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JUPITER SPACECRAFT PHOTO-OP: The European Space Agency is about to launch a spacecraft named "Juice" to explore the icy moons of Jupiter. If all goes well, it might discover new habitats for alien life. Amateur astronomers may be able to photograph Juice as it leaves Earth after launching from French Guiana on April 13th (12:15 UT). Get ready: Observing tips.
SOLAR MAX MIGHT ARRIVE EARLY: Solar Maximum is coming--maybe this year. New research by a leading group of solar physicists predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024, a full year earlier than other forecasts.
"This is based on our work with the Termination Event," explains Scott McIntosh, lead author of a paper describing the prediction, published in the January 2023 edition of Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences.
Above: The red curve shows McIntosh et al's new prediction of an early Solar Max.
The "Termination Event" is a relatively new concept in solar physics. It is a period of time on the sun as short as one month when magnetic fields from one solar cycle abruptly die (they are "terminated") allowing magnetic fields from the next solar cycle to take over. After a Termination Event, the new solar cycle skyrockets.
McIntosh and colleagues have studied termination events for many solar cycles, and they have discovered that its timing can predict the future. "Our latest work pinpoints the Termination Event between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 at mid-Dec. 2021," explains McIntosh. "This tells us about the size and date of the next solar maximum."
According to their paper, Solar Max is coming between late 2023 and mid 2024, with a peak total monthly sunspot number of 184±63 (95% confidence). This means Solar Cycle 25 could be twice as strong as old Solar Cycle 24, which peaked back in 2014.
Above: The sun's polar magnetic field (red=N, blue=S) is weakening and will soon flip
Their forecast jibes with another big event now underway. The sun's global magnetic field is about to flip. This happens near the peak of every solar cycle. Magnetic fields near the sun's poles weaken, change sign, and start growing again in the opposite direction. It's like taking a bar magnet from your refrigerator and flipping it upside down--except this bar magnet is as big as a star.
Measurements from Stanford's Wilcox Solar Observatory (pictured above) confirm that the weakening is underway now, with polar magnetic fields probably crossing zero in no more than a few months. "Historically the zero crossing precedes actual sunspot number maximum by 6 to 12 months," says McIntosh, "so this is in accord with our prediction of an early Solar Max."
This forecast is about to be tested, with confirmation as little as 6 to 12 months away. Stay tuned for Solar Max.
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STERLING SILVER HUMMINGBIRD PENDANT: This hummingbird has touched space. On Sept. 22, 2022, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched the sterling silver pendant to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon, more than 117,710 feet high:
You can have it for $169.95. The students are selling hummingbird pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the bird and red lily in flight, and telling the story of their trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Apr 12 2023, the network reported 6 fireballs.
(6 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On April 12, 2023 there were 2327 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2023 GJ | 2023-Apr-07 | 1.8 LD | 12.1 | 16 |
| 2023 FX13 | 2023-Apr-09 | 8.2 LD | 13.3 | 27 |
| 2023 FY13 | 2023-Apr-09 | 18.5 LD | 11.9 | 55 |
| 2023 FP5 | 2023-Apr-09 | 10.7 LD | 14.1 | 40 |
| 2023 FC4 | 2023-Apr-09 | 19.6 LD | 10.1 | 57 |
| 2023 FG5 | 2023-Apr-10 | 9.5 LD | 9.4 | 25 |
| 2023 FT1 | 2023-Apr-10 | 19.5 LD | 6.6 | 34 |
| 2023 GG | 2023-Apr-11 | 4 LD | 10.6 | 75 |
| 2023 GQ | 2023-Apr-11 | 0.3 LD | 20.6 | 7 |
| 2023 FE5 | 2023-Apr-11 | 11.6 LD | 5.8 | 28 |
| 2023 FS10 | 2023-Apr-12 | 3.2 LD | 7.6 | 21 |
| 2019 GK21 | 2023-Apr-13 | 15.2 LD | 8.1 | 27 |
| 2022 YK9 | 2023-Apr-13 | 19.9 LD | 9.9 | 175 |
| 436774 | 2023-Apr-13 | 12.5 LD | 17.6 | 719 |
| 2023 FN13 | 2023-Apr-15 | 2.6 LD | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2020 BV14 | 2023-Apr-16 | 17.8 LD | 8.2 | 81 |
| 2020 FQ6 | 2023-Apr-16 | 13.1 LD | 9.7 | 36 |
| 2023 GU | 2023-Apr-17 | 10.9 LD | 11.2 | 31 |
| 2023 GM | 2023-Apr-17 | 8.5 LD | 20.1 | 115 |
| 2023 GO | 2023-Apr-17 | 18.3 LD | 6.7 | 29 |
| 2023 GS | 2023-Apr-18 | 6 LD | 8.5 | 22 |
| 2023 GR | 2023-Apr-18 | 18.7 LD | 9 | 62 |
| 2006 HV5 | 2023-Apr-26 | 6.3 LD | 17.4 | 400 |
| 2021 JF2 | 2023-Apr-28 | 16.6 LD | 8 | 19 |
| 2018 VS6 | 2023-May-01 | 5.2 LD | 11.6 | 14 |
| 2011 KY15 | 2023-May-18 | 19.9 LD | 14.3 | 54 |
| 2021 JK7 | 2023-May-22 | 16.7 LD | 22.9 | 48 |
| 2019 UJ3 | 2023-May-23 | 15.5 LD | 9.8 | 21 |
| 2023 CL3 | 2023-May-24 | 18.9 LD | 7.3 | 121 |
| 2021 KO2 | 2023-May-29 | 15.8 LD | 13.9 | 9 |
| 2012 KP24 | 2023-May-31 | 10.3 LD | 12.4 | 19 |
| 2018 KR | 2023-Jun-07 | 6.5 LD | 4.9 | 19 |
| 2017 UJ2 | 2023-Jun-07 | 5.3 LD | 5.6 | 2 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | the underlying science of space weather |
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