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CME TO STRIKE VENUS AND MARS: A CME launched into space by yesterday's X-flare (described below) may not strike Earth, however, it will hit Venus and Mars, according to a NASA model. The strike on Venus (June 22nd) will probably erode a small amount of the planet's upper atmosphere, while the strike on Mars (June 25th) could spark auroras visible to MAVEN and other Mars-orbiting satellites.
X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME: New sunspot AR3341 erupted on June 20th, producing an X1.1-class solar flare (1709 UT). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere. This caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over North America: map. Aviators and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as 45 minutes after the flare.
SOHO coronagraphs have since detected a CME emerging from the blast site. The CME's expansion velocity exceeds 1000 km/s (2.2 million mph), according to Type II radio bursts detected by the US Air Force. It's a fast mover that should deliver a potent blow to whatever it hits.
Earth is probably not in the strike zone, although a glancing blow may be possible on June 22nd or 23rd. Confirmation awaits modeling by NOAA forecasters. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
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A NEW WAY TO DETECT SOLAR FLARES: Around the world, ham radio operators are experimenting with a new way to detect solar flares--the Doppler Shift method. Brian Curtis of Sault Ste Marie, Michigan, demonstrated the technique during yesterday's X-flare:
"I monitor the frequency and field strength of Canada's CHU time station transmitting at 7850 KHz," explains Curtis. "During the X-class flare event, I was able to detect the Doppler shift of the station's carrier frequency (green plot). It shifted by 5 Hz, which is a small change, but very obvious!"
When radiation from a solar flare hits Earth's atmosphere, it ionizes the air, temporarily boosting the thickness of our planet's ionosphere. Any radio station skipping off the ionosphere will suddenly find its frequency Doppler shifted. Frequency standards stations such as WWV, WWVH, and CHU transmit carriers with atomic-clock grade frequency stability, so they are perfect sources for Doppler monitoring.
"I have been monitoring radio stations for decades, noting sudden changes in signal strength as a means of monitoring space weather events," says Curtis. "It is only fairly recently (~4 months) that I started to experiment with monitoring the Doppler shift of HF stations. Yesterday's X-class flare event is by far the most dramatic that I have witnessed thus far."
Would you like to detect solar flares this way? The HamSCI citizen science program has developed a Personal Space Weather Station specifically for doppler shift measurements. This technique can also be used to study solar eclipses.
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18K GOLD CUPID'S COMPASS: Are you looking for a romantic gift? Consider Cupid's Compass. This premuim 18K gold-filled pendant flew to the stratosphere on Jan. 6th onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $259.95. Engraved with the words "I'd be lost without you", the hypoallergenic pendant has a 5-star cubic zirconia crystal in the middle surrounded by a ring of equally high-grade 5A cubic zirconia nuggets. It is a visually striking pendant that makes a once-in-a-lifetime Valentine's, anniversary or birthday gift.
The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
COMET ATLAS IS UP ALL NIGHT: If you can find the North Star, you can find Comet ATLAS (C/2023 E1). This week, the comet is approaching Polaris, which means it is up all night for northern astronomers. Michael Jaeger photographed it gliding among the stars of Ursa Minor on June 18th:
This comet was discovered on March 1st by an Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in South Africa. At first it appeared to be an asteroid, but when a tail appeared astronomers quickly realized they had found a comet. Falling toward the sun, Comet ATLAS has since brightened 1000-fold in response to increasing solar heat.
A peak brightness of magnitude +9 is expected around July 1st when Comet ATLAS reaches perihelion (closest approach to the sun). The comet will still be close to the North Star, up all night and begging for a nice long expsosure. Take a look!
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Jun 20, 2023, the network reported 3 fireballs.
