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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 474.0 km/sec
density: 3.65 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1148 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4
2334 UT Sep15
24-hr: C4
2334 UT Sep15
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 15 Sep 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
New sunspot AR3825 has a mixed polarity magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares.. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 136
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 15 Sep 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 15 Sep 2024


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 32.64x1010 W Hot
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 15 Sep 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 172 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 15 Sep 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -8.0% Low
48-hr change: +0.1%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 15 Sep 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3.33 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4.00
unsettled
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.72 nT
Bz: -2.49 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1147 UT
Coronal Holes: 15 Sep 24

Solar wind flowing from this pair of coronal holes could brush Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 16.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Sep. 15, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is much too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The northern season for NLCs is underway--but not for long. The first clouds were detected inside the Arctic Circle on May 25, 2024, by the NOAA 21 satellite. After peaking in July, the clouds are now in rapid decline. This is typical for the month of August, which usually brings the end of NLC season in the northern hemisphere.

noctilucent clouds
Updated: Aug. 28, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). In the daily map, above, each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2024 Sep 15 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
55 %
45 %
CLASS X
15 %
10 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2024 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
30 %
MINOR
35 %
35 %
SEVERE
50 %
25 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
01 %
05 %
MINOR
10 %
15 %
SEVERE
90 %
80 %
 
Sunday, Sep. 15, 2024
What's up in space
       
 

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

 

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: A CME hurled into space by yesterday's X4.5-class solar flare will graze Earth on Sept. 16th, according to a NASA model. NOAA forecasters are predicting a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm when the CME arrives. During G3 storms, auroras can sometimes be seen with the naked eye from mid-latitudes--e.g., as far south as California, Missouri and Colorado in the USA. On Sept. 16th, however, bright moonlight could mitigate the display. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

SIGNIFICANT X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot AR3825 erupted on Sept. 14th, producing a very strong X4.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:


Click to view a movie of the flare

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, resulting in a deep shortwave radio blackout over South America and the mid-Atlantic Ocean: map. Ham radio operators and mariners may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as 30 minutes after the flare's peak (1529 UTC).

The explosion also hurled a CME into space, and a NASA model confirms that it has an Earth-directed component. Strong G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME grazes Earth on Sept. 16th. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

more images: from Warren Spreng of Mason, Ohio; from Thierry Legault of Paris, France; from Steve Godbout of Quebec City, Quebec; from Cindy Braunheim at Ginko State Park in Vantage, Washington;

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

"HAND OF APOLLO" STAR TREK CHRISTMAS ORNAMENT: You can't buy this on Amazon. The Hand of Apollo Christmas Ornament is only available from the Earth to Sky Store. On Aug. 15, 2024, it flew to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:

You can have it for $127.95. This ornament depicts the iconic opening scene from original Star Trek series episode "Who Mourns for Adonais?" first aired in 1967. Near the planet Pollux III, the Enterprise was held immobile by an energy field shaped as a human hand. It belonged to a being claiming to be the Greek god Apollo. This will look far out on your Christmas tree this December.

