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TWO CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Confirmed: Two CMEs are now heading for Earth following consecutive X-flares (X7.1 and X9.1) from active sunspot AR3842. According to NOAA and NASA models, the first will strike Earth on Oct 4th and the second (more potent) will strike on Oct. 6th. The dual impacts could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
THE STRONGEST FLARE YET (UPDATED): Sunspot AR3842 exploded again today, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the X9.1-category blast:
Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as a half an hour after 12:18 UTC.
Of greater interest is the CME. SOHO coronagraph images show a halo CME emerging from the blast site:
According to a NASA model, this CME will strike Earth on Oct. 6th, adding its effect to that of an earlier CME expected to arrive on Oct. 4th or 5th. Auroras are therefore likely this weekend. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
more images: from John Candy of Whitley Bay, UK; from Philippe Tosi of Nîmes, France; from David Strange of Salcombe Regis, East Devon, UK; from Pepe Manteca of Begues, Catalonia, Spain; from Warren Spreng of Mason, Ohio
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A 'NIGHT LIGHT' FROM THE STRATOSPHERE: Looking for an out-of-this-world gift? Consider the Full Moon Night Light. On Jan. 4th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew the glowing globe to the stratosphere on board a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $149.95. The surface of the sphere is a 3D-printed topo-map of the Moon, tracing every major crater and mountain range. It is also a night light. A built-in USB-rechargeable battery provides up to 20 hours of soothing illumination.
The glowing orb comes with a greeting card showing the Moon in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. Sales support the Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray ballooning program and hands-on STEM research.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
A COMET OVER EASTER ISLAND: Retired biologist Eliot Herman traveled all the way to the South Pacific to see yesterday's solar eclipse. That's not all he saw. "I am at Easter Island where we witnessed Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (C/2023 A3) rising at dawn on eclipse day," he says.
"It was a wonderful view in morning twilight where perhaps 1000 years ago the natives of this island also saw bright comets rising over their Moai," he says.
For the past week, astronomers around the world have been photographing Tsuchinshan-ATLAS in the early morning sky. Soon, mornings will no longer be an option. The comet is sinking back toward the sun as it transitions to the evening sky next week. On Oct. 9th and 10th, the comet will pass between Earth and the sun. Sunlight forward scattered by comet dust could amplify the comet's brightness, making it visible even in broad daylight. Stay tuned!
more images: from Frank A. Rodriguez of Gran Canaria island, Canary Islands; from Alan Dyer of Monument Valley, Arizona ; from Malcolm Park of Magdalena New Mexico; from Fabrizio Melandri of Perito Moreno, Argentina; from Luke O'Brien of Eaglehawk Neck, Tasmania;
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On 0ct 02, 2024, the network reported 11 fireballs.
(11 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On October 3, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2024 SB1 | 2024-Sep-28 | 12.8 LD | 8 | 14 |
| 2024 SA7 | 2024-Sep-28 | 4.8 LD | 2.5 | 13 |
| 2024 SE | 2024-Sep-28 | 7.6 LD | 10.9 | 46 |
| 2024 SR | 2024-Sep-28 | 3.1 LD | 16.9 | 30 |
| 2024 SQ | 2024-Sep-28 | 3.2 LD | 12.9 | 24 |
| 2024 SY6 | 2024-Sep-28 | 5.9 LD | 19.2 | 36 |
| 2024 SV2 | 2024-Sep-28 | 0.1 LD | 11.5 | 7 |
| 2024 ST1 | 2024-Sep-28 | 3.9 LD | 16.4 | 11 |
| 2024 TA | 2024-Sep-29 | 1 LD | 6 | 8 |
| 2024 TB | 2024-Sep-29 | 12 LD | 11.4 | 20 |
| 2024 SC3 | 2024-Sep-29 | 5.9 LD | 7.4 | 18 |