(3 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On June 21, 2023 there were 2335 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2023 MB | 2023-Jun-16 | 13.5 LD | 5.5 | 20 |
| 2023 MP | 2023-Jun-16 | 4.5 LD | 12.6 | 35 |
| 2023 LQ1 | 2023-Jun-16 | 2.7 LD | 8.4 | 14 |
| 2023 MZ | 2023-Jun-16 | 11.8 LD | 20.3 | 67 |
| 2023 HL | 2023-Jun-17 | 13.5 LD | 1 | 15 |
| 2023 LV1 | 2023-Jun-17 | 14.7 LD | 16.5 | 192 |
| 2023 LE2 | 2023-Jun-17 | 0.4 LD | 6.8 | 3 |
| 2023 LV | 2023-Jun-18 | 11.9 LD | 8 | 34 |
| 2023 LW | 2023-Jun-18 | 6.1 LD | 16.6 | 33 |
| 2016 LK49 | 2023-Jun-19 | 17.4 LD | 19.4 | 22 |
| 2023 MJ1 | 2023-Jun-20 | 17.5 LD | 4.5 | 23 |
| 2023 LT1 | 2023-Jun-20 | 1.8 LD | 10.3 | 15 |
| 2023 HF1 | 2023-Jun-21 | 12.5 LD | 4.4 | 59 |
| 2023 MQ | 2023-Jun-23 | 3.1 LD | 8.8 | 11 |
| 2023 MU | 2023-Jun-23 | 18.5 LD | 14 | 56 |
| 467336 | 2023-Jun-24 | 17.4 LD | 7.1 | 269 |
| 2008 LG2 | 2023-Jun-24 | 10.5 LD | 5.6 | 32 |
| 2023 MD | 2023-Jun-25 | 7 LD | 4.1 | 28 |
| 2023 MF1 | 2023-Jun-25 | 5 LD | 17.8 | 38 |
| 2023 ME1 | 2023-Jun-26 | 12.8 LD | 12.2 | 29 |
| 2013 WV44 | 2023-Jun-28 | 9.1 LD | 11.8 | 95 |
| 2023 MN1 | 2023-Jun-29 | 9.5 LD | 15 | 37 |
| 2023 MR1 | 2023-Jun-29 | 6 LD | 12.1 | 59 |
| 2022 MM1 | 2023-Jun-29 | 9.8 LD | 9.7 | 41 |
| 2023 LG2 | 2023-Jul-01 | 5.7 LD | 2.8 | 26 |
| 2020 NC | 2023-Jul-02 | 13.9 LD | 7.7 | 123 |
| 2023 MT1 | 2023-Jul-03 | 2.9 LD | 5.2 | 14 |
| 2023 HO6 | 2023-Jul-05 | 5.3 LD | 7.8 | 230 |
| 2023 LH2 | 2023-Jul-06 | 18.8 LD | 7.9 | 35 |
| 2019 LH5 | 2023-Jul-07 | 14.9 LD | 21.6 | 281 |
| 2018 NW | 2023-Jul-10 | 18 LD | 21.8 | 10 |
| 2023 LN1 | 2023-Jul-10 | 17.9 LD | 5.8 | 63 |
| 2023 MQ1 | 2023-Jul-11 | 10.7 LD | 6 | 51 |
| 2018 UY | 2023-Jul-12 | 7.4 LD | 16.4 | 243 |
| 2020 UQ3 | 2023-Jul-18 | 3.2 LD | 9.3 | 59 |
| 2022 GX2 | 2023-Jul-20 | 11.9 LD | 9.4 | 5 |
| 2020 OM | 2023-Jul-20 | 8.5 LD | 9.5 | 14 |
| 2015 MA54 | 2023-Jul-24 | 16.6 LD | 9.2 | 31 |
| 2018 BG5 | 2023-Jul-27 | 10.7 LD | 8.4 | 56 |
| 2020 PP1 | 2023-Jul-29 | 17 LD | 4.1 | 17 |
| 2021 BD3 | 2023-Jul-30 | 14 LD | 8.5 | 25 |
| 2016 AW65 | 2023-Jul-31 | 16.6 LD | 5.7 | 54 |
| 2020 PN1 | 2023-Aug-03 | 10.8 LD | 4.8 | 29 |
| 620082 | 2023-Aug-04 | 14 LD | 20.6 | 375 |
| 2004 KG1 | 2023-Aug-06 | 18.7 LD | 9.2 | 54 |
| 2022 BS2 | 2023-Aug-11 | 17.3 LD | 8.2 | 30 |
| 2022 CP1 | 2023-Aug-17 | 13.8 LD | 9.8 | 12 |
| 2011 QJ21 | 2023-Aug-19 | 13 LD | 15.1 | 45 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | the underlying science of space weather |
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