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SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A hole in the sun's atmosphere is facing Earth and spraying a stream of solar wind in our direction. Estimated time of arrival: Dec. 18th. Geomagnetic storms are not expected. However, Arctic sky watchers should be alert for a brightening of auroras when the gaseous material arrives. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
SUNSPOTS BREAK A SPACE AGE RECORD: Solar Minimum is becoming very deep indeed. Over the weekend, the sun set a Space Age record for spotlessness. So far in 2019, the sun has been without sunspots for more than 270 days, including the last 33 days in a row. Since the Space Age began, no other year has had this many blank suns.

Above: The blank sun on Dec. 16, 2019. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory
The previous record-holder was the year 2008, when the sun was blank for 268 days. That was during the epic Solar Minimum of 2008-2009, formerly the deepest of the Space Age. Now 2019 has moved into first place.
Solar Minimum is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle. The past two (2008-2009 and 2018-2019) have been long and deep, making them "century-class" Minima. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days.
Last week, the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel issued a new forecast. Based on a variety of predictive techniques, they believe that the current Solar Minimum will reach its deepest point in April 2020 (+/- 6 months) followed by a new Solar Maximum in July 2025. This means that low sunspot counts and weak solar activity could continue for some time to come.

Solar Minimum definitely alters the character of space weather. Solar flares and geomagnetic storms subside, making it harder to catch Northern Lights at mid-latitudes. Space weather grows "quiet." On the other hand, cosmic rays intensify. The sun's weakening magnetic field allows more particles from deep space into the solar system, boosting radiation levels in Earth's atmosphere. Indeed, this is happening now with atmospheric cosmic rays at a 5-year high and flirting with their own Space Age record. It's something to think about the next time you step on an airplane. Stay tuned for updates!
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CHRISTMAS GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: So far in 2019, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have launched 41 space weather balloons to the stratosphere, measuring cosmic rays over 2 continents and 6 different US states. You can help them pay their helium bill by purchasing a Christmas gift from the edge of space:

Every item in the Earth to Sky Store has flown to the stratosphere alongside an array of cosmic ray sensors. Carried aloft by giant helium balloons, these unique gifts travel above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out.
Don't forget to enter coupon code "XMASRAYS" at checkout for a 10% holiday discount.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
GEMINID METEORS VS. THE MOON: The Geminid meteor shower peaked this weekend (Dec. 13-14) when Earth passed through a stream of debris from rock comet 3200 Phaethon. The display was almost ruined by the full Moon. Almost. This composite image from Bum-Suk Yeom of Iksan, South Korea, shows that some Geminids were visible in spite of lunar glare:

"On Dec. 14th, I photographed more than a dozen meteors streaking out of the constellation Gemini," says Yeom. "The Moon was there, too--practically sitting on top of the Geminid radiant. This reduced the number of visible meteors, but did not completely eliminate them."
In Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico, Frankie Lucena also recorded some bright Geminids. In his case, he had to contend with not only the Moon, but also an active thunderstorm. "The thunderclouds and a lightning flash made the display look pretty cool!" he says.
For most observers, the 2019 Geminids were a dud--the Moon won. Next year will be better. Mark your calendar for Dec. 13-14, 2020, when the Geminids coincide with a beautifully dark New Moon.
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Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec. 15, 2019, the network reported 113 fireballs.
(86 Geminids, 26 sporadics, 1 Dec. Monocerotid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On December 16, 2019 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2019 XO1 | 2019-Dec-13 | 8 LD | 8 | 43 |
2019 WP6 | 2019-Dec-14 | 6.4 LD | 4.4 | 22 |
2019 XN3 | 2019-Dec-14 | 3.3 LD | 3.9 | 17 |
2019 XL3 | 2019-Dec-15 | 1.4 LD | 12.3 | 13 |
2019 XF | 2019-Dec-18 | 9.3 LD | 24.1 | 79 |
216258 | 2019-Dec-20 | 15.3 LD | 11.8 | 324 |
2013 XY20 | 2019-Dec-21 | 18.3 LD | 1.9 | 28 |
2017 XQ60 | 2019-Dec-22 | 11 LD | 15.6 | 47 |
310442 | 2019-Dec-26 | 19 LD | 12.3 | 372 |
2019 WR4 | 2019-Dec-31 | 11.7 LD | 4.2 | 21 |
2019 AE3 | 2020-Jan-02 | 4.9 LD | 8.2 | 13 |
2019 UO | 2020-Jan-10 | 11.8 LD | 9.4 | 341 |
2019 WC5 | 2020-Jan-11 | 6.4 LD | 13 | 107 |
2011 EP51 | 2020-Jan-15 | 19.6 LD | 7.1 | 32 |
2017 RZ15 | 2020-Jan-15 | 12.1 LD | 7.4 | 14 |
2009 BH2 | 2020-Jan-18 | 14.6 LD | 17.9 | 118 |
2013 DU | 2020-Jan-20 | 15.3 LD | 6.4 | 59 |
2019 TF2 | 2020-Jan-23 | 16.2 LD | 1.6 | 18 |
2018 BM5 | 2020-Jan-23 | 13.1 LD | 8.6 | 12 |
2018 AL12 | 2020-Jan-30 | 18.2 LD | 17.7 | 39 |
2018 BU1 | 2020-Feb-02 | 19.4 LD | 10 | 41 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.
E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.
The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.
To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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