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CHANCE OF FLARES THIS WEEKEND: The sun is crackling with M-class solar flares. There were five of them yesterday, none stronger than M2. This kind of low-level M-class flaring keeps Earth's upper atmosphere in an enhanced state of ionization without actually causing a major space weather event. NOAA forecasters say there is a 50% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
SUPERFLARES ON SUN-LIKE STARS: Now we have to worry about superflares. A new study published yesterday in Science concludes that sun-like stars in the Milky Way produce superflares approximately once every 100 years. Superflares are solar flares more than ~50 times stronger than the Carrington Event. If one hit Earth, it could bring down power grids, disable satellite networks, and more.
An X1-class solar flare on the sun. A superflare could be hundreds of times stronger
Led by Valeriy Vasilyev of the Max Planck Institut in Göttingen, Germany, a team of 10 astronomers looked at brightness measurements of 56,450 sun-like stars--far more than any previous study. The data were collected by NASA's Kepler space telescope between 2009 and 2018.
"We identified 2889 superflares on 2527 sun-like stars," they wrote in the paper. "This detection rate indicates that superflares with energies >1034 erg occur roughly once per century on stars with sun-like temperature and variability."
Previous studies of sun-like stars reached very different conclusions. "Those studies found frequencies approximately two orders of magnitude lower than our measurements," the authors acknowledge. In other words, superflares would be expected only once every 1,000 to 10,000 years--a relatively safe interval.
Right: NASA's Kepler space telescope
This new study may be superior, however. Improved techniques for analyzing Kepler data allowed the team to search for flares from tens of thousands of stars excluded from previous studies. Indeed, they found 1941 superflares never before noticed in Kepler's data set.
In the Science paper, the authors compare flares according to their energy in ergs. A superflare is any flare >1034 erg. The Carrington solar flare (Sept. 1, 1859) was ~5 × 1032 erg, while the strongest flare of the Space Age (Oct. 28, 2003) registered 7 × 1032 erg.
These dates and energies tell us that Earth has *not* been hit by a superflare in the past century or so. However, that doesn't mean the study is wrong. We could simply be overdue. Or the sun may be less active than other sun-like stars.
This is the key plot from the new paper. Note how the rate of superflares from Kepler stars (orange) exceeds what is expected from an extrapolation of solar data (green). [full caption]
"If our sample of sun-like stars is representative of the sun's future behavior, it is substantially more likely to produce a superflare than was previously thought," the researchers say. A big IF... but at the same time, disturbingly plausible.
Read the original research here.
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CHRISTMAS GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec 14, 2024, the network reported 200 fireballs.