The students of Earth to Sky Calculus are selling space ornaments to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Don't wait for Christmas--get yours now!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
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Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
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Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Sep 15, 2024, the network reported 8 fireballs.
(7 sporadics, 1 Sept. epsilon Perseid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On September 15, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2024 RH13
2024-Sep-10
16.8 LD
7.1
12
2024 RG7
2024-Sep-10
19.7 LD
12.5
43
2024 RA14
2024-Sep-10
3.4 LD
11.8
36
2024 RJ12
2024-Sep-10
1.8 LD
5.4
10
2024 RW13
2024-Sep-10
1.1 LD
22.3
14
2024 RH
2024-Sep-10
16.7 LD
11.4
27
2024 RM3
2024-Sep-10
4.8 LD
6.2
18
2024 RX13
2024-Sep-11
0.2 LD
5.6
2
2024 RY3
2024-Sep-11
3.5 LD
14.1
14
2024 RW4
2024-Sep-11
8.6 LD
5.1
37
2016 TU19
2024-Sep-11
13.2 LD
10.1
47
2024 RO1
2024-Sep-11
9.1 LD
9.4
24
2024 RM16
2024-Sep-11
6.7 LD
11.6
21
2024 RL8
2024-Sep-11
1.1 LD
13.3
11
2024 RH2
2024-Sep-12
7.8 LD
4.2
35
2024 QS1
2024-Sep-12
12.1 LD
14.3
135
2024 RT12
2024-Sep-12
10.2 LD
7.4
22
2024 RL16
2024-Sep-12
19.4 LD
5
22
2024 RF3
2024-Sep-12
4.7 LD
6.5
12
2024 RJ29
2024-Sep-12
10 LD
10
24
2024 RL4
2024-Sep-12
12.6 LD
16.8
24
2024 RH32
2024-Sep-13
1.4 LD
14.4
13
2024 RB11
2024-Sep-13
4.8 LD
10.2
14
2024 RZ10
2024-Sep-13
14 LD
10.9
34
2024 RL10
2024-Sep-14
3.9 LD
5.7
11
2024 RB16
2024-Sep-14
18.4 LD
7.5
23
2024 RB13
2024-Sep-14
5.5 LD
9.8
8
2024 RN16
2024-Sep-14
4.4 LD
29.1
34
2024 RK13
2024-Sep-14
2.7 LD
5.6
7
2024 RT3
2024-Sep-15
16.3 LD
9.6
22
2024 RM10
2024-Sep-15
5.2 LD
6.6
24
2024 RQ5
2024-Sep-15
1.1 LD
5.9
9
2024 RS4
2024-Sep-15
6.5 LD
10.5
19
2019 DJ1
2024-Sep-15
10.4 LD
4.9
15
2024 RQ
2024-Sep-16
1.4 LD
6.7
32
2024 ON
2024-Sep-17
2.6 LD
8.9
277
2024 RY10
2024-Sep-17
4.6 LD
5.3
16
2024 RR16
2024-Sep-17
15.2 LD
8.6
17
2024 RZ13
2024-Sep-18
16.6 LD
8.6
16
2013 FW13
2024-Sep-18
8.5 LD
15.6
162
2024 RJ13
2024-Sep-18
10.7 LD
13.1
21
2024 RH8
2024-Sep-18
8.4 LD
17.4
46
2022 SW3
2024-Sep-19
6.8 LD
9.2
37
2015 SH
2024-Sep-19
11.6 LD
5.9
9
2024 RJ1
2024-Sep-20
15.4 LD
8.9
42
2024 RD15
2024-Sep-20
18.7 LD
8.2
16
2024 RH14
2024-Sep-20
7.2 LD
11.7
19
2024 RB10
2024-Sep-20
19 LD
12.8
78
2024 QV5
2024-Sep-20
13.9 LD
10.6
35
2023 RX1
2024-Sep-20
10.1 LD
1.1
3
2024 RB22
2024-Sep-20
8.6 LD
2.8
45
2018 VG
2024-Sep-20
13.4 LD
7.3
12
2024 RY15
2024-Sep-21
2.4 LD
13.6
26
2024 RZ21
2024-Sep-21
11.7 LD
18
36
2020 GE
2024-Sep-24
1.7 LD
2.2
8
2024 RO11
2024-Sep-24
19.2 LD
19.1
39
2024 RK7
2024-Sep-25
17.8 LD
6.3
33
2024 RW25
2024-Sep-27
16.1 LD
9.8
26
2024 RP15
2024-Sep-27
17.5 LD
9.9
30
2011 ST12
2024-Sep-27
17.6 LD
7.4
19
2024 RN15
2024-Oct-01
8.4 LD
7.2
28
2024 RO2
2024-Oct-02
4.2 LD
9.2
35
2024 RJ16
2024-Oct-02
18.2 LD
6.9
24
2024 RJ32
2024-Oct-05
7.6 LD
6.6
45
2023 GM1
2024-Oct-05
15.4 LD
5.2
13
2014 VA
2024-Oct-05
18.1 LD
6.3
46
2022 SU21
2024-Oct-06
17.5 LD
21.1
45
671076
2024-Oct-07
12.8 LD
8.6
120
2016 JG38
2024-Oct-08
13.2 LD
12
56
2018 QE
2024-Oct-09
1.7 LD
4.4
10
363027
2024-Oct-12
9.3 LD
16.6
419
2020 GE1
2024-Oct-12
20.1 LD
4.3
14
2022 UX1
2024-Oct-12
19.9 LD
9.9
9
2008 UU95
2024-Oct-12
13.5 LD
15.6
66
2021 TK11
2024-Oct-14
8 LD
10.6
7
2022 TB41
2024-Oct-15
10 LD
6
4
2019 UH14
2024-Oct-17
8.3 LD
10.4
62
2015 HM1
2024-Oct-24
14.4 LD
10.9
32
363305
2024-Oct-24
11.8 LD
4.9
186
2021 UE2
2024-Oct-24
13.6 LD
7.1
40
2023 TG14
2024-Oct-24
6.6 LD
6.9
24
2007 UT3
2024-Oct-26
17.7 LD
10.4
23
2020 WG
2024-Oct-28
8.7 LD
9.4
160
2021 CV1
2024-Oct-30
14.4 LD
23.6
38
2023 KX3
2024-Oct-31
18.8 LD
2.4
25
2022 UD21
2024-Oct-31
11.6 LD
11.8
27
2016 VA
2024-Nov-01
1.5 LD
21.2
11
2023 VS
2024-Nov-04
15.2 LD
4.3
4
2022 JM
2024-Nov-06
19.7 LD
6.2
6
2019 WB7
2024-Nov-11
17.3 LD
5.7
47
2020 UL3
2024-Nov-12
4.1 LD
10.5
81
2020 AB2
2024-Nov-13
18.9 LD
7.2
14
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Starlink Satellite Statistics
  current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics.
The Aerospace Corporation
  Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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T CrB NOVA WATCH
today: m=10.0 (Sep 15.8)
yesterday: m=10.0

more: AAVSO data | sky map

Explanation: When the nova explodes, the visual magnitude of the star (m) will jump from +10 (invisible to the naked eye) to +2 (about as bright as the North Star).



Moon Phases


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