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INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Days of low solar activity might soon come to an end. Sunspot AR3842 has developed a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of X-flares and a 55% chance of M-class flares during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
A BIG NEW SUNGRAZING COMET: Astronomers are monitoring a new comet discovered just a few days ago by the ATLAS survey. It's so new, it doesn't have a name yet. Provisionally designated "A11bP7I," the comet appears to be a relatively large sungrazer on course to become a bright naked-eye object in late October. Dennis Möller, Michael Jäger and Gerald Rhemann photographed the new discovery last night in Namibia:
"We are here in Namibia to observe Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS," says Jäger. "The new sungrazing comet was discovered not far away, so we took a look. It is already 11th mag with a 2' green coma and a short tail."
The orbit and brightness of A11bP7I remind experts of Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3), a sungrazer that flew through the sun's atmosphere in Dec. 2011. Comet Lovejoy emerged from the close encounter intact and put on a spectacular show for amateur astronomers during the Christmas holidays of that year.
Like Lovejoy (pictured below), the new comet is a member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments from the breakup of a giant comet ~1000 years ago. Every day, several fragments pass by the sun and disintegrate; indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have discovered thousands of them. As a rule, they are very small, but A11bP7I could be an exception--a big fragment that survives the heat and becomes visible to the naked eye.
Comet Lovejoy photographed on Dec. 23, 2011, by Lester Barnes of Port Lincoln, South Australia
Experts have also noted a similarity between the orbits of A11bP7I and Great Comet Ikeya–Seki (C/1965 S1). In 1965, Ikeya–Seki became so bright when it passed by the sun that it was visible in broad daylight at magnitude -10. Japanese observers famously saw it at high noon.
Sungrazing comet expert Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab sounds a note of caution: "While I hope with all my heart for an Ikeya-Seki 2.0, this could be a smaller Kreutz fragment that has simply erupted a little ahead of schedule [making us think it is bigger and brighter than it actually is]. Comparisons with Ikeya-Seki should be treated with extreme caution, but something akin to Comet Lovejoy is certainly not out of the question"
MEANWHILE, COMET TSUCHINSHAN-ATLAS: A11bP7I may or may not become a bright comet. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (C/2023 A3) already is. Eduardo Schaberger Poupeau sends this Sept. 29th selfie from Rafaela, Argentina:
"I couldn't resist capturing the moment," says Poupeau. "Sharing the frame with a comet made me feel part of something much bigger, fleeting, and magnificent at the same time."
Now visible in the early morning sky, Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is about to pass between Earth and the sun, shifting from September mornings to October evenings. Closest approach to Earth: Oct. 12th. By then it could be a beautiful naked-eye comet as bright as a first-magnitude star at dusk.
Recommended reading: Comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS looking good for October by Nick James of the British Astronomical Association.
Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
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ASTRONAUT SNOOPY COFFEE CUP: Coffee tastes better in a cup that's been to space. On July 16th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched the 'I Need My Space' Snoopy cup to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon. Here it is floating more than 105,315 feet above Earth's surface:
You can have it for $99.95. It's Peanuts for a cup from space! The students are selling Snoopy cups to support their cosmic ray monitoring program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the cup in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Sep 29, 2024, the network reported 6 fireballs.
