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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 414.4 km/sec
density: 10.27 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1145 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2
2052 UT Dec28
24-hr: C2
2052 UT Dec28
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 28 Dec 23
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
All of these sunspots have stable magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 78
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 28 Dec 2023

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 28 Dec 2023


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 20.14x1010 W Warm
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 28 Dec 2023

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 149 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 28 Dec 2023

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -4.1% Low
48-hr change: -0.5%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 28 Dec 2023 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0.33 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1.33
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.48 nT
Bz: 1.63 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1145 UT
Coronal Holes: 28 Dec 23

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan 1-2, 2024.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MEERA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On Dec. 28, 2023, the Arctic stratosphere is too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The southern season for NLCs is underway. The first clouds were detected inside the Antarctic Circle on Dec. 4th by the NOAA 21 satellite. An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). For the rest of the season, daily maps from NOAA 21 will be presented here:


Updated: Dec. 28, 2023

Each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2023 Dec 28 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
10 %
10 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2023 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
25 %
25 %
SEVERE
20 %
20 %
 
Thursday, Dec. 28, 2023
What's up in space
       
 

This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by ChatGPT and other Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.

 

BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOT: Helioseismic maps of the farside of the sun continue to show a large hidden sunspot. Based on its current location, the active region will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun early next week. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

THIS COMET IS ABOUT TO BLOW: Ice volcanoes on Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks have erupted half a dozen times in 2023. Astronomers are starting to see a pattern. "The last few outbursts have been on a 15 day cadence," reports Nick James of the British Astronomical Association (BAA), "and we might be coming up to another one." James prepared this plot showing the clockwork quality of recent eruptions:


Inset: Comet 12P on Dec. 14th, date of the most recent outburst. Credit: Eliot Herman.

The last outburst took place sometime around Dec. 14th. That means the next one is due on Dec. 29th or 30th.

Why is the comet erupting every 15 days? Basically, it's because the comet spins with a 2 week period. Somewhere on the comet's surface there is a cryovolcanic vent that gets hit with sunlight with this same cadence.

"It's like 'Old Faithful'," explains Richard Miles of the BAA. "Comet 12P has a super cryogeyser, eruption of which is triggered after local sunrise at its location."

Amateur astronomers are encouraged to monitor 12P in the nights ahead. Precision timing of the next outburst could help astronomers pinpoint the location of the geyser on the comet's surface. Point your optics at the constellation Lyra, right here.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

AMBER DRAGONFLY SPACE PENDANT: This dragonfly has touched space. On Nov. 28th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon, 109,228 feet above California's Sierra Nevada:

You can have it for $179.95. Made of genuine Baltic Amber with a sterling silver exoskeleton, the pendant measures 1 1/4 inch and comes with a matching 18-inch sterling silver chain. The wings of the dragonfly include four pieces of natural amber colored Cognac, Olive Green and Honey Yellow.

The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Dec 28, 2023, the network reported 14 fireballs.
(11 sporadics, 3 December Leonis Minorids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On December 28, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2023 VD6
2023-Dec-23
10.6 LD
15.5
159
2023 YP
2023-Dec-23
0.9 LD
7.7
9
2020 YO3
2023-Dec-23
0.6 LD
16.4
42
2023 XN10
2023-Dec-23
18.4 LD
9.9
65
2023 XD18
2023-Dec-23
3.9 LD
11
17
2023 XN11
2023-Dec-24
9.3 LD
10.4
42
2010 UE51
2023-Dec-24
9 LD
1.3
7
2023 XP13
2023-Dec-24
11.8 LD
18.7
29
2023 YT
2023-Dec-25
6.1 LD
4.4
20
2023 XK16
2023-Dec-25
8.7 LD
7.4
38
2020 YR2
2023-Dec-25
13.8 LD
8
8
2023 XJ3
2023-Dec-25
16.5 LD
9.2
55
2020 KT4
2023-Dec-25
13.4 LD
7.3
76
2023 XO7
2023-Dec-26
6.3 LD
6.7
23
2023 YD
2023-Dec-28
1.6 LD
9.9
27
2023 YZ
2023-Dec-29
10 LD
5.6
28
2023 YM
2023-Dec-30
10.1 LD
12.4
37
2023 XE12
2023-Dec-31
14.7 LD
11.8
42
2021 AM6
2023-Dec-31
18.3 LD
6.6
17
2023 YR
2024-Jan-02
4.5 LD
12.2
39
2019 KK5
2024-Jan-03
10.6 LD
20.9
98
2002 AY1
2024-Jan-08
15.2 LD
17.3
230
2023 XN13
2024-Jan-09
15.8 LD
1.4
8
2023 XT14
2024-Jan-10
12.2 LD
6.4
27
2020 AC1
2024-Jan-11
19.3 LD
5.3
7
2023 WZ3
2024-Jan-11
16.1 LD
4
35
2021 CZ2
2024-Jan-16
8 LD
14.3
113
2021 BL3
2024-Jan-23
17.2 LD
23.4
41
2017 BG92
2024-Jan-25
11.8 LD
6.3
6
2011 CQ1
2024-Jan-26
11.3 LD
4.6
1
2007 EG
2024-Jan-30
16 LD
8.6
43
2008 OS7
2024-Feb-02
7.5 LD
18.2
285
2019 CC5
2024-Feb-04
19.2 LD
15
139
2023 SP1
2024-Feb-07
14.3 LD
11.8
256
2020 DK
2024-Feb-12
8.9 LD
9.9
22
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:

What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Starlink Satellite Statistics
  current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page
The Aerospace Corporation
  Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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