| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 0.33 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 1.33 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 7.48 nT Bz: 1.63 nT north more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1145 UT Coronal Holes: 28 Dec 23 Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan 1-2, 2024. Credit: SDO/AIA Polar Stratospheric Clouds Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MEERA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough: On Dec. 28, 2023, the Arctic stratosphere is too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data. Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for NLCs is underway. The first clouds were detected inside the Antarctic Circle on Dec. 4th by the NOAA 21 satellite. An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). For the rest of the season, daily maps from NOAA 21 will be presented here: Updated: Dec. 28, 2023 Each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies. SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2023 Dec 28 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 10 % | 10 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2023 Dec 28 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 01 % | 01 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 25 % | 25 % | SEVERE | 20 % | 20 % | | | | | | | | | | | | This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by ChatGPT and other Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, artificial, frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being. | | | BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOT: Helioseismic maps of the farside of the sun continue to show a large hidden sunspot. Based on its current location, the active region will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun early next week. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text THIS COMET IS ABOUT TO BLOW: Ice volcanoes on Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks have erupted half a dozen times in 2023. Astronomers are starting to see a pattern. "The last few outbursts have been on a 15 day cadence," reports Nick James of the British Astronomical Association (BAA), "and we might be coming up to another one." James prepared this plot showing the clockwork quality of recent eruptions: Inset: Comet 12P on Dec. 14th, date of the most recent outburst. Credit: Eliot Herman. The last outburst took place sometime around Dec. 14th. That means the next one is due on Dec. 29th or 30th. Why is the comet erupting every 15 days? Basically, it's because the comet spins with a 2 week period. Somewhere on the comet's surface there is a cryovolcanic vent that gets hit with sunlight with this same cadence. "It's like 'Old Faithful'," explains Richard Miles of the BAA. "Comet 12P has a super cryogeyser, eruption of which is triggered after local sunrise at its location." Amateur astronomers are encouraged to monitor 12P in the nights ahead. Precision timing of the next outburst could help astronomers pinpoint the location of the geyser on the comet's surface. Point your optics at the constellation Lyra, right here. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter AMBER DRAGONFLY SPACE PENDANT: This dragonfly has touched space. On Nov. 28th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon, 109,228 feet above California's Sierra Nevada: You can have it for $179.95. Made of genuine Baltic Amber with a sterling silver exoskeleton, the pendant measures 1 1/4 inch and comes with a matching 18-inch sterling silver chain. The wings of the dragonfly include four pieces of natural amber colored Cognac, Olive Green and Honey Yellow. The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Realtime Comet Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Dec 28, 2023, the network reported 14 fireballs. (11 sporadics, 3 December Leonis Minorids) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On December 28, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2023 VD6 | 2023-Dec-23 | 10.6 LD | 15.5 | 159 | 2023 YP | 2023-Dec-23 | 0.9 LD | 7.7 | 9 | 2020 YO3 | 2023-Dec-23 | 0.6 LD | 16.4 | 42 | 2023 XN10 | 2023-Dec-23 | 18.4 LD | 9.9 | 65 | 2023 XD18 | 2023-Dec-23 | 3.9 LD | 11 | 17 | 2023 XN11 | 2023-Dec-24 | 9.3 LD | 10.4 | 42 | 2010 UE51 | 2023-Dec-24 | 9 LD | 1.3 | 7 | 2023 XP13 | 2023-Dec-24 | 11.8 LD | 18.7 | 29 | 2023 YT | 2023-Dec-25 | 6.1 LD | 4.4 | 20 | 2023 XK16 | 2023-Dec-25 | 8.7 LD | 7.4 | 38 | 2020 YR2 | 2023-Dec-25 | 13.8 LD | 8 | 8 | 2023 XJ3 | 2023-Dec-25 | 16.5 LD | 9.2 | 55 | 2020 KT4 | 2023-Dec-25 | 13.4 LD | 7.3 | 76 | 2023 XO7 | 2023-Dec-26 | 6.3 LD | 6.7 | 23 | 2023 YD | 2023-Dec-28 | 1.6 LD | 9.9 | 27 | 2023 YZ | 2023-Dec-29 | 10 LD | 5.6 | 28 | 2023 YM | 2023-Dec-30 | 10.1 LD | 12.4 | 37 | 2023 XE12 | 2023-Dec-31 | 14.7 LD | 11.8 | 42 | 2021 AM6 | 2023-Dec-31 | 18.3 LD | 6.6 | 17 | 2023 YR | 2024-Jan-02 | 4.5 LD | 12.2 | 39 | 2019 KK5 | 2024-Jan-03 | 10.6 LD | 20.9 | 98 | 2002 AY1 | 2024-Jan-08 | 15.2 LD | 17.3 | 230 | 2023 XN13 | 2024-Jan-09 | 15.8 LD | 1.4 | 8 | 2023 XT14 | 2024-Jan-10 | 12.2 LD | 6.4 | 27 | 2020 AC1 | 2024-Jan-11 | 19.3 LD | 5.3 | 7 | 2023 WZ3 | 2024-Jan-11 | 16.1 LD | 4 | 35 | 2021 CZ2 | 2024-Jan-16 | 8 LD | 14.3 | 113 | 2021 BL3 | 2024-Jan-23 | 17.2 LD | 23.4 | 41 | 2017 BG92 | 2024-Jan-25 | 11.8 LD | 6.3 | 6 | 2011 CQ1 | 2024-Jan-26 | 11.3 LD | 4.6 | 1 | 2007 EG | 2024-Jan-30 | 16 LD | 8.6 | 43 | 2008 OS7 | 2024-Feb-02 | 7.5 LD | 18.2 | 285 | 2019 CC5 | 2024-Feb-04 | 19.2 LD | 15 | 139 | 2023 SP1 | 2024-Feb-07 | 14.3 LD | 11.8 | 256 | 2020 DK | 2024-Feb-12 | 8.9 LD | 9.9 | 22 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low: What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page | | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather | | When looking for casinos to play online when the weather is bad, you can try the SkyCity Online Casino if you are located in New Zealand. If you are not from NZ you can try the Swedish page Svenska casino online to find suitable games, check out svenskacasinoonline.net. 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