(6 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On September 30, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2024 SE3 | 2024-Sep-25 | 1.2 LD | 10.7 | 19 |
| 2024 SG | 2024-Sep-25 | 2.9 LD | 8.9 | 13 |
| 2024 RK7 | 2024-Sep-25 | 17.8 LD | 6.3 | 32 |
| 2024 SZ2 | 2024-Sep-25 | 12.6 LD | 14.2 | 24 |
| 2024 SF | 2024-Sep-25 | 12.1 LD | 23.1 | 55 |
| 2024 SN | 2024-Sep-26 | 10.2 LD | 6.8 | 12 |
| 2024 SG4 | 2024-Sep-26 | 0.8 LD | 10 | 12 |
| 2024 SS1 | 2024-Sep-26 | 0.7 LD | 12.6 | 8 |
| 2024 SV3 | 2024-Sep-26 | 1.7 LD | 11.8 | 18 |
| 2024 SW3 | 2024-Sep-26 | 4.1 LD | 9.6 | 14 |
| 2024 RW25 | 2024-Sep-27 | 16.1 LD | 9.8 | 27 |
| 2024 RP15 | 2024-Sep-27 | 17.6 LD | 9.9 | 29 |
| 2024 SL2 | 2024-Sep-27 | 15.2 LD | 10.5 | 37 |
| 2011 ST12 | 2024-Sep-27 | 17.6 LD | 7.4 | 19 |
| 2024 SN4 | 2024-Sep-27 | 2.6 LD | 16.4 | 17 |
| 2024 SM1 | 2024-Sep-27 | 10.3 LD | 7.7 | 9 |
| 2024 SY2 | 2024-Sep-27 | 19.8 LD | 8.7 | 23 |
| 2024 SS4 | 2024-Sep-27 | 2.4 LD | 10.4 | 12 |
| 2024 SG1 | 2024-Sep-27 | 2.3 LD | 17 | 11 |
| 2024 SC1 | 2024-Sep-27 | 4 LD | 9.8 | 11 |
| 2024 SD1 | 2024-Sep-27 | 5.3 LD | 10.1 | 7 |
| 2024 SB1 | 2024-Sep-28 | 12.8 LD | 8 | 14 |
| 2024 SE | 2024-Sep-28 | 7.6 LD | 10.9 | 46 |
| 2024 SR | 2024-Sep-28 | 3.1 LD | 16.9 | 30 |
| 2024 SQ | 2024-Sep-28 | 3.2 LD | 12.9 | 24 |
| 2024 SV2 | 2024-Sep-28 | 0.1 LD | 11.5 | 7 |
| 2024 ST1 | 2024-Sep-28 | 3.9 LD | 16.4 | 11 |
| 2024 SC3 | 2024-Sep-29 | 5.9 LD | 7.4 | 18 |
| 2024 SU1 | 2024-Sep-29 | 4.9 LD | 17.3 | 17 |
| 2024 SE2 | 2024-Sep-29 | 6.3 LD | 8.8 | 13 |
| 2024 SK | 2024-Sep-29 | 5.6 LD | 4.4 | 10 |
| 2024 SC | 2024-Sep-30 | 4.3 LD | 17.9 | 95 |
| 2024 SX1 | 2024-Sep-30 | 16.4 LD | 5.1 | 17 |
| 2024 SJ1 | 2024-Oct-01 | 15.2 LD | 10.6 | 16 |
| 2024 RN15 | 2024-Oct-01 | 8.4 LD | 7.2 | 31 |
| 2024 RH45 | 2024-Oct-01 | 5 LD | 8.2 | 37 |
| 2024 RO2 | 2024-Oct-02 | 4.2 LD | 9.2 | 37 |
| 2024 RJ16 | 2024-Oct-02 | 18.2 LD | 6.9 | 24 |
| 2024 SV | 2024-Oct-02 | 20.1 LD | 6.2 | 24 |
| 2024 SS | 2024-Oct-02 | 5.7 LD | 7.5 | 25 |
| 2024 SR4 | 2024-Oct-03 | 7 LD | 11.6 | 16 |
| 2024 SD3 | 2024-Oct-03 | 3.9 LD | 18.2 | 22 |
| 2024 SR1 | 2024-Oct-04 | 5.7 LD | 5.9 | 13 |
| 2024 SY4 | 2024-Oct-04 | 9.8 LD | 4.9 | 10 |
| 2024 RJ32 | 2024-Oct-05 | 7.7 LD | 6.6 | 45 |
| 2024 SL3 | 2024-Oct-05 | 8.2 LD | 12.6 | 19 |
| 2023 GM1 | 2024-Oct-05 | 15.4 LD | 5.2 | 13 |
| 2024 SZ1 | 2024-Oct-05 | 11 LD | 20.2 | 35 |
