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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 526.3 km/sec
density: 8.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6
2154 UT Dec23
24-hr: B6
2154 UT Dec23
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 23 Dec 20
A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 11
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 23 Dec 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 208 days (58%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 23 Dec 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 6.46
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 23 Dec 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 86 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 23 Dec 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +8.9% High
48-hr change: +0.5%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 23 Dec 2020 @ 1700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4
unsettled
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.0 nT
Bz: -0.9 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 23 Dec 20

Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from this northern coronal hole. .
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds has begun, with a long overdue first appearance on Dec. 8th. Normally the onset occurs in November. This is a by-product of strange weather over Antarctica. Now that the season has begun, electric blue clouds should completely ring the South Pole within a week to 10 days.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Dec 23 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
40 %
30 %
MINOR
30 %
15 %
SEVERE
10 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
15 %
MINOR
25 %
30 %
SEVERE
65 %
45 %
 
Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Safe aurora tours: Thinking of a visit to Norway? Marianne's Heaven on Earth Aurora Tours has a 7-seater minivan for families who don't require social distancing. See the Northern Lights or take a scenic day tour. Book here

 

GEOMAGNETIC CHRISTMAS LIGHTS: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storms on Dec. 24th and 25th as Earth passes through a stream of high-speed solar wind. The gaseous material is flowing from a northern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Auroras for Christmas, anyone? Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

URSID METEOR OUTBURST: The annual Ursid meteor shower peaked on Dec. 22nd. Normally, the shower produces only a handful of meteors per hour--but this year was not normal. "We experienced great Ursid meteor activity last night with an outburst of meteors between 0300-0400 UT," reports Paul Martin of Beaghmore, Northern Ireland. Here is one of the unexpected fireballs:

"In all, we counted 72 Ursids between 0100 and 0530 UT," says Martin.

"This is my personal highest Ursid count to date," adds Martin McKenna, who observed the shower alongside Martin. "On several occasions we observed two Ursids at the same time, and we also witnessed three fireballs."

What happened? Ursid meteors are debris from Comet 8P/Tuttle. This year, Earth passed unusually close to two streams of debris, one deposited by the comet in 815 AD and another in 829 AD. These 1200-year-old streams produced the outburst.

Realtime Meteor Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE GREAT CONJUNCTION OF JUPITER AND SATURN: It's over. Jupiter and Saturn are separating after their 800-year close encounter on Dec. 21st. These sky watchers in Florida will never forget what they saw:

"What a wonderful opportunity to share this beautiful conjunction with my wife Sandy and son Brett!" says amateur astronomer Bill Williams. "We were in Boca Raton, but my telescope was miles away in Chiefland. So after I photographed Sandy and Brett enjoying the show, I dashed inside to take the inset close-up by remote control. No one said this hobby was easy!"

More images of the Great Conjunction may be found in the Realtime Photo Gallery:

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is this week. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons. From now until Christmas, all gifts are 10% off:

Carried aloft by giant helium balloons, these unique gifts have flown above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out.

