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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 354.0 km/sec
density: 0.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A1
2235 UT Jun16
24-hr: A1
0129 UT Jun16
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 16 Jun 20
Decaying sunspot AR2765 is disappearing around the sun's western limb. Tomorrow it will be gone. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 11
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 16 Jun 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 122 days (73%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 16 Jun 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 2.77
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 16 Jun 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 16 Jun 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.5% High
48-hr change: -0.1%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 16 Jun 2020 @ 1600 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.8 nT
Bz: -0.1 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
Coronal Holes: 16 Jun 20

Solar wind flowing from this minor coronal hole could reach Earth on June 17-18.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds NLC season has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected a blue cloud over the north pole on May 17th--one of the earliest starts in the spacecraft's 14 year history. Check here for daily images from AIM.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Jun 16 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
20 %
05 %
MINOR
05 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
25 %
15 %
SEVERE
30 %
10 %
 
Tuesday, Jun. 16, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too!

 

SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: Earth is about to cross a fold in the heliospheric current sheet--a vast wavy structure in interplanetary space separating regions of opposite magnetic polarity. The crossing, called a "solar sector boundary crossing," is expected on June 16th and could trigger minor geomagnetic activity around Earth's poles. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

NAKED-EYE COMET NEOWISE? Here we go again. A comet is falling toward the sun, and it could become a naked-eye object after it skims past the orbit of Mercury on July 3rd. Michael Mattiazzo photographed Comet NEOWISE (C/2020 F3) on June 10th from Swan Hill, Australia:

"Pushing the limits of comet observing, I had to leave home to find a clear horizon," says Mattiazzo. "When I took the picture, Comet NEOWISE was very close to the sun and only 5 degrees above the local horizon. Its visual magnitude was near +7.0, below the threshold for naked-eye visibility."

It might not look like much now, but this comet could blossom in the weeks after perihelion (closest approach to the sun). Forecasters say Comet NEOWISE might become as bright as a 2nd or 3rd magnitude star. Northern hemisphere observers would be able to easily see it in the evening sky in mid-July.

At this point, readers may be experiencing a feeling of déjà vu. Almost the exact same forecast was issued for Comet ATLAS (C/2019 Y4) in March and Comet SWAN (C/2020 F8) in May. Both comets dived toward the sun and … instead of blossoming, died. Intense solar heat can do that to a fragile ball of ice.

Mattiazzo, who is one of the world’s most experienced amateur comet observers, thinks Comet NEOWISE could turn out better. "I'd say there's a 70% chance this comet will survive perihelion," he says, basing his guess on the stability of the comet’s light curve, which sets it apart from Comets ATLAS and SWAN. "Hopefully, Comet NEOWISE could be a case of 'third time lucky' for northern hemisphere observers."

We'll know soon enough. On June 22nd, the comet will enter the field of view of SOHO's C3 coronagraph–a space-based instrument that blocks the glare of the sun to reveal nearby stars, planets and comets. For a whole week, astronomers will be able to monitor Comet NEOWISE as it approaches the orbit of Mercury. If it falls apart, the event may be visible in the images. Ditto if it survives.

Stay tuned for updates.

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

FAR-OUT FATHER'S DAY GIFTS: What do you get for the dad who has everything? Something from the edge of space! Father's Day is this Sunday and everything in the Earth to Sky Store is 10% off:

Almost every week, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launch a helium balloon to the stratosphere to measure cosmic radiation. Items in the Earth to Sky Store went along for the ride, accompanying radiation sensors to the edge of space. All sales support the students' ballooning program. Dad-satisfaction guarenteed!

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On June 16, 2020, the network reported 16 fireballs.
(16 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On June 16, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 JQ2
2020-Jun-11
15.2 LD
4.5
25
2020 LK
2020-Jun-11
11 LD
17.3
73
2020 JS1
2020-Jun-11
9.9 LD
5
19
2020 JU1
2020-Jun-13
19 LD
6.6
49
2020 LC
2020-Jun-13
12.4 LD
7.7
49
2020 KB3
2020-Jun-13
3.2 LD
7.5
37
2020 LL
2020-Jun-14
5.6 LD
19.8
29
2017 MF7
2020-Jun-14
3.7 LD
10.9
23
2020 KP6
2020-Jun-16
3.6 LD
10.8
41
2020 JU3
2020-Jun-17
6.9 LD
10.9
53
2020 KF3
2020-Jun-17
12.5 LD
3.4
15
2020 LG
2020-Jun-18
8.9 LD
10.6
51
2018 PD22
2020-Jun-19
17.2 LD
14.6
56
2020 KR1
2020-Jun-22
11.6 LD
6.8
42
2020 LV
2020-Jun-22
5.4 LD
4.8
32
441987
2020-Jun-24
9.8 LD
12.9
186
2017 FW128
2020-Jun-25
6.9 LD
5.4
11
2020 KQ7
2020-Jun-27
10.3 LD
2.6
18
2020 JX1
2020-Jun-29
3.3 LD
5
62
2019 AC3
2020-Jul-01
10.5 LD
3.4
12
2007 UN12
2020-Jul-04
16.7 LD
2.9
6
2020 LS
2020-Jul-04
19.4 LD
11.6
73
2020 KJ7
2020-Jul-13
11.9 LD
3.4
30
2009 OS5
2020-Jul-13
17.6 LD
2.6
45
2016 DY30
2020-Jul-19
9 LD
15.1
3
2002 BF25
2020-Jul-21
9.4 LD
6.8
129
2018 PY7
2020-Jul-31
8.9 LD
9.5
16
2007 RF1
2020-Jul-31
10.7 LD
5
21
2018 BD
2020-Aug-03
7.6 LD
9.4
3
2009 PQ1
2020-Aug-05
10.8 LD
13.5
112
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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