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ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION IS PLUMMETING: Cosmic rays in our atmosphere just hit a 10-year low. The sharp decline is shown in this dataset of more than 300 high-altitude balloon flights over California from 2015 to 2024:
According to the data, atmospheric radiation has been dropping about 10% per year for the past three years, resulting in a nearly 1/3rd decrease overall. The decline isn't only in the stratosphere. It is also filtering down to aviation altitudes. This means air travelers are absorbing less radiation when they fly.
At first glance, this seems counterintuitive. NASA and NOAA recently announced that Solar Maximum has arrived, bringing solar activity to 10+ year high. So why is radiation decreasing? Answer: We're not measuring radiation from the sun. This radiation comes from deep space.
Supernova explosions and other violent events fill the Milky Way with high energy particles called "galactic cosmic rays." These subatomic cannonballs penetrate the walls of spacecraft and pose a long-term health threat to astronauts. They're actually worse than solar flares.
An artist's concept of galactic cosmic rays hitting Earth. [Learn more]
When galactic cosmic rays hit the top of Earth's atmosphere, they create a spray of secondary cosmic rays, which we measure using radiation sensors and high-altitude balloons. "We" means Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus. It's a STEM program that started more than a decade ago, teaching kids how to do science and manage a DIY space program.
Galactic cosmic rays are decreasing because of Solar Maximum. Over the past few years, the sun's magnetic field has grown stronger and more complex as the solar cycle reaches its peak. This makes it harder for cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system, and accounts for the decrease we have observed.
Who cares? Astronauts, obviously. The European Space Agency calls galactic cosmic rays "a show stopper" for Mars exploration. Air travelers are also affected. A 2018 Harvard study cited cosmic rays as a risk factor for cancer in flight crews. There are also controversial studies linking cosmic rays to cardiac arrhythmia (Google it).
At the moment, there is no sign of the decline slowing down. Stay tuned for more data as we continue to launch balloons into Solar Cycle 25.
Would you like to support our balloon program? Buy a Christmas gift from the Earth to Sky Store :)
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BLACK FRIDAY AT THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.
Carried aloft by giant helium balloons, these unique gifts have flown above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out.
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 19, 2024, the network reported 14 fireballs.
(7 Leonids, 6 sporadics, 1 Northern Taurid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On November 20, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2024 UE13 | 2024-Nov-15 | 19.7 LD | 7.9 | 27 |
| 2024 VK3 | 2024-Nov-16 | 1.1 LD | 11.1 | 12 |
| 2024 VS3 | 2024-Nov-16 | 4.3 LD | 13.1 | 22 |
| 2024 VC4 | 2024-Nov-16 | 6.5 LD | 19.3 | 29 |
| 2024 VZ2 | 2024-Nov-17 | 3.3 LD | 10.2 | 22 |
| 2024 UC5 | 2024-Nov-17 | 10.8 LD | 4.2 | 20 |
| 2024 VT3 | 2024-Nov-18 | 12.6 LD | 12.3 | 42 |
| 2024 WC | 2024-Nov-18 | 1.3 LD | 19.3 | 12 |
| 2023 WK3 | 2024-Nov-18 | 16.1 LD | 14.5 | 272 |
| 2024 UZ10 | 2024-Nov-18 | 11.6 LD | 13.2 | 48 |
| 2024 VQ4 | 2024-Nov-19 | 14.2 LD | 14.6 | 99 |
| 2024 VU2 | 2024-Nov-19 | 15.1 LD | 8.7 | 40 |
| 2012 KO11 | 2024-Nov-20 | 6.2 LD | 9.4 | 43 |
| 2024 UW9 | 2024-Nov-20 | 13.5 LD | 14.8 | 46 |
| 2020 VX4 | 2024-Nov-20 | 10.5 LD | 10.5 | 11 |
| 2010 WC | 2024-Nov-21 | 1.9 LD | 9.1 | 31 |
| 2024 VY2 | 2024-Nov-24 | 16.3 LD | 13.2 | 53 |
| 2009 WB105 | 2024-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 |
| 2006 WB | 2024-Nov-26 | 2.3 LD | 4.2 | 98 |
| 2018 DC4 | 2024-Nov-29 | 18.8 LD | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2019 JN2 | 2024-Nov-30 | 9.4 LD | 7.7 | 25 |
| 2021 XZ | 2024-Dec-02 | 13.2 LD | 7.4 | 8 |
| 447755 | 2024-Dec-03 | 14.4 LD | 12.2 | 402 |
| 2020 XR | 2024-Dec-04 | 5.8 LD | 12.3 | 388 |
| 2021 WA5 | 2024-Dec-05 | 9.8 LD | 5.9 | 12 |
| 2024 UU3 | 2024-Dec-08 | 16.9 LD | 4.8 | 38 |
| 2018 XU3 | 2024-Dec-11 | 16.8 LD | 10.8 | 28 |
| 2007 XB23 | 2024-Dec-11 | 1.2 LD | 4.8 | 14 |
| 2022 YO1 | 2024-Dec-17 | 2 LD | 14.3 | 4 |
| 2020 XY4 | 2024-Dec-19 | 12.8 LD | 8.8 | 14 |
| 2017 YD2 | 2024-Dec-27 | 18 LD | 9.9 | 6 |
| 2024 AV2 | 2024-Dec-31 | 6.7 LD | 7.8 | 17 |
| 2021 AO4 | 2025-Jan-04 | 6.9 LD | 15.1 | 11 |
| 2020 BC6 | 2025-Jan-05 | 9.6 LD | 22.2 | 248 |
| 2024 BM1 | 2025-Jan-08 | 11.5 LD | 9.1 | 22 |
| 2024 PT5 | 2025-Jan-09 | 4.7 LD | 1 | 12 |
| 2023 OS3 | 2025-Jan-09 | 19.9 LD | 3.1 | 10 |
| 2012 UK171 | 2025-Jan-11 | 10.7 LD | 6.4 | 46 |
| 2023 OS | 2025-Jan-15 | 16.6 LD | 10.9 | 48 |
| 2022 CE2 | 2025-Jan-16 | 11.1 LD | 13.3 | 120 |
| 2022 OB5 | 2025-Jan-18 | 8.9 LD | 1.4 | 6 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
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| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | the underlying science of space weather |
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