 | | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 2.00 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 5.67 storm explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 4.35 nT Bz: -2.47 nT south more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1146 UT Coronal Holes: 15 Mar 23  There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected the first electric-blue puffs over Antarctica on Dec. 1st. Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar Updated Mar15 SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2023 Mar 15 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 05 % | 10 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2023 Mar 15 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 35 % | 20 % | MINOR | 30 % | 05 % | SEVERE | 15 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 05 % | 15 % | MINOR | 20 % | 25 % | SEVERE | 70 % | 25 % | | | |  | | | | | | | | Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when magnetic storms erupt. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. You can, too! | | | CME IMPACT SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM (UPDATED): Earth's magnetic field is storming again as our planet passes through the wake of a CME that struck during the early hours of March 15th (0428 UT). Storm levels are currently flickering between category G1 and G2. So far auroras have been sighted iin New Zealand and several northern-tier US states. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT IN PROGRESS: Don't try to use a shortwave radio inside the Arctic Circle this week. It might not work. A deep polar cap absorption (PCA) event is in progress:  Red zones in this global map show where shortwave transmissions are being absorbed. Frequencies below 15 MHz are almost completely blacked out, while anything below 35 MHz is being attentuated, at least a little. What's causing this? Protons accelerated by Monday's extremely rare CME are still hitting our planet 3 days later. Earth's magnetic field funnels these particles toward the poles where their ionizing effect causes the absorption of shortwave radio. The PCA is intensifying; you can can monitor its progress here. FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: The source of Monday's extremely rare CME is still a mystery, but we have two suspects. Helioseismic maps reveal a pair of active regions (probably large sunspot groups) on the farside of the sun:  Both of these regions are located at about the right longitude to explain the CME, which SOHO saw leaving the farside of sun faster than 3000 km/s (6.7 million mph) on March 13th. If the CME had been heading for Earth, we would be bracing for a strong geomagnetic storm right now. That might happen next week instead. The two farside active regions will rotate around to the Earthside of the sun within 7 days, potentially bringing potent sunspots into our planet's "strike zone." Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter "ALWAYS AND FOREVER" SPACE PENDANT: Are you looking for a romantic gift? Consider the Always and Forever Space Pendent. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:  You can have it for $199.95. Engraved with the words "I love you always and forever", this 18K gold-plated pendant has a heart-shaped citrine crystal in the middle surrouunded by a ring of glittering 5A cubic zirconia nuggets. It is a visually striking premium pendant that makes a once-in-a-lifetime anniversary or birthday gift. The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Mar 15 2023, the network reported 3 fireballs. (3 sporadics) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On March 15, 2023 there were 2325 potentially hazardous asteroids.  | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2023 ER1 | 2023-Mar-10 | 3.7 LD | 15.8 | 11 | 2023 EJ1 | 2023-Mar-10 | 5 LD | 6.7 | 6 | 2023 ET | 2023-Mar-11 | 1.3 LD | 11.7 | 21 | 2023 ET1 | 2023-Mar-11 | 1.2 LD | 9 | 5 | 2023 EP1 | 2023-Mar-12 | 18.4 LD | 21.6 | 279 | 2023 ES | 2023-Mar-12 | 2.2 LD | 8.2 | 19 | 2023 EX | 2023-Mar-13 | 3.7 LD | 8.4 | 11 | 2020 FV4 | 2023-Mar-13 | 17.6 LD | 8.2 | 30 | 2023 EA1 | 2023-Mar-14 | 15.2 LD | 15.1 | 33 | 2023 CM | 2023-Mar-14 | 10.3 LD | 14 | 190 | 2023 EW | 2023-Mar-15 | 14.2 LD | 4.1 | 22 | 2023 ED1 | 2023-Mar-15 | 19.6 LD | 4.9 | 30 | 2023 DM | 2023-Mar-15 | 8.5 LD | 7.3 | 65 | 2023 EY | 2023-Mar-17 | 0.6 LD | 8.1 | 17 | 2018 UQ1 | 2023-Mar-17 | 10.7 LD | 11.7 | 143 | 2023 ES1 | 2023-Mar-17 | 5.1 LD | 8.1 | 10 | 2023 EZ | 2023-Mar-18 | 16.3 LD | 6.6 | 19 | 2016 WH | 2023-Mar-19 | 18.1 LD | 11.8 | 14 | 2018 FE3 | 2023-Mar-21 | 10.1 LD | 5.4 | 13 | 2023 EO1 | 2023-Mar-23 | 6.9 LD | 21.1 | 43 | 2023 DX2 | 2023-Mar-27 | 8.5 LD | 9 | 56 | 2022 YK4 | 2023-Mar-29 | 11.9 LD | 2.3 | 25 | 2017 SE12 | 2023-Mar-30 | 5.2 LD | 8.4 | 15 | 2016 GH1 | 2023-Mar-30 | 7.7 LD | 5.8 | 11 | 2022 GO3 | 2023-Apr-02 | 17 LD | 11.6 | 15 | 2021 GN1 | 2023-Apr-02 | 17.7 LD | 14.2 | 18 | 2018 FD | 2023-Apr-07 | 17.9 LD | 8.2 | 47 | 2019 GK21 | 2023-Apr-13 | 15.2 LD | 8.1 | 27 | 2022 YK9 | 2023-Apr-13 | 19.9 LD | 9.9 | 175 | 436774 | 2023-Apr-13 | 12.5 LD | 17.6 | 719 | 2006 HV5 | 2023-Apr-26 | 6.3 LD | 17.4 | 400 | 2021 JF2 | 2023-Apr-28 | 16.6 LD | 8 | 19 | 2018 VS6 | 2023-May-01 | 5.2 LD | 11.6 | 14 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:  What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page | | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather |  | Getting YouTube comments is essential if you want to beat the algorithm! 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