| 2024 SU1 | 2024-Sep-29 | 4.9 LD | 17.3 | 17 |
| 2024 SE2 | 2024-Sep-29 | 6.3 LD | 8.8 | 14 |
| 2024 SK | 2024-Sep-29 | 5.6 LD | 4.4 | 10 |
| 2024 SC | 2024-Sep-30 | 4.3 LD | 17.9 | 96 |
| 2024 SX1 | 2024-Sep-30 | 16.4 LD | 5.1 | 17 |
| 2024 SC6 | 2024-Sep-30 | 1.9 LD | 9.6 | 11 |
| 2024 TG | 2024-Sep-30 | 0.8 LD | 10.7 | 7 |
| 2024 SJ1 | 2024-Oct-01 | 15.2 LD | 10.6 | 16 |
| 2024 RN15 | 2024-Oct-01 | 8.4 LD | 7.2 | 31 |
| 2024 RH45 | 2024-Oct-01 | 5 LD | 8.2 | 37 |
| 2024 SH7 | 2024-Oct-01 | 8.5 LD | 10.8 | 13 |
| 2024 TQ | 2024-Oct-01 | 15.6 LD | 7.1 | 29 |
| 2024 RO2 | 2024-Oct-02 | 4.2 LD | 9.2 | 37 |
| 2024 RJ16 | 2024-Oct-02 | 18.2 LD | 6.9 | 24 |
| 2024 SV | 2024-Oct-02 | 20.1 LD | 6.2 | 24 |
| 2024 SS | 2024-Oct-02 | 5.7 LD | 7.5 | 25 |
| 2024 SR4 | 2024-Oct-03 | 7 LD | 11.6 | 16 |
| 2024 TE | 2024-Oct-03 | 3.4 LD | 5.8 | 13 |
| 2024 SD3 | 2024-Oct-03 | 3.9 LD | 18.2 | 22 |
| 2024 TM | 2024-Oct-03 | 12.3 LD | 7.8 | 15 |
| 2024 SR1 | 2024-Oct-04 | 5.7 LD | 5.9 | 12 |
| 2024 TF | 2024-Oct-04 | 0.8 LD | 6 | 5 |
| 2024 TJ | 2024-Oct-04 | 3.9 LD | 12.3 | 16 |
| 2024 SY4 | 2024-Oct-04 | 9.8 LD | 4.9 | 9 |
| 2024 RJ32 | 2024-Oct-05 | 7.6 LD | 6.6 | 42 |
| 2024 SL3 | 2024-Oct-05 | 8.2 LD | 12.6 | 19 |
| 2023 GM1 | 2024-Oct-05 | 15.4 LD | 5.2 | 13 |
| 2024 SY5 | 2024-Oct-05 | 4.3 LD | 6 | 9 |
| 2024 SZ1 | 2024-Oct-05 | 11 LD | 20.3 | 36 |
| 2014 VA | 2024-Oct-05 | 18.1 LD | 6.3 | 46 |
| 2024 SH3 | 2024-Oct-05 | 19 LD | 8.2 | 24 |
| 2022 SU21 | 2024-Oct-06 | 17.5 LD | 21.1 | 45 |
| 2024 TD | 2024-Oct-06 | 9.7 LD | 10.9 | 15 |
| 2024 SD6 | 2024-Oct-06 | 4.8 LD | 6.8 | 11 |
| 2022 FC5 | 2024-Oct-06 | 16.2 LD | 19.3 | 39 |
| 671076 | 2024-Oct-07 | 12.8 LD | 8.6 | 120 |
| 2024 SU3 | 2024-Oct-07 | 5.6 LD | 9.1 | 23 |
| 2024 SF5 | 2024-Oct-07 | 15.3 LD | 4.8 | 37 |
| 2024 SN8 | 2024-Oct-08 | 3.2 LD | 14 | 24 |
| 2016 JG38 | 2024-Oct-08 | 13.2 LD | 12 | 56 |
| 2018 QE | 2024-Oct-09 | 1.7 LD | 4.4 | 10 |
| 2024 SM | 2024-Oct-10 | 7.4 LD | 6.7 | 30 |
| 363027 | 2024-Oct-12 | 9.3 LD | 16.6 | 419 |
| 2020 GE1 | 2024-Oct-12 | 20.1 LD | 4.3 | 14 |
| 2022 UX1 | 2024-Oct-12 | 19.9 LD | 9.9 | 9 |
| 2008 UU95 | 2024-Oct-12 | 13.5 LD | 15.6 | 66 |
| 2024 SM4 | 2024-Oct-13 | 18.9 LD | 13.8 | 60 |
| 2021 TK11 | 2024-Oct-14 | 8 LD | 10.6 | 7 |
| 2022 TB41 | 2024-Oct-15 | 10 LD | 6 | 4 |
| 2024 SD2 | 2024-Oct-17 | 10.1 LD | 6.1 | 27 |
| 2019 UH14 | 2024-Oct-17 | 8.3 LD | 10.4 | 62 |
| 2024 RV50 | 2024-Oct-18 | 19.4 LD | 15.6 | 214 |
| 2024 SH1 | 2024-Oct-20 | 6.4 LD | 2.7 | 14 |
| 2024 SE4 | 2024-Oct-22 | 6.9 LD | 2.2 | 10 |
| 2015 HM1 | 2024-Oct-24 | 14.4 LD | 10.9 | 32 |
| 363305 | 2024-Oct-24 | 11.8 LD | 4.9 | 186 |
| 2021 UE2 | 2024-Oct-24 | 13.6 LD | 7.1 | 40 |
| 2023 TG14 | 2024-Oct-24 | 6.6 LD | 6.9 | 24 |
| 2007 UT3 | 2024-Oct-26 | 17.7 LD | 10.4 | 23 |
| 2020 WG | 2024-Oct-28 | 8.7 LD | 9.4 | 160 |
| 2021 CV1 | 2024-Oct-30 | 14.4 LD | 23.6 | 38 |
| 2023 KX3 | 2024-Oct-31 | 18.8 LD | 2.4 | 25 |
| 2022 UD21 | 2024-Oct-31 | 11.4 LD | 11.8 | 27 |
| 2016 VA | 2024-Nov-01 | 1.5 LD | 21.2 | 11 |
| 2023 VS | 2024-Nov-04 | 15.2 LD | 4.3 | 4 |
| 2022 JM | 2024-Nov-06 | 19.7 LD | 6.2 | 6 |
| 2019 WB7 | 2024-Nov-11 | 17.3 LD | 5.7 | 47 |
| 2020 UL3 | 2024-Nov-12 | 4.1 LD | 10.5 | 81 |
| 2020 AB2 | 2024-Nov-13 | 18.9 LD | 7.2 | 14 |
| 2019 VU5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 12 LD | 23.3 | 46 |
| 2019 VL5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 9.6 LD | 8.5 | 24 |
| 2023 WK3 | 2024-Nov-18 | 16.1 LD | 14.5 | 272 |
| 2012 KO11 | 2024-Nov-20 | 6.2 LD | 9.4 | 43 |
| 2020 VX4 | 2024-Nov-20 | 10.5 LD | 10.5 | 11 |
| 2009 WB105 | 2024-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 |
| 2006 WB | 2024-Nov-26 | 2.3 LD | 4.2 | 98 |
| 2018 DC4 | 2024-Nov-29 | 18.8 LD | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2019 JN2 | 2024-Nov-30 | 9.4 LD | 7.7 | 25 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
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| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
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