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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 355.8 km/sec
density: 11.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A1
1804 UT Aug25
24-hr: A1
1630 UT Aug25
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 25 Aug 20
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 25 Aug 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2020 total: 160 days (67%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 25 Aug 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 2.90
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 24 Aug 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 25 Aug 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +10.0% Very High
48-hr change: +0.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 25 Aug 2020 @ 1600 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.8 nT
Bz: -0.8 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 25 Aug 20

Solar wind flowing from this northern coronal hole could graze Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 25.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds NLC season is underway. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected a blue cloud over the north pole on May 17th--one of the earliest starts in the spacecraft's14 year history. Check here for daily images from AIM.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Aug 25 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
25 %
10 %
MINOR
05 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
20 %
MINOR
30 %
20 %
SEVERE
30 %
10 %
 
Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too!

 

SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE IN EFFECT: Solar Minimum doesn't give up easily. For much of July and August, it seemed like solar activity was returning to normal, with a profusion of Solar Cycle 25 sunspots and minor solar flares. But now the sun is blank again--no sunspots--and the sun's X-ray output has flatlined. Periods of quiet like these will crop up from time to time as Solar Cycle 25 sputters to life. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

SPIRAL LIGHTS ON MARS: NASA's MAVEN spacecraft has discovered something unexpected on Mars--and researchers are struggling to explain it.

"There is a vast spiral of ultraviolet light over Mars' South Pole," says Nick Schneider of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. "We understand the origin of the light, but its shape is a mystery."


Above: Shown in false-color (green), UV light is spiraling around Mars' South Pole.

The light is "nightglow." We have it here on Earth, too, where it's called "airglow." During the day, ultraviolet radiation from the sun breaks apart compounds in the upper atmosphere. At night, the atoms reassemble, glowing as they put themselves back together again. On Earth, airglow looks like the aurora borealis; people can actually see it. On Mars, the emission is ultraviolet, invisible to the human eye.

MAVEN has been monitoring Martian nightglow for years, yet the spiral pattern was only recently recognized. Schneider recalls the 'Eureka moment': "We were preparing a demo on our lab's internal projection sphere (like Science on a Sphere), which turned out to be the first time we had plotted the UV glow in polar coordinates. The spiral 'popped' and we were all quite giddy."


Above: The chemistry of Martian nightglow. Nitric oxide (NO) also produces airglow on Earth.

The spiral is just the tip of the iceberg; the whole planet is surrounded by pulsating patterns of nightglow. High above the North Pole of Mars there is a luminous blob that pulses exactly twice a day. And around the equator there are three more blobs, evenly spaced, pulsing three times a day. Only the South Pole has a spiral, and it pulses once a day.

"It's pretty complicated," says Schneider.

To make sense of it all, Schneider and colleagues "spun up" a general circulation model (GCM) of the Martian atmosphere. (This part of the work was led by Francisco González‐Galindo at the Instituto Astrofísica Andalucía.) GCMs are computer programs that model planetary atmospheres. They're used all the time by weather forecasters on Earth, and planetary scientists have Martian versions as well, complete with accurate values for solar heating, winds, chemistry, cloud formation, and so on.

According to the GCM, nightglow on Mars is shaped by atmospheric tides. The gravity of the sun pulls on the Martian atmosphere, and the atmosphere has a natural response: It essentially rings like a bell three times a day. This accounts for the pulsating blobs around the equator.


Above: MAVEN data (panels a and b) vs. a GCM model of Martian nightglow (panel c).

"We were really impressed that the Mars General Circulation Model reproduced the equatorial patterns so well," says Schneider. The model did not, however, account for the spiral. "We've really struggled to explain it," he admits. "And however we might explain why a spiral should exist at the South Pole, we also need to explain why it should not exist at the North Pole!"

More data from MAVEN and updates to the Mars General Circulation Model might eventually provide an answer. For now, it remains a dizzying mystery. Schneider et al's original research was just published in the August 6, 2020, edition of JGR Space Physics. Read it here.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

DARTH VADER BOBBLEHEAD: No collection of Star Wars bobbleheads is complete without a Sith Lord. For those of you who feel the same way, we present Darth Vader in the stratosphere. On Aug. 14th, Luke's father hitched a ride onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloon, flying 117,454 feet above Earth's surface:

You can have him for $119.95. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus are selling Vader bobbleheads to fund their cosmic ray monitoring program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing Vader in flight and telling the story of his journey to the edge of space and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter
.

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On August 25, 2020, the network reported 27 fireballs.
(27 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On August 25, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 QW3
2020-Aug-20
8.2 LD
18
30
2020 QO1
2020-Aug-20
3.7 LD
26.5
13
2020 PY2
2020-Aug-20
0.9 LD
16.8
17
2020 QY2
2020-Aug-20
0.2 LD
18.9
2
2020 PQ2
2020-Aug-21
4.6 LD
19.7
50
2020 QN4
2020-Aug-21
0.7 LD
7.7
7
2020 QP
2020-Aug-21
16.1 LD
24.7
56
2020 QQ4
2020-Aug-22
0.8 LD
7.6
6
2020 QF
2020-Aug-23
9 LD
6.9
13
2020 QT4
2020-Aug-23
5.4 LD
8.3
31
2020 FA1
2020-Aug-23
18.4 LD
1.9
20
2020 QD1
2020-Aug-23
10.1 LD
13.5
16
2020 PP3
2020-Aug-24
16.2 LD
9.5
36
2020 PJ6
2020-Aug-24
13.9 LD
3.3
27
2020 QE5
2020-Aug-24
17.9 LD
9.1
29
2020 QE2
2020-Aug-25
20 LD
12.6
35
2020 QP1
2020-Aug-25
19.6 LD
8.7
20
2016 AH164
2020-Aug-26
15.7 LD
5.6
4
2020 PF3
2020-Aug-26
6.4 LD
9.6
25
2020 QQ2
2020-Aug-27
8.6 LD
6.2
16
2020 QG5
2020-Sep-01
7.8 LD
14.2
25
2011 ES4
2020-Sep-01
0.3 LD
8.2
30
2020 PG6
2020-Sep-02
5.9 LD
6.6
14
465824
2020-Sep-06
19.4 LD
14
162
2020 PT4
2020-Sep-08
4.9 LD
12.6
37
2012 RM15
2020-Sep-12
14.9 LD
9.8
45
2017 US
2020-Sep-13
17.3 LD
5.9
21
2020 QL2
2020-Sep-14
17.9 LD
10.6
70
2014 QJ33
2020-Sep-18
11.5 LD
8.3
65
2017 SL16
2020-Sep-20
8.9 LD
6.4
25
2001 GP2
2020-Oct-01
6.1 LD
2.2
15
2010 UC
2020-Oct-04
14.6 LD
3.2
12
2019 SB6
2020-Oct-07
11.9 LD
7.6
16
2018 GD2
2020-Oct-13
16.4 LD
6.7
5
2017 UH5
2020-Oct-20
8.9 LD
5.9
18
2018 VG
2020-Oct-21
15.1 LD
6.7
12
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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