(158 Geminids, 39 sporadics, 3 December Monocerotids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On December 14, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2024 XH3 | 2024-Dec-09 | 2.4 LD | 8.5 | 10 |
| 2024 VE13 | 2024-Dec-09 | 18 LD | 10.2 | 65 |
| 2024 WV51 | 2024-Dec-09 | 1.8 LD | 23.5 | 33 |
| 2024 XG2 | 2024-Dec-09 | 8.9 LD | 12 | 12 |
| 2024 XG10 | 2024-Dec-09 | 5.2 LD | 5.9 | 13 |
| 2024 XP2 | 2024-Dec-09 | 16 LD | 21.2 | 45 |
| 2024 XT16 | 2024-Dec-09 | 1.6 LD | 11.9 | 16 |
| 2021 XB6 | 2024-Dec-09 | 5.3 LD | 15.4 | 55 |
| 2024 WZ13 | 2024-Dec-10 | 6.9 LD | 8.9 | 20 |
| 2024 XA17 | 2024-Dec-10 | 17.1 LD | 15.3 | 79 |
| 2024 WS17 | 2024-Dec-10 | 4.7 LD | 8.3 | 16 |
| 2024 XL11 | 2024-Dec-11 | 3.1 LD | 11 | 6 |
| 2024 XJ5 | 2024-Dec-11 | 19.8 LD | 10.9 | 27 |
| 2024 XZ11 | 2024-Dec-11 | 12.3 LD | 10.6 | 23 |
| 2018 XU3 | 2024-Dec-11 | 16.8 LD | 10.8 | 28 |
| 2024 XK1 | 2024-Dec-11 | 4.9 LD | 7.5 | 10 |
| 2024 WB14 | 2024-Dec-11 | 18 LD | 6.5 | 28 |
| 2007 XB23 | 2024-Dec-11 | 2.3 LD | 4.7 | 14 |
| 2024 XS16 | 2024-Dec-11 | 0.1 LD | 18.6 | 3 |
| 2024 WP11 | 2024-Dec-12 | 15.6 LD | 8.6 | 22 |
| 2024 XS | 2024-Dec-12 | 8.3 LD | 25.6 | 30 |
| 2024 XF9 | 2024-Dec-12 | 2 LD | 6.5 | 9 |
| 2024 WD18 | 2024-Dec-13 | 19.9 LD | 9 | 32 |
| 2024 XW15 | 2024-Dec-13 | 17 LD | 11.6 | 66 |
| 2024 XC16 | 2024-Dec-13 | 13.8 LD | 20.7 | 32 |
| 2024 XU9 | 2024-Dec-14 | 13.6 LD | 16.3 | 34 |
| 2024 XB16 | 2024-Dec-15 | 5.5 LD | 7.8 | 15 |
| 2024 XF4 | 2024-Dec-15 | 18.3 LD | 14.5 | 63 |
| 2024 XY5 | 2024-Dec-16 | 9.1 LD | 4.8 | 23 |
| 2024 XB6 | 2024-Dec-16 | 17.5 LD | 6.6 | 18 |
| 2024 XV6 | 2024-Dec-16 | 17.5 LD | 10.7 | 11 |
| 2024 XE16 | 2024-Dec-16 | 17.7 LD | 3.7 | 47 |
| 2024 VE7 | 2024-Dec-16 | 7.3 LD | 8 | 45 |
| 2022 YO1 | 2024-Dec-17 | 2 LD | 14.3 | 4 |
| 2024 XR6 | 2024-Dec-17 | 15.3 LD | 5.6 | 16 |
| 2024 XC17 | 2024-Dec-17 | 8.1 LD | 4.8 | 12 |
| 2024 XS3 | 2024-Dec-18 | 8.7 LD | 10.5 | 27 |
| 2020 XY4 | 2024-Dec-19 | 12.8 LD | 8.8 | 14 |
| 2024 XN15 | 2024-Dec-21 | 9.9 LD | 9.7 | 19 |
| 2024 XQ4 | 2024-Dec-21 | 2.8 LD | 13.2 | 16 |
| 2024 XN1 | 2024-Dec-24 | 18.9 LD | 6.6 | 39 |
| 2017 YD2 | 2024-Dec-27 | 18 LD | 9.9 | 6 |
| 2024 AV2 | 2024-Dec-31 | 6.7 LD | 7.8 | 17 |
| 2024 XP10 | 2025-Jan-02 | 19.8 LD | 8.4 | 39 |
| 2021 AO4 | 2025-Jan-04 | 6.9 LD | 15.1 | 11 |
| 2020 BC6 | 2025-Jan-05 | 9.6 LD | 22.2 | 248 |
| 2024 BM1 | 2025-Jan-08 | 11.5 LD | 9.1 | 22 |
| 2024 PT5 | 2025-Jan-09 | 4.7 LD | 1 | 12 |
| 2023 OS3 | 2025-Jan-09 | 19.9 LD | 3.1 | 10 |
| 2012 UK171 | 2025-Jan-11 | 10.7 LD | 6.4 | 46 |
| 2023 OS | 2025-Jan-15 | 16.6 LD | 10.9 | 48 |
| 2022 CE2 | 2025-Jan-16 | 11.1 LD | 13.3 | 120 |
| 2022 OB5 | 2025-Jan-18 | 8.9 LD | 1.4 | 6 |
| 2024 WY70 | 2025-Jan-18 | 16.5 LD | 10.2 | 261 |
| 2022 BX6 | 2025-Jan-28 | 19.7 LD | 14.3 | 24 |
| 2015 DJ155 | 2025-Jan-31 | 18.6 LD | 9.2 | 56 |
| 2022 AV4 | 2025-Feb-03 | 16.8 LD | 3.4 | 25 |
| 2018 RE3 | 2025-Feb-03 | 15.5 LD | 11.1 | 12 |
| 2002 CC14 | 2025-Feb-04 | 8.4 LD | 12.7 | 39 |
| 2016 CO248 | 2025-Feb-07 | 13.5 LD | 5.9 | 11 |
| 2020 GZ2 | 2025-Feb-07 | 17.7 LD | 8.9 | 9 |
| 2022 PK1 | 2025-Feb-07 | 15 LD | 11 | 33 |
| 2012 PB20 | 2025-Feb-09 | 3.5 LD | 4.3 | 37 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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