3.1
23
2019 XQ1
2020-Dec-13
18.4 LD
8.6
30
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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