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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 294.1 km/sec
density: 14.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3
1953 UT Oct28
24-hr: X1
1535 UT Oct28
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 28 Oct 21
Expand: labels | no labels
Sunspot AR2887 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Any eruptions today will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 91
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 28 Oct 2021

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2021 total: 60 days (20%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 28 Oct 2021


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 6.80
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 25 Oct 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 111 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 28 Oct 2021

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.0% High
48-hr change: +0.4%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 28 Oct 2021 @ 1700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.3 nT
Bz: 1.8 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 28 Oct 21

There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2021 Oct 28 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
60 %
60 %
CLASS X
25 %
25 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2021 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
30 %
MINOR
05 %
10 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
25 %
30 %
SEVERE
25 %
40 %
 
Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021
What's up in space
       
 

Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure!

 

CME UPDATE: First-look images of today's CME are arriving from SOHO now. Take a look. The bulk of the CME appears to be flying south of the sun-Earth line. However, there's still a good chance of an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned as more data become available. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare from Earth-facing sunspot AR2887. The blast at 1535 UT on Oct. 28th created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere:

The blast also hurled a CME into space. Coronagraph images are not yet available, but evidence for a CME is already pursuasive. The USAF reports strong Type II and Type IV radio emissions generated by a CME plowing through the sun's atmosphere. In addition, energetic particles accelerated at the leading edge of a CME have already reached Earth.

When will the CME itself arrive? Assuming that it is Earth directed, probably on Oct. 30th or 31st. Fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs will allow a more precise forecast, so stay tuned.

During the flare, a pulse of X-rays and extreme UV radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout centered on South America:

Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators on the daylit side of Earth may have noticed strange propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.

Sunspot AR2887 may not be finished yet. It has already produced two M-class flares and an X-flare today. The active region is directly facing Earth, so any additional eruptions should be geoeffective. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

more images: from Pepe Manteca of Begues, Barcelona, Spain; from Roucheux Philippe of Joigny, Burgundy, France; from Ofer Gabzo of the Givatayim Observatory, Israel;

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE X-PENDANT: It's the color of a sunburst: The Citrine X-Pendant. On Oct. 15, 2021, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched one to the stratosphere onboard an cosmic ray research balloon. At the apex of the flight it floated 120,892 feet above Earth's surface--a record high for our 10-year ballooning program:

You can have it for $169.95. The citrine gemstone is framed in a 18 K gold-plated swirl with a matching 16-inch chain. The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the necklace in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Oct 28, 2021, the network reported 33 fireballs.
(24 sporadics, 8 Orionids, 1 epsilon Geminid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On October 28, 2021 there were 2226 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2021 UU
2021-Oct-23
4.8 LD
11.2
18
2021 UY
2021-Oct-23
3.8 LD
6
10
2021 TE1
2021-Oct-23
9.4 LD
12.4
47
2021 UT
2021-Oct-24
0.4 LD
11.2
5
2021 UY1
2021-Oct-24
5.5 LD
4.7
9
2021 UO1
2021-Oct-25
0.4 LD
18.6
9
2021 UA1
2021-Oct-25
0 LD
15.8
2
2017 SJ20
2021-Oct-25
18.7 LD
15.7
120
2021 UC2
2021-Oct-25
3.5 LD
7.5
11
2021 UG2
2021-Oct-25
1.2 LD
13.1
10
2021 UV1
2021-Oct-25
2.7 LD
10.8
12
2021 UF2
2021-Oct-25
3.7 LD
4.6
12
2021 TO15
2021-Oct-25
7.3 LD
12.6
33
2019 UW6
2021-Oct-26
8 LD
11.1
17
2021 UC1
2021-Oct-27
12.4 LD
8.2
29
2021 UH1
2021-Oct-27
0.2 LD
6.2
2
2021 UB2
2021-Oct-27
2.5 LD
14.1
13
2021 UX
2021-Oct-27
2.9 LD
18.8
20
2021 UV
2021-Oct-27
2.4 LD
16.1
18
2021 UM1
2021-Oct-28
13.8 LD
7.5
19
2021 UJ1
2021-Oct-28
4.3 LD
9
19
2021 UX1
2021-Oct-28
2.1 LD
3.5
5
2021 UW1
2021-Oct-30
1 LD
13.8
20
2021 UG1
2021-Oct-31
11.5 LD
7.3
34
2021 UL2
2021-Oct-31
8.4 LD
22
20
2019 UH7
2021-Nov-01
9.6 LD
6
11
2009 WY7
2021-Nov-02
19.2 LD
14.7
54
2021 TJ14
2021-Nov-02
19 LD
9.7
41
2017 TS3
2021-Nov-02
13.9 LD
9.9
131
2021 US1
2021-Nov-03
1.9 LD
3.2
10
2021 UD1
2021-Nov-04
16.1 LD
8
27
2005 VL1
2021-Nov-04
17 LD
5.2
18
2021 UU1
2021-Nov-05
1.8 LD
9.3
19
2021 UF1
2021-Nov-06
14.7 LD
10.5
37
2020 KA
2021-Nov-06
14.9 LD
4.8
11
2021 SP3
2021-Nov-08
15.6 LD
9.3
70
2019 XS
2021-Nov-09
1.5 LD
10.7
65
2017 WG14
2021-Nov-10
18.6 LD
11.6
45
2007 VD138
2021-Nov-12
16 LD
7.7
44
2004 UE
2021-Nov-13
11.1 LD
13.2
224
2016 VR
2021-Nov-15
8 LD
8.7
20
2010 VK139
2021-Nov-15
6.4 LD
13.9
65
2019 VL5
2021-Nov-15
8.6 LD
8
23
2016 JG12
2021-Nov-20
14.4 LD
7.5
112
2021 TR15
2021-Nov-20
11.9 LD
7
38
2021 KH2
2021-Nov-21
19.3 LD
6.5
31
3361
2021-Nov-21
15.1 LD
8.1
511
2014 WF201
2021-Nov-24
13.2 LD
5.5
27
2009 WB105
2021-Nov-25
15.1 LD
18.9
71
2019 BB5
2021-Nov-25
18.8 LD
8.3
16
1994 WR12
2021-Nov-29
16.1 LD
8.8
123
4660
2021-Dec-11
10.3 LD
6.6
774
2019 XQ1
2021-Dec-13
14.1 LD
9.1
30
2004 YC
2021-Dec-15
18.4 LD
8.1
27
163899
2021-Dec-17
14.2 LD
5.6
1083
2021 LX3
2021-Dec-18
19.7 LD
6.5
124
2016 YY10
2021-Dec-21
11.3 LD
9.2
23
2017 XQ60
2021-Dec-21
13.7 LD
15.7
47
2016 TR54
2021-Dec-24
16.9 LD
15.5
135
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation:

Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time.

Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.

Technical notes:

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

To get the best views of the cosmos, check out the Phoenix Window Glass Replacement experts for all your window and glass needs

To get an up close view of the heavenly bodies surrounding Earth, think about selling your junk car for cash and buying a high quality telescope.
Spaceweather.com welcomes these supporters of science communication: RV Sales and Arizona SEO and Arizona Business Directory and C8 Corvette | Phoenix Personal Injury Lawyer | Phoenix SEO
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