All items come with a greeting card showing the gifts in flight, and telling the story of their journey to the edge of space and back again. Don't forget to enter coupon code "SPACESANTA" at checkout for a 10% holiday discount!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Dec. 23, 2020, the network reported 37 fireballs.
(28 sporadics, 5 Ursids, 4 Leonis Minorids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On December 23, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 YF
2020-Dec-18
1.2 LD
3.1
6
2020 XX3
2020-Dec-18
0.1 LD
5.9
7
2020 YM
2020-Dec-18
13.6 LD
7.9
16
2020 XF3
2020-Dec-18
18.2 LD
7.6
26
2020 YL2
2020-Dec-18
2 LD
14.2
38
2020 YR2
2020-Dec-19
0.5 LD
7.3
8
2020 YL
2020-Dec-20
12 LD
7.3
14
2020 YU
2020-Dec-20
3.2 LD
17.6
28
2020 YC1
2020-Dec-20
14.7 LD
6
16
2020 YS2
2020-Dec-20
0.2 LD
4
2
2020 YG
2020-Dec-20
1.2 LD
9.2
8
1997 XE10
2020-Dec-20
13.3 LD
7.2
36
2020 YN1
2020-Dec-20
4.2 LD
6.6
7
2020 XY4
2020-Dec-20
2.1 LD
9.6
15
2020 YJ2
2020-Dec-21
0.9 LD
14.3
12
2020 YB
2020-Dec-21
2.3 LD
4.7
6
2017 XQ60
2020-Dec-21
10.8 LD
15.6
47
2020 XA3
2020-Dec-21
12.7 LD
15
44
2020 XH6
2020-Dec-22
6.4 LD
9.1
15
2020 YP
2020-Dec-22
15.2 LD
10.6
43
2020 YN2
2020-Dec-22
1 LD
13.2
7
2020 XJ3
2020-Dec-23
5.1 LD
6.2
26
2020 YB1
2020-Dec-23
7.9 LD
12.4
15
2020 YE
2020-Dec-23
10.2 LD
20.1
53
2011 CL50
2020-Dec-24
3.1 LD
3.4
11
2020 YM1
2020-Dec-25
1.7 LD
3.2
4
2020 XY
2020-Dec-25
15.7 LD
5.7
28
501647
2020-Dec-25
7.9 LD
10
123
2018 XE4
2020-Dec-26
5.6 LD
9.4
19
2020 YC
2020-Dec-26
14.2 LD
6.5
23
2020 YH1
2020-Dec-26
10.4 LD
6.6
13
2020 XT2
2020-Dec-26
13.1 LD
5.2
41
2012 XE133
2020-Dec-26
12.1 LD
9.1
74
2016 AF2
2020-Dec-27
7.3 LD
5.3
9
2020 XZ4
2020-Dec-29
5.4 LD
8.7
38
2012 UK171
2020-Dec-30
15.5 LD
4.7
47
2019 YB4
2021-Jan-02
16.8 LD
7.2
16
2020 YA1
2021-Jan-03
4.1 LD
3.7
16
2003 AF23
2021-Jan-03
18.3 LD
15.8
235
2019 QW2
2021-Jan-03
8.8 LD
4.9
39
2012 BT1
2021-Jan-04
13.6 LD
7.7
12
2016 CO247
2021-Jan-06
19.3 LD
16.7
282
2018 KP1
2021-Jan-06
8.2 LD
4.4
34
332446
2021-Jan-06
9.6 LD
11
408
2015 NU13
2021-Jan-09
14.8 LD
15.1
408
2020 RO6
2021-Jan-11
19.5 LD
7.9
107
2013 YS2
2021-Jan-11
18.2 LD
3.7
78
2017 QW1
2021-Jan-15
17.8 LD
4
20
65717
2021-Jan-17
18.5 LD
3.6
246
2020 WT5
2021-Jan-20
19.6 LD
8.6
131
2020 XB7
2021-Jan-22
7.2 LD
8.4
50
2018 BX
2021-Jan-22
8.9 LD
6.1
5
2020 PP
2021-Jan-23
18.2 LD
8.4
218
2018 BA3
2021-Jan-25
1.5 LD
8.1
20
468727
2021-Jan-25
15.8 LD
14.9
257
2020 TB12
2021-Feb-01
6.8 LD
8.9
158
2016 CL136
2021-Feb-01
13.8 LD
18.1
186
2020 SO
2021-Feb-02
0.6 LD
1.8
7
2018 PN22
2021-Feb-05
12.8 LD
2.5
11
2018 CH2
2021-Feb-05
14.6 LD
9.9
9
2018 RB
2021-Feb-07
18.3 LD
22.5
155
2008 DB
2021-Feb-10
13.1 LD
6
25
2019 YP5
2021-Feb-10
8.2 LD
13.5
123
2020 CX1
2021-Feb-18
4.9 LD
8.3
54
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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