| 2014 VA | 2024-Oct-05 | 18.1 LD | 6.3 | 46 |
| 2024 SH3 | 2024-Oct-05 | 19 LD | 8.2 | 24 |
| 2022 SU21 | 2024-Oct-06 | 17.5 LD | 21.1 | 45 |
| 2022 FC5 | 2024-Oct-06 | 16.2 LD | 19.3 | 39 |
| 2024 SU3 | 2024-Oct-07 | 5.6 LD | 9.1 | 23 |
| 671076 | 2024-Oct-07 | 12.8 LD | 8.6 | 120 |
| 2016 JG38 | 2024-Oct-08 | 13.2 LD | 12 | 56 |
| 2018 QE | 2024-Oct-09 | 1.7 LD | 4.4 | 10 |
| 2024 SM | 2024-Oct-10 | 7.4 LD | 6.7 | 30 |
| 363027 | 2024-Oct-12 | 9.3 LD | 16.6 | 419 |
| 2020 GE1 | 2024-Oct-12 | 20.1 LD | 4.3 | 14 |
| 2022 UX1 | 2024-Oct-12 | 19.9 LD | 9.9 | 9 |
| 2008 UU95 | 2024-Oct-12 | 13.5 LD | 15.6 | 66 |
| 2024 SM4 | 2024-Oct-13 | 18.9 LD | 13.8 | 61 |
| 2021 TK11 | 2024-Oct-14 | 8 LD | 10.6 | 7 |
| 2022 TB41 | 2024-Oct-15 | 10 LD | 6 | 4 |
| 2024 SD2 | 2024-Oct-16 | 10.1 LD | 6.1 | 28 |
| 2019 UH14 | 2024-Oct-17 | 8.3 LD | 10.4 | 62 |
| 2024 RV50 | 2024-Oct-18 | 19.4 LD | 15.6 | 215 |
| 2024 SH1 | 2024-Oct-20 | 6.4 LD | 2.7 | 14 |
| 2024 SE4 | 2024-Oct-22 | 6.9 LD | 2.2 | 10 |
| 2015 HM1 | 2024-Oct-24 | 14.4 LD | 10.9 | 32 |
| 363305 | 2024-Oct-24 | 11.8 LD | 4.9 | 186 |
| 2021 UE2 | 2024-Oct-24 | 13.6 LD | 7.1 | 40 |
| 2023 TG14 | 2024-Oct-24 | 6.6 LD | 6.9 | 24 |
| 2007 UT3 | 2024-Oct-26 | 17.7 LD | 10.4 | 23 |
| 2020 WG | 2024-Oct-28 | 8.7 LD | 9.4 | 160 |
| 2021 CV1 | 2024-Oct-30 | 14.4 LD | 23.6 | 38 |
| 2023 KX3 | 2024-Oct-31 | 18.8 LD | 2.4 | 25 |
| 2022 UD21 | 2024-Oct-31 | 11.4 LD | 11.8 | 27 |
| 2016 VA | 2024-Nov-01 | 1.5 LD | 21.2 | 11 |
| 2023 VS | 2024-Nov-04 | 15.2 LD | 4.3 | 4 |
| 2022 JM | 2024-Nov-06 | 19.7 LD | 6.2 | 6 |
| 2019 WB7 | 2024-Nov-11 | 17.3 LD | 5.7 | 47 |
| 2020 UL3 | 2024-Nov-12 | 4.1 LD | 10.5 | 81 |
| 2020 AB2 | 2024-Nov-13 | 18.9 LD | 7.2 | 14 |
| 2019 VU5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 12 LD | 23.3 | 46 |
| 2019 VL5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 9.6 LD | 8.5 | 24 |
| 2023 WK3 | 2024-Nov-18 | 16.1 LD | 14.5 | 272 |
| 2012 KO11 | 2024-Nov-20 | 6.2 LD | 9.4 | 43 |
| 2020 VX4 | 2024-Nov-20 | 10.5 LD | 10.5 | 11 |
| 2009 WB105 | 2024-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 |
| 2006 WB | 2024-Nov-26 | 2.3 LD | 4.2 | 98 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
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| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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